Книги

Based on the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) approach this paper provides an assessment of the competitive position of the Hungarian agro-food industry in view of EU integration. The situation in the food processing sector is assessed with the use of actual cost data from representative Hungarian companies. The paper presents an assessment of the current situation prior to EU integration as well as a future outlook under various scenarios with regard to the expected policy environment and the rate of technological change. The actual measurement of competitiveness in this study focuses mainly on Private Resource Cost (PRC) which indicates competitiveness under real market conditions and Domestic Resource Cost (DRC) which gives an assessment on the social or economic efficiency of an activity, i.e. whether domestic resources are really used efficiently in current production. In the food processing sector 21 different food products have been investigated which fall into four industries: meat, poultry, dairy, and fruits and vegetables. Under current conditions only some products are competitive in private terms. The situation would improve after EU integration especially for poultry, fruits and vegetables, because agricultural policy conditions are more favourable under the CAP. If additional FDI(Foreign Direct Investments) would flow into the country after EU membership, this would boost profitability. As far as DRC values are concerned, it must be stated that only some of the production activities are clearly efficient. Dairy, fruits and vegetables, and roast goose production show relatively weak social competitiveness, while other poultry and fruit and vegetables products are more favourable from the economic point of view. As EU policies provide on average higher protection levels, the competitiveness of Hungarian food processing on world markets would deteriorate for most products after EU accession. However, these effects can be offset by additional technological change due to FDI inflows or otherwise induced technological progress.

A modelling system is presented and used to analyse the impact of milk quota abolishment on Dutch agriculture and economy. The modelling system consists of a regionalised, agri-environmental, partial equilibrium, mathematical programming model of agriculture supply in the Netherlands integrated into a mixed input-output model. It was found that abolition of the milk quota system has large impacts on milk production and livestock numbers and composition. The latter is explained by the strict mineral and manure policies in the Netherlands; an increase in the numbers of dairy cows leaves less room for other livestock. It is also found that, although the total effect on gross value added in the Dutch economy is limited, the effects for individual industries can be large.

This study deals with horizontal product differentiation in the Polish pig meat market. Hypothesis among firms behaviour are derived from an illustrative model and tested in an empirical analysis using data from 1991-1998. The empirical analysis suggest that product differentiation is a relevant phenomenon in the polish pig meat markets. In addition we found that costs and competitions are important factors influencing price variation. However, further influences like price discrimination and vertical product differentiation are also important determinants for product price variations.

In order to understand the future of food supply and demand and food security, it is essential to focus on the long-term, fundamental drivers, such as income and population growth, and technological change in agriculture as influenced by investments in agricultural research, irrigation, and other factors.

In the remainder of this paper we take a new look into the future role of agricultural research and technology development in world food markets based on alternative scenario simulations with IFPRI’s IMPACT model. The paper starts out by very briefly describing the model, and then presents and discusses alternative scenarios with a focus on the role of technological change.