Книги

Работа посвящена анализу государственного регулирования внешней торговли сельскохозяйственной продукцией; опубликована в книге « Агропродовольственная политика и международная торговля: российский аспект ». Книга написана по материалам исследований Аналитического центра АПЭ в области внешней торговли агропродовольственными товарами и государственного регулирования этой торговли.

Публикация "Перспективы вступления России в ВТО" включена в книгу « Агропродовольственная политика и международная торговля: российский аспект ». Книга написана по материалам исследований Аналитического центра АПЭ в области внешней торговли агропродовольственными товарами и государственного регулирования этой торговли.

Авторы книги исследуют эффект от либерализации мировой торговли продукцией сельского хозяйства. Рассматривается современное состояние торговли сельскохозяйственной продукцией и проблемы либерализации, изменение структуры мировых продовольственных рынков, политика протекционизма сельского хозяйства развитыми странами, моделируется ситуация либерализации торговли, рассчитываются потери и выгоды от данной политики.

В книге анализируется современная ситуация на рынке пшеницы, основные страны экспортёры и импортёры, даётся прогноз развития международного рынка. Авторы уделяют внимание таким странам, как Россия и Китай, чья роль на мировом рынке пшеницы значительно изменилась за последнее время. Анализируются и стратегии традиционных экспортёров пшеницы на мировом рынке - США, ЕС, Канады, Аргентины и Австралии. Поведение и развитие рынка пшеницы рассматривается через призму международных торговых соглашений. Под редакцией Д.Антл и В.Смит.

Сборник работ по теме продовольственной безопасности в развивающихся странах. Рассматриваются проблемы недоедания, бедности, состояния предложения и спроса на продовольствие, политика государств и проведение альтернативные политических мер на микро- и макро- уровнях.

A theory-based graphical analysis of WTO’s trade liberalization policies (opening of close-economy to international trade and cuts in price-supports, import-tariffs and exportsubsidies) suggests that most of such policies would yield net social gains to the society, as a whole. The adverse effects and losses in producer surpluses of some of the policies would be balanced out by greater gains in consumer surpluses and vice versa. Losses in producer surpluses due to cuts in price supports and import tariffs are also expected to be partially subsided by reductions in export subsidies mainly granted by the USA and EU; hence, policies need to be enforced, not in isolation, but in a simultaneous fashion. Trade liberalization would help minimize control of individuals on trade, leave less room for individual policy makers, tax collectors and interest groups to exploit situations in their own interest and lead the economy to be run in accordance with the supply and demand forces based on the last lasting general tendency of human nature. This would help to achieve a sustainable and stable agricultural growth; however, more durable sustained growth would depend as how effectively trade liberalization is pursued and enforced the world over. Opening of closed economy for exportables, and withdrawal of export subsidies by foreign exporters would be proproducers and would directly contribute to poverty alleviation. Opening of economy for importables, withdrawal of price supports and tariff-cuts on imports would yield savings to consumers and would positively contribute towards poverty reduction.

This paper proposes a partial equilibrium displacement model that differentiates wheat according to its end-use and country of origin to investigate the impact of alternative European trade policies on wheat supply and demand in France. Transmission, demand and supply elasticities are estimated for each class and origin of wheat. Simulation results show that rebalancing trade protection across wheat classes encourages domestic supply of high quality wheat and displaces imports from North America.

The collapse of the former Soviet Union has led to a sharp decline in the trading of agricultural products between its successor states. There have been attempts to revive these trade relations by means of bilateral and regional trade agreements. In addition, almost all member states of the CIS are in the process of negotiating accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). Because of its size and agricultural production potential, the Russian Federation is of primary importance in this respect. The integration of the Russian Federation in the world economy, which is expected to result from its accession to the WTO, will have a sizeable impact not only on its own agricultural sector, but also on the world markets for agricultural products.

Using a partial equilibrium model of world agriculture, we investigate the multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortion of world agricultural markets. These distortions have significant terms-of-trade effects. World trade is also significantly impacted by both types of distortions. Trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters (Brazil, Australia, and Argentina) emerge with expanded exports; whereas net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world markets prices and reduced imports. The US gains significant export shares in livestock products and imports more dairy products. Without protection and domestic subsidies, the EU loses many of its livestock and dairy export markets.

We analyse the evolving pattern of Hungary.s agri-food trade using recently developed empirical procedures based on the classic Balassa index and its symmetric transformation. The extent of trade specialisation exhibits a declining trend; Hungary lost comparative advantage for a number of product groups over the 1990s. The indices of specialisation have also tended to converge. For particular product groups, the picture is mixed: indices are reasonably stable for product groups with comparative disadvantage, but those with weak to strong comparative advantage show significant variation. The results reinforce the finding of a general decrease in specialisation, but do not support the idea of self-reinforcing mechanisms, emphasised strongly in much of the endogenous growth and trade literature.

