Книги

The 15 member states of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) departed all from the same system and pursue similar goals in the transition process. Hence, this paper discusses the economic development of these countries and evaluates the state it has reached so far.

The analysis indicates that while all the CIS countries have bilateral agreements only some countries have realized that the CIS is in fact in some ways beneficial for them. In fact, the economies of the CIS countries are very closely interrelated. However, the search for a new identity and the problem of ethnic heterogeneity have led to a strengthening of national borders. The tendency towards ethnic segregation is also a threat in the Russian Federation which could aggravate the vacuum of power as well as the economic crisis in the entire region.

Proposals for agricultural trade reform put forward by the main protagonists remain far apart, with little sign of convergence. In an attempt to progress the negotiations towards a successful outcome, the chairman of the WTO Committee on Agriculture has proposed a compromise. The alternative proposals by the United States, the European Union and the WTO are analysed with the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model, a static, multi-commodity, multi-region, partial equilibrium trade model. The estimated annual global welfare gains are $26 billion, $12 billion and $17 billion respectively. Least developed countries, as a group, gain from the US proposal but are made worse off under the WTO and EU proposals. Furthermore, in the best case many individual countries experience welfare losses. However, all countries enjoy increased export revenues and tariff revenues hold up quite well under the two less stringent proposals.