ŠĻą”±į>ž’ VXž’’’STU’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’’ģ„Į5@šæUĖbjbjĻ2Ļ2.D­X­XUĆ’’’’’’ˆ¾¾¾¾¾¾¾ütttt¼Ąt$ü7+¶šuvvvvvvv¶*ø*ø*ø*ø*ø*ø*$ķ+R?.šÜ*¾*xvv*x*xÜ*¾¾vvń*...*xX¾v¾v¶*.*x¶*..Dr^"T¾¾Ī(väu @ēĢæłĀt‚‡`²'Ž )¬+07+@(ŽŁ.ā‹BŁ.Ī(ŅT&Ö¾¾¾¾Ī(Ł.¾ā((vhnvJ.øv<ōv6vvvÜ*Ü*üü8<8$ üü<Marketing Models (MKTG 620) Course Syllabus Dr. Michael R. Hyman New Mexico State University January 1996 Course Mandate Students enrolled in this course are exposed to the following: the basic philosophies and methods that underlie the development and use of quantitativelybased marketing models; a plethora of quantitativelybased marketing models, with an emphasis upon those related to marketing mix variables and new product forecasting; and the historical development of quantitativelybased marketing models in selected areas (e.g., new product diffusion models). Course Materials Text: Lilien, G. L., P. Kotler, and S. Moorthy (1993), Marketing Models. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall. Readings: Xeroxed articles Course Requirements To calculate your grade, the instructor will evaluate your: participation in and general preparedness for discussions during the scheduled class meetings, your three presentations of a topic assigned to you, and a class project or one inclass exam. In addition, should you have any technical questions regarding specific readings, you should submitted them to the instructor somewhat in advance of class. The inclass exam is meant to simulate comprehensiveexam conditions. You will receive a preliminary question set at the beginning of the semester. This preliminary set will be revised during the semester, but you will receive most, if not all, of the final question set two weeks before the end of the semester. All exam questions (as well as all course-related questions submitted by the instructor for your comprehensive exam) will be selected from the  HYPERLINK "http://cbae.nmsu.edu/~mhyman/M620QST.HTM" final question set. Your exam grade will be based on your familiarity with the salient literature as well as your ability to present that literature in an acceptably coherent and synthesized form. Course Schedule The course schedule is subject to change; however, the approximate sequence of topics to be covered appears below. The text chapters refer to the Lilien, Kotler, and Moorthy Marketing Models book. Readings will be selected from the appropriate subheading under the List of References section which is concluded with this syllabus. Assignments TopicText Chs.Introduction to modeling and marketing models1, Appendix A (pp.599-612), Appendix C (pp.672-675)Model implementation and decision calculus12, Appendix D (pp.697-704)ForecastingMarket segmentation (Explained variance)Pricing4New product diffusion models11 (pp.506-523), 10 (pp.457-480), Appendix C (pp.650-661) New product models based on pretest/test market data10 (pp.480-500)Product design5Advertising6, Appendix A (pp.631-638), Appendix C (pp.661-666)Consumer choice2, Appendix BMarket structure Market shareAppendix C (pp.666-672)Market entry/timingProduct/product line11 (pp.523-566), Appendix ESalesforce7,8Data poolingList of References Models - General Achinstein, Peter. Concepts of Science: A Philosophical Analysis. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Press, Chapter 7. Ehrenberg, A.C.S. "Models from Fact: Examples from Marketing," Management Science, March 1970, 435445 Zaltman, Gerald. "The Structure and Purpose of Marketing Models," in Behavioral Models for Market Analysis: Foundations for Marketing Action (Nicosia and Wind, eds.). Hinsdale, Illinois: Dryden Press, 1977 Churchman, C. West. "Epilogue," in Behavioral Models for Market Analysis: Foundations for Marketing Action (Nicosia and Wind, eds.). Hinsdale, Illinois: Dryden Press, 1977 Naert, Philippe A. and Peter Leeflang. Building Implementable Marketing Models. Boston: Leiden Press, 1978, Chapters 3,5,9 and 4447 Kadane, Joseph B. and Larkey, Patrick D. "The Confusion of IS and OUGHT in Game Theoretic Contexts," Management Science, December 1983, 13651379 Smith, Gerald F. "Defining Managerial Problems: A Framework for Prescriptive Theorizing," Management Science, August 1989, 963 981 Selected readings from the Journal of Irreproducible Research Supplemental Kuehn, Alfred. " Complex Interactive Models," in Marketing Models, Behavior Science Applications (Day and Ness, eds.). Scranton: Intext Publishers, 1971 Dominguez, Luis V. and F.M. Nicosia. "Some Practical Problems in Building Substantive Marketing Models," in Behavioral Models for Market Analysis: Foundations for Marketing Action (Nicosia and Wind, eds.). Hinsdale, Illinois: Dryden Press, 1977 Houston, Tom R. "Why Models Go Wrong," Byte, October 1985, 151 164 Implementation and Decision Calculus Overview Naert and Leeflang. Building Implementable Marketing Models. Boston: Leiden Press, 1978, Chapters 6,13 Little, John D.C. "Decision Support Systems for Marketing Managers," Journal