Экономика » Экономика отраслевых рынков » Аграрная экономика » Международная торговля агропродовольственной продукцией
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 20
Книги
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Опубликовано на портале: 07-04-2004
И. Кобута, М. Прокопьев, Евгения Викторовна Серова, Ирина Георгиевна Храмова, Ольга Валерьевна Шик, Наталия Алексеевна Карлова
Москва: ИЭПП, негосударственный некоммерческий фонд Аналитический центр агропродовольственной экономики (АПЭ), 2001, cерия "Научные труды"
Работа посвящена анализу государственного регулирования внешней торговли сельскохозяйственной
продукцией; опубликована в книге
« Агропродовольственная политика и международная торговля: российский
аспект ». Книга написана по материалам исследований Аналитического
центра АПЭ
в области внешней торговли агропродовольственными товарами и государственного регулирования
этой торговли.


Опубликовано на портале: 06-04-2004
И. Кобута, М. Прокопьев, Ирина Георгиевна Храмова, Ольга Валерьевна Шик, Евгения Викторовна Серова, Наталия Алексеевна Карлова
Москва: Ин-т экономики переходного периода, 2001, cерия "Научные труды"
Публикация "Перспективы вступления России в ВТО" включена в книгу
« Агропродовольственная политика и международная торговля: российский
аспект ». Книга написана по материалам исследований Аналитического
центра АПЭ
в области внешней торговли агропродовольственными товарами и государственного регулирования
этой торговли.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Kym Anderson, Rodney Tyers
Michigan: University of Michigan Press, 1992
Авторы книги исследуют эффект от либерализации мировой торговли продукцией сельского
хозяйства. Рассматривается современное состояние торговли сельскохозяйственной продукцией
и проблемы либерализации, изменение структуры мировых продовольственных рынков, политика
протекционизма сельского хозяйства развитыми странами, моделируется ситуация либерализации
торговли, рассчитываются потери и выгоды от данной политики.

Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Ред.: John M. Antle, Vincent H. Smith
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000, 300 с.
В книге анализируется современная ситуация на рынке пшеницы, основные страны экспортёры
и импортёры, даётся прогноз развития международного рынка. Авторы уделяют внимание
таким странам, как Россия и Китай, чья роль на мировом рынке пшеницы значительно
изменилась за последнее время. Анализируются и стратегии традиционных экспортёров
пшеницы на мировом рынке - США, ЕС, Канады, Аргентины и Австралии. Поведение и развитие
рынка пшеницы рассматривается через призму международных торговых соглашений. Под
редакцией Д.Антл и В.Смит.

Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Peter Berck, David Bigman
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993, 400 с.
Сборник работ по теме продовольственной безопасности в развивающихся странах. Рассматриваются
проблемы недоедания, бедности, состояния предложения и спроса на продовольствие,
политика государств и проведение альтернативные политических мер на микро- и макро-
уровнях.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Anwar F. Chishti, Waqar Malik
2002
A theory-based graphical analysis of WTO’s trade liberalization policies (opening
of
close-economy to international trade and cuts in price-supports, import-tariffs and
exportsubsidies)
suggests that most of such policies would yield net social gains to the society,
as a
whole. The adverse effects and losses in producer surpluses of some of the policies
would be
balanced out by greater gains in consumer surpluses and vice versa. Losses in producer
surpluses
due to cuts in price supports and import tariffs are also expected to be partially
subsided by
reductions in export subsidies mainly granted by the USA and EU; hence, policies
need to be
enforced, not in isolation, but in a simultaneous fashion.
Trade liberalization would help minimize control of individuals on trade, leave less
room
for individual policy makers, tax collectors and interest groups to exploit situations
in their own
interest and lead the economy to be run in accordance with the supply and demand
forces based
on the last lasting general tendency of human nature. This would help to achieve
a sustainable
and stable agricultural growth; however, more durable sustained growth would depend
as how
effectively trade liberalization is pursued and enforced the world over. Opening
of closed
economy for exportables, and withdrawal of export subsidies by foreign exporters
would be proproducers
and would directly contribute to poverty alleviation. Opening of economy for
importables, withdrawal of price supports and tariff-cuts on imports would yield
savings to
consumers and would positively contribute towards poverty reduction.


Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
Bruno Henry De Frahan, Christian Tritten
2002
This paper proposes a partial equilibrium displacement model that differentiates
wheat
according to its end-use and country of origin to investigate the impact of alternative
European trade
policies on wheat supply and demand in France. Transmission, demand and supply elasticities
are
estimated for each class and origin of wheat. Simulation results show that rebalancing
trade protection
across wheat classes encourages domestic supply of high quality wheat and displaces
imports from
North America.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Uwe Eiteljorge, Monika Hartmann
Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000, 243-269 с.
The collapse of the former Soviet Union has led to a sharp decline in the trading
of agricultural products between its successor states. There have been attempts to
revive these trade relations by means of bilateral and regional trade agreements.
In addition, almost all member states of the CIS are in the process of negotiating
accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Because of its size and agricultural
production potential, the Russian Federation is of primary importance in this respect.
The integration of the Russian Federation in the world economy, which is expected
to result from its accession to the WTO, will have a sizeable impact not only on
its own agricultural sector, but also on the world markets for agricultural products.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Jay Fabiosa, John C. Beghin, Stephane de Cara, Cheng Fang, Murat Isik, Holger Matthey
2003
Using a partial equilibrium model of world agriculture, we investigate the multilateral
removal of all border
taxes and farm programs and their distortion of world agricultural markets. These
distortions have significant
terms-of-trade effects. World trade is also significantly impacted by both
types of distortions. Trade
expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable
oils. Net agricultural
and food exporters (Brazil, Australia, and Argentina) emerge with expanded exports;
whereas net importing
countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by
higher world markets prices and
reduced imports. The US gains significant export shares in livestock products
and imports more dairy
products. Without protection and domestic subsidies, the EU loses many
of its livestock and dairy export
markets.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Imre Ferto, Lionel G. Hubbard
2003
We analyse the evolving pattern of Hungary.s agri-food trade using recently developed
empirical procedures
based on the classic Balassa index and its symmetric transformation. The
extent of trade specialisation
exhibits a declining trend; Hungary lost comparative advantage for a number
of product groups over the
1990s. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular
product groups, the picture
is mixed: indices are reasonably stable for product groups with comparative
disadvantage, but those with
weak to strong comparative advantage show significant variation. The results
reinforce the finding of a
general decrease in specialisation, but do not support the idea of self-reinforcing
mechanisms, emphasised
strongly in much of the endogenous growth and trade literature.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Achim Fock, Peter Weingarten, Olaf Wahl, Mikhail Prokopiev
Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000, 271-297 с.
The paper analyzes the impact of different agricultural trade policies on Russia’s
bilateral trade patterns, price and quantity changes, and welfare effects for producers,
consumers, and the state budget. Three experiments are simulated using a partial
equilibrium model based on the Armington approach. The results show that the current
situation of import tariff-free trade between Russia and other CIS countries has
small positive welfare effects for the Russian Federation in comparison to a situation
where import tariffs between these countries were to be imposed.
However, according to the results, an elimination of import tariffs against all trading partners is preferable for Russia in terms of net welfare. An increase in discriminatory trade barriers against non-CIS countries would cause overall welfare losses for the Russian economy.
However, according to the results, an elimination of import tariffs against all trading partners is preferable for Russia in terms of net welfare. An increase in discriminatory trade barriers against non-CIS countries would cause overall welfare losses for the Russian economy.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Atanu Ghoshray, Tim Lloyd
2003
This paper brings time series techniques to bear on the relationships between the
prices of the principal types
of wheat traded internationally. In all, the relationships between eleven wheat prices
(categorised by wheat
quality, harvest date and port of despatch) are scrutinised to uncover
the structure of the wheat market
implicit in the behaviour its prices reveal. The statistical evidence supports the
notion of a highly integrated
market that is segmented according to wheat strength . the principal determinant
of end-use. Three segments
are identified: a market for "strong" (bread-making) wheat, another for
"weak" (confectionary products-
making) wheat and a third for medium strength wheat suitable for unleavened breads
and noodles. Whilst
informative, market integration - detected by cointegration among prices . is not
altogether surprising, yet
the presence of cointegration implies a causal structure, which is of more cogent
interest. Among a number
of complementary techniques, linkages are uncovered using an innovative
concept of irreducible
cointegration vectors (Davidson 1998, Barassi et al 2001) which provides new evidence
on price linkages.
Statistical evidence is robust and not test-dependent. Specifically, we find a dominant
price leader in each
sub-market. In terms of its pricing, the EU is found to play a passive role in the
world market, confirming a
widely held view.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Peter Halmai, Andrea Elekes
Zaragoza, 2002
As regards EU accession of Hungary one of the most important questions is how the
adaptation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will affect the competitiveness
of the
Hungarian agriculture. Competitive effects of CAP can be revealed in several ways
(quantitative, comparative analysis, simulations etc.) but the results may differ
significantly.
That is why it is interesting to compare the results of different methods.
This paper concentrates on the competitive effects of changing trade policy by comparing the results of comparative analyses (producer prices, export subsidy systems and import protection) and simulations. The results of the simulation confirm the conclusion that the CAP adaptation will favour basically the cereal production. CAP adaptation will intensify the already existing (competitive) differences between the two large sectors of agriculture (plant and animal products). All of the analyses came to the conclusion that the prospects of arable crops are favourable. Less reassuring are the prospects of animal products. There are apparent efficiency problems, and rising feed costs (due to accession) may further weaken the position of this sector. Without basic structural reforms the sustainability of the sector’s competitiveness is questionable.
This paper concentrates on the competitive effects of changing trade policy by comparing the results of comparative analyses (producer prices, export subsidy systems and import protection) and simulations. The results of the simulation confirm the conclusion that the CAP adaptation will favour basically the cereal production. CAP adaptation will intensify the already existing (competitive) differences between the two large sectors of agriculture (plant and animal products). All of the analyses came to the conclusion that the prospects of arable crops are favourable. Less reassuring are the prospects of animal products. There are apparent efficiency problems, and rising feed costs (due to accession) may further weaken the position of this sector. Without basic structural reforms the sustainability of the sector’s competitiveness is questionable.


Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2003
E.E. Imad, Rifaat Ahmed Abdel Karim
Durban, 2003
This paper assesses and quantifies the consequences of world trade liberalization
in agriculture on trade and
food security of Sudan. Sudan, with the agricultural sector as the main sector of
economy, is characterized by
its small open economy, and is classified as one of the least developed countries.
Thus, Sudan becomes more
vulnerable to any changes in international agricultural markets. The liberalization
of international
agricultural trade has a great influence on Sudan's food security and on the whole
economy. An extended
form of a multi-market model for Sudan is developed and used for the analysis. The
model embodies
important characteristics of agriculture in Sudan like substitution effects and stages
of production.
As agriculture is the main sector of Sudan's economy, the model is extended to explicitly integrate some of the key important macroeconomic linkages, and to establish certain feedback effects between agriculture and the macro-economy. The model simulations reveal that a higher world market price would overall lead to measurable gains in food security and agricultural trade of the country. However, when the effect of a higher cost of production is considered, the positive results are reversed. Furthermore, the results of the model simulations show that the domestic policy environment matters very much with respect to the potential impact of world trade liberalization of agriculture. The paper concludes that Sudan should reorient its national policies towards export promotion in order to benefit from the new emerging trading opportunities in world markets. However, to capture a greater benefit from the new environment in the international markets, Sudan should consider and manage carefully all factors, domestically or internationally - e.g. quality standard, loss of preference, dumping effects - that hinder its economic and trade growth.
As agriculture is the main sector of Sudan's economy, the model is extended to explicitly integrate some of the key important macroeconomic linkages, and to establish certain feedback effects between agriculture and the macro-economy. The model simulations reveal that a higher world market price would overall lead to measurable gains in food security and agricultural trade of the country. However, when the effect of a higher cost of production is considered, the positive results are reversed. Furthermore, the results of the model simulations show that the domestic policy environment matters very much with respect to the potential impact of world trade liberalization of agriculture. The paper concludes that Sudan should reorient its national policies towards export promotion in order to benefit from the new emerging trading opportunities in world markets. However, to capture a greater benefit from the new environment in the international markets, Sudan should consider and manage carefully all factors, domestically or internationally - e.g. quality standard, loss of preference, dumping effects - that hinder its economic and trade growth.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Arnim Kuhn
Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000, 203-219 с.
This paper examines the extent of interregional integration of Russian food markets
from different perspectives. Though food price levels in Russia are converging after
the period of hyperinflation, remote regions like the Far East seem to be on a different
price path. With regard to the interregional commodity flows, it could be shown that
interregional transportation of grain is unlikely to have decreased significantly,
if the figures are corrected for imports and feed use. But a cross-sectional regression
analysis using differences between regional production and consumption revealed that
regional surpluses as well as deficits for all products tend to diminish, which means
that the Russian regions increasingly rely on their regional production and not on
interregional trade.

