Экономика » Экономика отраслевых рынков » Аграрная экономика » Международная торговля агропродовольственной продукцией
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 19
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Опубликовано на портале: 28-11-2003
Ana-Maria Aldanondo, Javier Puertolas
2002
In this paper we use a general equilibrium model to examine the effects of international
quota transfer when a quota restricts world commodity production whilst the trade
in an
intermediate good is not regulated. The analysis shows that, when the quota regime
is
not internationally transferable, intermediate input trade substitutes for final
good trade.
In these circumstances, the distortions are lower than expected. International quota
transfer increases world welfare proportionally to quota rent gap. Welfare distribution
is also conditioned by commodity terms of trade and, particularly, by the outcome
of the
intermediate good price.


Опубликовано на портале: 28-11-2003
Giovanni Anania
2002
The paper shows how analyses assuming perfect competition can yield a distorted estimation
of
the expected effects of a trade liberalization when market imperfections exist. The
analytical
framework adopted is very simple and three extreme imperfect market structures are
considered.
In the first case, the exporting country maximizes its producer and consumer surplus
by intervening
in the world market. The second market imperfection considered is the existence of
a private firm
playing the role of “pure middleman” in the world market. Then the case
of a producer-owned
marketing board which is granted exclusive export authority is addressed. It is shown
that under
all three scenarios, if perfect competition is assumed when market imperfections
exist, the impact of
a tariff reduction on prices and volume traded is overestimated. A ranking of the
size of such
distortions in the three cases analyzed is provided. Finally, it is proved that when
a private firm
exerts monopoly and monopsony power in the world market, both the importing and the
exporting countries may well be better off if, rather than making a move towards
trade liberalization, the
importing country “compensates” the exporting country by means of a direct
transfer.


Опубликовано на портале: 28-11-2003
Christian Bjornskov, Kim Martin Lind
2002
In the wake of the November 2001 Ministerial Conference in Doha, the positions of
most members
of the World Trade Organisation diverge, reflecting a large extent of disagreement
within the
organisation. This paper attempts to organise these positions and thereby inspire
a debate on the
possibility of collusion in the coming round of trade negotiations with a particular
focus on the
options of developing countries. Members’ positions on a range of issues identified
as important in
the coming round are rated and used as inputs in a correlation analysis and two forms
of cluster
analyses to identify potential alliances between members with reasonably similar
positions. The
paper identifies nine clusters of countries that are internally similar. Among these
clusters, the
positions of most developing countries are most similar to the positions of the so-called
Cairns
group and the US, whereas the European Union and Norway are significantly isolated
and
positioned far away from the developing countries. The paper concludes that developing
countries
have opportunities of forming alliances with specific developed countries in order
to promote their
trade objectives in the coming round of negotiations.


Опубликовано на портале: 28-11-2003
Jean-Christophe Bureau, Luca Salvatici
2002
This paper provides a summary measure of the possible new commitments in the area
of market access undertaken by the European Union and the United States, using the
Trade
Restrictiveness Index (TRI) as the tariff aggregator. Indicators such as the TRI,
based on welfare
theory, integrate economic behavioural assumptions within a balance of trade framework.
We
take the 2000 bound tariffs as the starting point and attempt to assess how much
liberalisation in
agriculture could be achieved in the European Union and the United States as a result
of the
present negotiations. We compute the index for agricultural commodity aggregates
assuming a
specific (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) functional form for import demand.
The present
levels of the TRI under the actual commitments of the Uruguay Round are computed
and
compared with three hypothetical cases: a repetition of the same set of commitments
of the
Uruguay Round, a uniform 36 percent reduction of each tariff, an harmonization formula
based
on the “sliding scale” scheme. This makes it possible to infer how reducing
tariff dispersion
would help improve market access in future trade agreements.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Anwar F. Chishti, Waqar Malik
2002
A theory-based graphical analysis of WTO’s trade liberalization policies (opening
of
close-economy to international trade and cuts in price-supports, import-tariffs and
exportsubsidies)
suggests that most of such policies would yield net social gains to the society,
as a
whole. The adverse effects and losses in producer surpluses of some of the policies
would be
balanced out by greater gains in consumer surpluses and vice versa. Losses in producer
surpluses
due to cuts in price supports and import tariffs are also expected to be partially
subsided by
reductions in export subsidies mainly granted by the USA and EU; hence, policies
need to be
enforced, not in isolation, but in a simultaneous fashion.
Trade liberalization would help minimize control of individuals on trade, leave less
room
for individual policy makers, tax collectors and interest groups to exploit situations
in their own
interest and lead the economy to be run in accordance with the supply and demand
forces based
on the last lasting general tendency of human nature. This would help to achieve
a sustainable
and stable agricultural growth; however, more durable sustained growth would depend
as how
effectively trade liberalization is pursued and enforced the world over. Opening
of closed
economy for exportables, and withdrawal of export subsidies by foreign exporters
would be proproducers
and would directly contribute to poverty alleviation. Opening of economy for
importables, withdrawal of price supports and tariff-cuts on imports would yield
savings to
consumers and would positively contribute towards poverty reduction.


Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
Bruno Henry De Frahan, Christian Tritten
2002
This paper proposes a partial equilibrium displacement model that differentiates
wheat
according to its end-use and country of origin to investigate the impact of alternative
European trade
policies on wheat supply and demand in France. Transmission, demand and supply elasticities
are
estimated for each class and origin of wheat. Simulation results show that rebalancing
trade protection
across wheat classes encourages domestic supply of high quality wheat and displaces
imports from
North America.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Jay Fabiosa, John C. Beghin, Stephane de Cara, Cheng Fang, Murat Isik, Holger Matthey
2003
Using a partial equilibrium model of world agriculture, we investigate the multilateral
removal of all border
taxes and farm programs and their distortion of world agricultural markets. These
distortions have significant
terms-of-trade effects. World trade is also significantly impacted by both
types of distortions. Trade
expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable
oils. Net agricultural
and food exporters (Brazil, Australia, and Argentina) emerge with expanded exports;
whereas net importing
countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by
higher world markets prices and
reduced imports. The US gains significant export shares in livestock products
and imports more dairy
products. Without protection and domestic subsidies, the EU loses many
of its livestock and dairy export
markets.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Imre Ferto, Lionel G. Hubbard
2003
We analyse the evolving pattern of Hungary.s agri-food trade using recently developed
empirical procedures
based on the classic Balassa index and its symmetric transformation. The
extent of trade specialisation
exhibits a declining trend; Hungary lost comparative advantage for a number
of product groups over the
1990s. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular
product groups, the picture
is mixed: indices are reasonably stable for product groups with comparative
disadvantage, but those with
weak to strong comparative advantage show significant variation. The results
reinforce the finding of a
general decrease in specialisation, but do not support the idea of self-reinforcing
mechanisms, emphasised
strongly in much of the endogenous growth and trade literature.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Atanu Ghoshray, Tim Lloyd
2003
This paper brings time series techniques to bear on the relationships between the
prices of the principal types
of wheat traded internationally. In all, the relationships between eleven wheat prices
(categorised by wheat
quality, harvest date and port of despatch) are scrutinised to uncover
the structure of the wheat market
implicit in the behaviour its prices reveal. The statistical evidence supports the
notion of a highly integrated
market that is segmented according to wheat strength . the principal determinant
of end-use. Three segments
are identified: a market for "strong" (bread-making) wheat, another for
"weak" (confectionary products-
making) wheat and a third for medium strength wheat suitable for unleavened breads
and noodles. Whilst
informative, market integration - detected by cointegration among prices . is not
altogether surprising, yet
the presence of cointegration implies a causal structure, which is of more cogent
interest. Among a number
of complementary techniques, linkages are uncovered using an innovative
concept of irreducible
cointegration vectors (Davidson 1998, Barassi et al 2001) which provides new evidence
on price linkages.
Statistical evidence is robust and not test-dependent. Specifically, we find a dominant
price leader in each
sub-market. In terms of its pricing, the EU is found to play a passive role in the
world market, confirming a
widely held view.