The paper analyzes the impact of different agricultural trade policies on Russia’s bilateral trade patterns, price and quantity changes, and welfare effects for producers, consumers, and the state budget. Three experiments are simulated using a partial equilibrium model based on the Armington approach. The results show that the current situation of import tariff-free trade between Russia and other CIS countries has small positive welfare effects for the Russian Federation in comparison to a situation where import tariffs between these countries were to be imposed.

However, according to the results, an elimination of import tariffs against all trading partners is preferable for Russia in terms of net welfare. An increase in discriminatory trade barriers against non-CIS countries would cause overall welfare losses for the Russian economy.

This paper brings time series techniques to bear on the relationships between the prices of the principal types of wheat traded internationally. In all, the relationships between eleven wheat prices (categorised by wheat quality, harvest date and port of despatch) are scrutinised to uncover the structure of the wheat market implicit in the behaviour its prices reveal. The statistical evidence supports the notion of a highly integrated market that is segmented according to wheat strength . the principal determinant of end-use. Three segments are identified: a market for "strong" (bread-making) wheat, another for "weak" (confectionary products- making) wheat and a third for medium strength wheat suitable for unleavened breads and noodles. Whilst informative, market integration - detected by cointegration among prices . is not altogether surprising, yet the presence of cointegration implies a causal structure, which is of more cogent interest. Among a number of complementary techniques, linkages are uncovered using an innovative concept of irreducible cointegration vectors (Davidson 1998, Barassi et al 2001) which provides new evidence on price linkages. Statistical evidence is robust and not test-dependent. Specifically, we find a dominant price leader in each sub-market. In terms of its pricing, the EU is found to play a passive role in the world market, confirming a widely held view.

As regards EU accession of Hungary one of the most important questions is how the adaptation of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will affect the competitiveness of the Hungarian agriculture. Competitive effects of CAP can be revealed in several ways (quantitative, comparative analysis, simulations etc.) but the results may differ significantly. That is why it is interesting to compare the results of different methods.

This paper concentrates on the competitive effects of changing trade policy by comparing the results of comparative analyses (producer prices, export subsidy systems and import protection) and simulations. The results of the simulation confirm the conclusion that the CAP adaptation will favour basically the cereal production. CAP adaptation will intensify the already existing (competitive) differences between the two large sectors of agriculture (plant and animal products). All of the analyses came to the conclusion that the prospects of arable crops are favourable. Less reassuring are the prospects of animal products. There are apparent efficiency problems, and rising feed costs (due to accession) may further weaken the position of this sector. Without basic structural reforms the sustainability of the sector’s competitiveness is questionable.

This paper assesses and quantifies the consequences of world trade liberalization in agriculture on trade and food security of Sudan. Sudan, with the agricultural sector as the main sector of economy, is characterized by its small open economy, and is classified as one of the least developed countries. Thus, Sudan becomes more vulnerable to any changes in international agricultural markets. The liberalization of international agricultural trade has a great influence on Sudan's food security and on the whole economy. An extended form of a multi-market model for Sudan is developed and used for the analysis. The model embodies important characteristics of agriculture in Sudan like substitution effects and stages of production.

As agriculture is the main sector of Sudan's economy, the model is extended to explicitly integrate some of the key important macroeconomic linkages, and to establish certain feedback effects between agriculture and the macro-economy. The model simulations reveal that a higher world market price would overall lead to measurable gains in food security and agricultural trade of the country. However, when the effect of a higher cost of production is considered, the positive results are reversed. Furthermore, the results of the model simulations show that the domestic policy environment matters very much with respect to the potential impact of world trade liberalization of agriculture. The paper concludes that Sudan should reorient its national policies towards export promotion in order to benefit from the new emerging trading opportunities in world markets. However, to capture a greater benefit from the new environment in the international markets, Sudan should consider and manage carefully all factors, domestically or internationally - e.g. quality standard, loss of preference, dumping effects - that hinder its economic and trade growth.

This paper examines the extent of interregional integration of Russian food markets from different perspectives. Though food price levels in Russia are converging after the period of hyperinflation, remote regions like the Far East seem to be on a different price path. With regard to the interregional commodity flows, it could be shown that interregional transportation of grain is unlikely to have decreased significantly, if the figures are corrected for imports and feed use. But a cross-sectional regression analysis using differences between regional production and consumption revealed that regional surpluses as well as deficits for all products tend to diminish, which means that the Russian regions increasingly rely on their regional production and not on interregional trade.