of Marketing, Summer 1979, 926 Naert, Philippe A. and Marcel Weverbergh. "Subjective Versus Empirical Decision Models," in Marketing Decision Models (Schultz and Zoltners, eds.). New York: NorthHolland, 1981 Experiments Chakravarti, Dipankar, Andrew Mitchell, and Richard Staelin. "Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models: Problems and Possible Solutions," Journal of Marketing, Fall 1981, 1323 Little, John D.C. and Leonard M. Lodish. "Commentary on 'Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models," Journal of Marketing, Fall 1981, 2429 McIntyre, Shelby H. "An Experimental Study of the Impact of JudgmentBased Marketing Models," Management Science, January 1982, 1733 Deshpande, Rohit and Gerald Zaltman. "A Comparison of Factors Affecting Use of Marketing Information in Consumer and Industrial Firms," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1987, 114118 Lee, Hanjoon Lee, Frank Acito, and Ralph L. Day. "Evaluation and Use of Marketing Research by Decision Makers: A Behavioral Simulation," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1987, 187196 Perkins, W. Steven and Ram C. Rao. "The Role of Experience in Information Use and Decision Making by Marketing Managers," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1990, 110 Zinkhan, George M., Erich A. Joachimsthaler, and Thomas C. Kinnear. "Individual Differences and Marketing Decision Support System Usage and Satisfaction," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1987, 208214 **Hu, Michael Y. and Rex S. Toh. "An Experimental Study of Marketing Information Utilization: The Manager-Researcher Dichotomy," Marketing Letters, 1995, 53-62 Miscellaneous Schoemaker, Paul J.H. "Strategy, Complexity, and Economic Rent," Management Science, October 1990, 11781192 Mitchell, Andrew A., J. Edward Russo, and Dick R. Wittink. "Issues in the Development and Use of Expert Systems for Marketing Decisions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, 1991, 41-50. Supplemental Little, John D.C. "Models and Managers: The Concept of Decision Calculus," Management Science, April 1970, B466B485 Kahneman, Daniel and Amos Tversky. "On the Psychology of Prediction," Psychology Review, July 1973, 237251 Tversky, Amos and Daniel Kahneman. "Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases," Science, 1974, 11241131 Parsons, Leonard and Randall Schultz. Marketing Models and Econometric Research. New York: NorthHolland, 1976, Chapter 11 McIntyre, Shelby H. and Imran S. Currim. "Evaluating JudgmentBased Marketing Models: Multiple Measures, Comparisons and Findings," in Marketing Planning Models (A.A. Zoltners, ed.). TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, Vol. 18. New York: NorthHolland, 1982 Forecasting Overview Armstrong, J. Scott. "Research on Forecasting: A QuarterCentury Review, 19601984," Interfaces, JanuaryFebruary 1986, 89109 Bunn, Derek and George Wright. "Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis," Management Science, May 1991, 501-518 Miscellaneous Larreche, JeanClaude and Reza Moinpour, "Managerial Judgment in Marketing: The Concept of Expertise," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1983, 110121 Schnarrs, Steven P. "Situational Factors Affecting Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1984, 290297 Armstrong, J. Scott. "Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices, Journal of Consumer Research, September 1991, 251-256 Aggregating Forecasts Ashton, Alison Hubbard and Robert H. Ashton. "Aggregating Subjective Forecasts: Some Empirical Results," Management Science, December 1985, 14991508 Blattberg, Robert C. and Stephen J. Hoch. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, August 1990, 887899 Collopy, Fred and J. Scott Armstrong. "Rule-Based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations," Management Science , October 1992, 1394-1414 Supplemental Makridakis, Spyros and Steven C. Wheelwright. "Forecasting: Issues and Challenges for Marketing Management," Journal of Marketing, October 1977, 2438 Armstrong, J. Scott. "Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact," Journal of Business, 51 (4), 1978 Parsons, Leonard J. "Models of Market Mechanisms," in Marketing Decision Models (Schultz and Zoltners, eds.). New York: NorthHolland, 1981 Armstrong, J. Scott. "Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from 25 Years of Research," Interfaces, NovemberDecember 1984, 5266 Bopp, Anthony E. "On Combining Forecasts: Some Extensions and Results," Management Science, December 1985, 14921498 Gupta, Sunil and Peter C. Wilton. "Combination of Forecasts: An Extension," Management Science, March 1987, 356372 Market Segmentation (Explained Variance) Overview Wind, Yoram. "Issues and Advances in Segmentation Research," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1978, 317337 R2 Controversy Frank, Ronald E., William F. Massy and Harper W. Boyd. "Correlates of Grocery Product Consumption