Экономика » Экономика отраслевых рынков » Аграрная экономика » Рынки агропродовольственной продукции
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 8
Книги
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Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Paul Dorosh, Moataz El-Said, Hans Lofgren
2003
In Uganda, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, poverty is concentrated in
rural areas. Because agriculture
accounts for a large share of incomes for these households, policies and
external shocks that affect
agriculture, including shifts in world prices, changes in agricultural productivity,
and reductions in marketing
costs, may have significant effects on rural poverty. In this paper, we use a Computable
General Equilibrium
(CGE) model of the Ugandan economy, explicitly designed to capture regional
variations in agricultural
production and household incomes, to examine the implications of these policy changes
and shocks.
Simulation results suggest that a doubling of area planted to coffee (the government.s target) would increase rural consumption by less than 2.0 percent, because of an estimated 10 percent decline in the world price of robusta coffee and an 11.3 percent real exchange rate appreciation of the Ugandan shilling. Smaller productivity increases in food crops may have greater potential to raise rural incomes, provided that markets perform well and producer incentives are maintained. A five percent increase in agricultural productivity raises consumption by 1.3 to 2.1 percent among rural households and lowers food prices by 3.4 to 3.8 percent relative to the CPI, thus benefiting households with high food consumption shares. Reducing agricultural marketing margins by 30 percent leads to increases of 2.3 to 4.1 percent in consumption of farm households, with the largest gains in regions where consumption out of own production is lower.
Simulation results suggest that a doubling of area planted to coffee (the government.s target) would increase rural consumption by less than 2.0 percent, because of an estimated 10 percent decline in the world price of robusta coffee and an 11.3 percent real exchange rate appreciation of the Ugandan shilling. Smaller productivity increases in food crops may have greater potential to raise rural incomes, provided that markets perform well and producer incentives are maintained. A five percent increase in agricultural productivity raises consumption by 1.3 to 2.1 percent among rural households and lowers food prices by 3.4 to 3.8 percent relative to the CPI, thus benefiting households with high food consumption shares. Reducing agricultural marketing margins by 30 percent leads to increases of 2.3 to 4.1 percent in consumption of farm households, with the largest gains in regions where consumption out of own production is lower.


Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
Steen Koekebakker, Gudbrand Lien
2002
Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed
distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence
that the
volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time
and time to
maturity. This paper extends Bates (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by
including both
seasonal and maturity effects in volatility. An in-sample fit to market option prices
on wheat
futures shows that our model outperforms previous models considered in the literature.
A
numerical example illustrates the economic significance of our results for option
valuation.


Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2003
John C. Beghin, Jean-Christophe Bureau, Sophie Drogue
Durban, 2003
We introduce an easily implemented and flexible calibration technique for
partial demand systems,
combining recent developments in incomplete demand systems and a set of restrictions
conditioned on the
available elasticity-estimates. The technique accommodates various degrees
of knowledge on cross-price
elasticities, satisfies curvature restrictions, and allows the recovery of an exact
welfare measure for policy
analysis. The technique is illustrated with a partial demand system for
food consumption in Korea for
different states of knowledge on cross-price effects. The consumer welfare impact
of food and agricultural
trade liberalization is measured.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Ред.: John M. Antle, Vincent H. Smith
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000, 300 с.
В книге анализируется современная ситуация на рынке пшеницы, основные страны экспортёры
и импортёры, даётся прогноз развития международного рынка. Авторы уделяют внимание
таким странам, как Россия и Китай, чья роль на мировом рынке пшеницы значительно
изменилась за последнее время. Анализируются и стратегии традиционных экспортёров
пшеницы на мировом рынке - США, ЕС, Канады, Аргентины и Австралии. Поведение и развитие
рынка пшеницы рассматривается через призму международных торговых соглашений. Под
редакцией Д.Антл и В.Смит.

Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Michael Kopsidis
Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000, 221-238 с.
Regional grain production in the Russian Federation has developed in a number of
different ways over the last years. The same is true for grain marketing. Not only
the prices on local markets but also those in the nation-wide grain trade seem to
be at least strongly influenced by regional authorities.
However, it is very likely that only a small part of the grain trade is exchanged interregionally. The growing independence of the Russian Federation’s political subjects seems to be primarily responsible for regional differences concerning grain production and marketing. The 1998 economic crisis is likely to obstruct the development of an efficient domestic grain market further.
However, it is very likely that only a small part of the grain trade is exchanged interregionally. The growing independence of the Russian Federation’s political subjects seems to be primarily responsible for regional differences concerning grain production and marketing. The 1998 economic crisis is likely to obstruct the development of an efficient domestic grain market further.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-12-2003
Tim Lloyd, Steve McCorriston, Wyn Morgan, Tony Rayner
Durban, 2003
This paper is concerned with the impact of the BSE crisis in the UK
and focuses on price transmission
between retail and farm prices. From a theoretical perspective we show that market
power has an effect on
price transmission between retail and farm prices following a demand shock. The empirical
results suggest
that the impact of a food scare on farm prices to be more than double that of retail
prices, the direction of this
effect being consistent with the impact of oligopoly dominating the effect (if any)
of oligopsony.
However, important in assessing the full impact of a food scare is the ability of consumers to switch into substitute products. This is also evident following the BSE crisis with the availability of substitutes contributing significantly to the overall impact on price adjustment.
However, important in assessing the full impact of a food scare is the ability of consumers to switch into substitute products. This is also evident following the BSE crisis with the availability of substitutes contributing significantly to the overall impact on price adjustment.


Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
John Helming, Jack Peerlings
2002
A modelling system is presented and used to analyse the impact of milk quota
abolishment on Dutch agriculture and economy. The modelling system consists of a
regionalised, agri-environmental, partial equilibrium, mathematical programming
model of agriculture supply in the Netherlands integrated into a mixed input-output
model. It was found that abolition of the milk quota system has large impacts on
milk
production and livestock numbers and composition. The latter is explained by the
strict mineral and manure policies in the Netherlands; an increase in the numbers
of
dairy cows leaves less room for other livestock. It is also found that, although
the total
effect on gross value added in the Dutch economy is limited, the effects for individual
industries can be large.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Arjan Ruijs, Caspar Schweigman, Clemens Lutz
2003
Reductions in transport and transaction costs are expected to have a major effect
on the functioning of food
markets in developing countries. For many developing countries, this is
a relevant issue as it may have
important consequences for the food markets in urban and rural deficit areas. A partial
equilibrium model is
presented to analyze the effects of reduced costs on cereal price formation, inter-regional
cereal trade, and
farmers' and traders' storage strategies for the case of Burkina Faso. Our results
show that the high
expectations with regard to the direct effects of cost reductions on food prices
and food availability require
some nuance. First, the effects of even a huge reduction of transport costs only
will be small. Secondly, an
element which is often neglected is that constructing a road between two
cities may have unintended
negative consequences on the competitive position of farmers and traders
in other regions. Finally, it is
concluded that only if transport and transaction costs are reduced simultaneously,
both consumers and
farmers will benefit significantly.