Опубликовано на портале: 28-11-2003
A. Gracia, Mehrez Ameur
2002
Agrifood firms operate in a more global, saturated and competitive market than
other manufacturing firms, and they have smaller size. These firms certainly need
to
define appropriate strategies related to accessing the international market and to
investing in innovative activities. This two decisions are related to firms size
because as
Krugman states international trade is not only explained by differences in technology
between countries but also by firms’ desire to extend their sales in foreign
markets to
take advantage of the economies of scales. Therefore, it seems to exist a simultaneous
relation between firm size, exports and innovative activities.
The aim of this paper is to analyse agrifood firms’ decisions on these three
strategies: export behaviour, innovative activities and firm’s size in comparison
to other
manufacturing firms using some modification from the simultaneous model defined by
Entorf and Pohlmeier. The study is focused on the Spanish manufactured firms taking
special attention to the agri-food ones. Data come from a National Survey (“Encuesta
de
Estrategias Empresariales”) carried out by the “Fundación Empresa
Pública”) from
1990.
Results indicate that agri-food manufacturing firms decision process related to
their size, export share and innovative activities is not a simultaneous process.
Moreover, some differences with the rest of manufactured firms have been detected,
In
particular, agri-food firms have lower export shares, lower size and lower innovation
intensity than Spanish firms in other manufacturing sectors. Spanish firms decision
process on strategic variables (size, export share and innovation) is characterized
by a
recursive decision process where firms firstly decide export intensity, secondly,
they
decide their size or total sales depending on the previous decision and, finally,
they
decide their innovative intensity depending on the last two.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Peter Halmai, Andrea Elekes
Zaragoza, 2002
As regards EU accession of Hungary one of the most important questions is how the
adaptation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will affect the competitiveness
of the
Hungarian agriculture. Competitive effects of CAP can be revealed in several ways
(quantitative, comparative analysis, simulations etc.) but the results may differ
significantly.
That is why it is interesting to compare the results of different methods.
This paper concentrates on the competitive effects of changing trade policy by comparing the results of comparative analyses (producer prices, export subsidy systems and import protection) and simulations. The results of the simulation confirm the conclusion that the CAP adaptation will favour basically the cereal production. CAP adaptation will intensify the already existing (competitive) differences between the two large sectors of agriculture (plant and animal products). All of the analyses came to the conclusion that the prospects of arable crops are favourable. Less reassuring are the prospects of animal products. There are apparent efficiency problems, and rising feed costs (due to accession) may further weaken the position of this sector. Without basic structural reforms the sustainability of the sector’s competitiveness is questionable.
This paper concentrates on the competitive effects of changing trade policy by comparing the results of comparative analyses (producer prices, export subsidy systems and import protection) and simulations. The results of the simulation confirm the conclusion that the CAP adaptation will favour basically the cereal production. CAP adaptation will intensify the already existing (competitive) differences between the two large sectors of agriculture (plant and animal products). All of the analyses came to the conclusion that the prospects of arable crops are favourable. Less reassuring are the prospects of animal products. There are apparent efficiency problems, and rising feed costs (due to accession) may further weaken the position of this sector. Without basic structural reforms the sustainability of the sector’s competitiveness is questionable.


Опубликовано на портале: 28-11-2003
Lionel G. Hubbard, Imre Ferto
2002
Intra-industry trade in agri-food products between Hungary and the EU is shown to
be low
and dominated by vertically rather than horizontally differentiated products, suggesting
higher economic adjustment costs. Following recent empirical studies, we then test
econometrically for the determinants of this trade using different measures of horizontal
and
vertical trade, and employing an array of popular explanatory variables. Results
suggest that
separating the measure of intra-industry trade into vertical and horizontal provides
for better
estimation and supports the contention that the determinants may differ by type of
trade. In
the regression analysis, the level of intra-industry trade is found to serve as a
better dependent
variable than the degree or share of intra-industry trade.


Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2003
E.E. Imad, Rifaat Ahmed Abdel Karim
Durban, 2003
This paper assesses and quantifies the consequences of world trade liberalization
in agriculture on trade and
food security of Sudan. Sudan, with the agricultural sector as the main sector of
economy, is characterized by
its small open economy, and is classified as one of the least developed countries.
Thus, Sudan becomes more
vulnerable to any changes in international agricultural markets. The liberalization
of international
agricultural trade has a great influence on Sudan's food security and on the whole
economy. An extended
form of a multi-market model for Sudan is developed and used for the analysis. The
model embodies
important characteristics of agriculture in Sudan like substitution effects and stages
of production.
As agriculture is the main sector of Sudan's economy, the model is extended to explicitly integrate some of the key important macroeconomic linkages, and to establish certain feedback effects between agriculture and the macro-economy. The model simulations reveal that a higher world market price would overall lead to measurable gains in food security and agricultural trade of the country. However, when the effect of a higher cost of production is considered, the positive results are reversed. Furthermore, the results of the model simulations show that the domestic policy environment matters very much with respect to the potential impact of world trade liberalization of agriculture. The paper concludes that Sudan should reorient its national policies towards export promotion in order to benefit from the new emerging trading opportunities in world markets. However, to capture a greater benefit from the new environment in the international markets, Sudan should consider and manage carefully all factors, domestically or internationally - e.g. quality standard, loss of preference, dumping effects - that hinder its economic and trade growth.
As agriculture is the main sector of Sudan's economy, the model is extended to explicitly integrate some of the key important macroeconomic linkages, and to establish certain feedback effects between agriculture and the macro-economy. The model simulations reveal that a higher world market price would overall lead to measurable gains in food security and agricultural trade of the country. However, when the effect of a higher cost of production is considered, the positive results are reversed. Furthermore, the results of the model simulations show that the domestic policy environment matters very much with respect to the potential impact of world trade liberalization of agriculture. The paper concludes that Sudan should reorient its national policies towards export promotion in order to benefit from the new emerging trading opportunities in world markets. However, to capture a greater benefit from the new environment in the international markets, Sudan should consider and manage carefully all factors, domestically or internationally - e.g. quality standard, loss of preference, dumping effects - that hinder its economic and trade growth.


Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
Huan Niemi
2002
The EU dairy sector will be one of the most sensitive sectors to be affected by the
outcome of the on-going negotiations for the new WTO round for agriculture. Nevertheless,
if
the Next WTO Round is going to be along the same lines as the Uruguay Round, the
EU may
be able to stay within the WTO commitments for export subsidy in the dairy sector
without
further reforms in the Common Agricultural Policy. Certainly, some minor reforms
are
needed to relieve the binding commitments for cheese and other milk products. The
upcoming
reform in the dairy sector under Agenda 2000 starting from year 2005 may help in
reforming the dairy sector for the new round. In contrast, a steeper reduction in
the export
subsidy commitments compared to the Uruguay Round may cause problems for cheese and
other milk products because the majority of exports in these products will have to
be exported
without any export subsidy. After enlargement, in particular with a steeper reduction
formula,
the EU may face troubles in the categories of butter, skim milk powder, cheese, and
other
milk products. The reforms under Agenda 2000 may not be sufficient because the difference
between the EU internal market price and world market price is still too high for
EU dairy
products to allow unsubsidised exports to the world market. The EU internal market
will have
to absorb the dairy products intended for the export market. Consequently, the EU
internal
market for dairy products will be under pressure for further price reduction, and
the EU world
market share in dairy products will shrink.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-12-2003
Nataliya Pustovit, P. Michael Schmitz
Durban, 2003
Agricultural protection in industrialized countries and price distortions in developing
countries are accused to
hamper economic and agricultural development and are partly responsible
for poverty and hunger in the
Third World. A multi-commodity multi-country comparative static trade model
is used to simulate the
impact of different policy scenarios in this typical second best world for the case
of South Africa.
Special emphasis is given to the disincentive effect of production and to endogenous policy responses in South Africa. In conclusion South Africa could benefit a lot by liberalizing trade and agricultural policies world wide, although it is an importer for most of the considered commodities.
Special emphasis is given to the disincentive effect of production and to endogenous policy responses in South Africa. In conclusion South Africa could benefit a lot by liberalizing trade and agricultural policies world wide, although it is an importer for most of the considered commodities.

