Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 20
Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart
With many emerging market currencies tied to the U.S. dollar either implicitly or explicitly, movements in the exchange values of the currencies of major countries have the potential to influence the competitive position of many developing countries. According to some analysts, establishing target bands to reduce the variability of the G-3 currencies would limit those destabilizing shocks emanating from abroad. This paper examines the argument for such a target zone strictly from an emerging market perspective. Given that sterilized intervention by industrial economies tends to be ineffective and that policy makers show no appetite to return to the controls on international capital flows that helped keep exchange rates stable over the Bretton Woods era, a commitment to damping G-3 exchange rate fluctuations requires a willingness on the part of G-3 authorities to use domestic monetary policy to that end. Under a system of target zones, then, relative prices for emerging market economies may become more stable, but debt-servicing costs may become less predictable. We use a simple trade model to show that the resulting consequences for welfare are ambiguous. Our empirical work supplements the traditional literature on North-South links by examining the importance of the volatilities of G-3 exchange-rates, and U.S. interest rate and consumption on capital flows and economic growth in developing countries over the past thirty years.
Razin A. A Brazilian debt-crisis model / A. Razin, E. Sadka. Tel Aviv: Tel Aviv University, 2002. (NBER Working Paper; No. 9211). [книга]
Опубликовано на портале: 21-01-2004
Authors develop a model that captures important features of debt crises of the Brazilian type. Its applicability to Brazil lies in the fact that (1) in Brazil the macro fundamentals were sound (e.g., a primary surplus, a relatively low debt/GDP ratio, etc.); and (2) in the Brazilian case the trigger appears to be the forthcoming elections, with an expected regime change.
Sanchez-Fung J. R. Money demand, PPP and macroeconomic dynamics in a small developing economy [Текст] / J. R. Sanchez-Fung. Canterbury ; Kent : Department of Economics University of Kent, 2000. 26 p. (Discussion paper ; 00/15). [книга]
Опубликовано на портале: 30-07-2004
This paper aims at improving our understanding of macro-monetary phenomena in developing countries. Specifically, it analyses a six-variable model of the Dominican Republic by implementing the cointegrating VAR framework, using annual data for the period 1950-1999. The inquiry is able to identify money demand and PPP cointegrating relationships that are economically and statistically sensible, displaying half-life persistence profiles of approximately one and three years, respectively. Additionally, generalised impulse response functions observed after shocking the money demand relation suggest that there is scope for activist monetary policy, while those derived from perturbations to PPP show that real exchange rate depreciations generate both contractionary and inflationary developments.
Uribe M. Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability [Текст] / M. Uribe. Cambridge : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002. 31 p. (NBER working paper series ; 9294). [книга]
Опубликовано на портале: 15-07-2004
Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling revisions in expectations. The result is shown to obtain in both flexible- and sticky-price environments.
Посткоммунистическая Россия в контексте мирового социально-экономического развития / Материалы Международной конференции «Посткоммунистическая Россия в контексте мирового социально-экономического развити», Москва, 2000 г. (Научные труды ИЭПП № 26) [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2006
Москва: Ин-т экономики переходного периода, 2001
В настоящем сборнике опубликованы материалы международной конференции «Посткоммунистическая Россия в контексте мирового социально-экономического развития», приуроченной к десятилетию создания Института экономики переходного периода, прошедшей в Москве 1-2 декабря 2000 года.