Книги

This paper examines the extent of interregional integration of Russian food markets from different perspectives. Though food price levels in Russia are converging after the period of hyperinflation, remote regions like the Far East seem to be on a different price path. With regard to the interregional commodity flows, it could be shown that interregional transportation of grain is unlikely to have decreased significantly, if the figures are corrected for imports and feed use. But a cross-sectional regression analysis using differences between regional production and consumption revealed that regional surpluses as well as deficits for all products tend to diminish, which means that the Russian regions increasingly rely on their regional production and not on interregional trade.

The collapse of the former Soviet Union has led to a sharp decline in the trading of agricultural products between its successor states. There have been attempts to revive these trade relations by means of bilateral and regional trade agreements. In addition, almost all member states of the CIS are in the process of negotiating accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Because of its size and agricultural production potential, the Russian Federation is of primary importance in this respect. The integration of the Russian Federation in the world economy, which is expected to result from its accession to the WTO, will have a sizeable impact not only on its own agricultural sector, but also on the world markets for agricultural products.

The paper analyzes the impact of different agricultural trade policies on Russia’s bilateral trade patterns, price and quantity changes, and welfare effects for producers, consumers, and the state budget. Three experiments are simulated using a partial equilibrium model based on the Armington approach. The results show that the current situation of import tariff-free trade between Russia and other CIS countries has small positive welfare effects for the Russian Federation in comparison to a situation where import tariffs between these countries were to be imposed.

However, according to the results, an elimination of import tariffs against all trading partners is preferable for Russia in terms of net welfare. An increase in discriminatory trade barriers against non-CIS countries would cause overall welfare losses for the Russian economy.