Rates," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1967, 184190 Bass, Frank M., Douglas Tigert, and Ronald Lonsdale. "Market Segmentation: Group Versus Individual Behavior," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1968, 264270 Bass, Frank M. "Unexplained Variance in Studies of Consumer Behavior," in Control of Error in Market Research Data (Farley and Howard, eds.). Lexington, Mass.: D.C. Heath and Company, 1975 Supplemental Morrison, Donald G. "Evaluating Market Segmentation Studies: The Properties of R Square," Management Science, August 1973, 12131221 Wildt, Albert R. "On 'Evaluating Market Segmentation Studies and the Properties of R Square," Management Science, April 1976, 904908 Beckwith, Neil E. and Maurice W. Sasieni. "Criteria for Market Segmentation Studies," Management Science, April 1976, 892903 Miscellaneous Mahajan, Vijay and Arun K. Jain. "An Approach to Normative Segmentation," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1978, 338345 Gensch, Dennis H. "Empirically Testing a Disaggregate Choice Model for Segments," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1985, 462467 Moritz, Vicki G. and David Schmittelein. "Using Segmentation to Improve Sales Forecasts Based on Purchase Intent: Which 'Intenders' Actually Buy," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1992, 391-405 **Bucklin, Randolph E., Sunil Gupta, and Sangman Han. A Brand's Eye View of Response Segmentation in Consumer Brand Choice Behavior," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1995, 66-74 Supplemental Frank, Ronald E. "Market Segmentation Research: Findings and Implications," in Applications of the Sciences of Marketing Management, (Bass, King and Pessemier, eds.). New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1968 McCann, John M. "Market Segment Response to the Marketing Decision Variables," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1974, 399412 Wildt, Albert R. and John M. McCann. "A Regression Model for Market Segmentation Studies," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1980, 335340 Pricing Overview Monroe, Kent B. and Albert J. Della Bitta. "Models for Pricing Decisions," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1978, 413428 PriceQuality Relationship McConnell, J. Douglas. "The PriceQuality Relationship in an Experimental Setting," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1968, 300303 Reisz, Peter C. "A Major PricePerceived Quality Study Reexamined," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1980, 259262 McConnell, J. Douglas. "Comment on "A Major PricePerceived Quality Study Reexamined," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1980, 263264 **Greenleaf, Eric. "The Impact of Reference Price Effects on the Profitability of Price Promotions," Marketing Science, Winter 1995, 82-104 **Olshavsky, Richard W., Andrew B. Aylesworth, and DeAnna S. Kempf. "The Price-Choice Relationship: A Contingent Processing Approach," Journal of Business Research, 1995, 207-218 Supplemental Monroe, Kent B. "Buyer's Subjective Perceptions of Price," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1973, 7080 Charlton, P. and A.S.C. Ehrenberg. "McConnell's Experimental Brand Choice Data," Journal of Marketing Research," August 1973, 302307 Murdick, Stephen. Mathematical Models in Marketing. Scranton: Intext Educational Publishers, 1971, Chapter 3 (Experience Models and Company Strategy) Gaudagni, Peter M. and John D.C. Little. "A Logit Model of Brand Choice Calibrated on Scanner Data," Marketing Science, Summer 1983, 203238 Optimal Price Over Time Dolan, Robert J. and Abel P. Jeuland. "Experience Curves and Dynamic Demand Models: Implications for Optimal Pricing Strategies," Journal of Marketing, Winter 1981, 5262 Reibstein, David J. and Hubert Gatignon. "Optimal Product Line Pricing: The Influence of Elasticities and CrossElasticities," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1984, 259267 Winer, Russell S. "A Price Vector Model of Demand for Consumer Durables: Preliminary Developments," Marketing Science, Winter 1985, 7490 Thaler, Richard. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, Summer 1985, 199214 Kalwani, Manohar U., Chi Kin Yim, Heikki J. Rinne, and Yoshi Sugita. "A Price Expectations Model of Customer Brand Choice," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1990, 251262 Raju, Jagmohan S. "The Effect of Price Promotions on Variability in Product Category Sales," Marketing Science, Summer 1992, 207-220 **Tellis, Gerard J. and Fred S. Zufryden. "Tackling the Retailer Decision Maze: Which Brands to Discount, How Much, When, and Why?," Marketing Science, 1995, 271-299 Supplemental Robinson, Bruce and Chet Lakhani. "Dynamic Price Models for NewProduct Planning," Management Science, June 1975, 11131122 Simon, Hermann. "Dynamics of Price Elasticity and Brand Life Cycles: An Empirical Study," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1979, 439452 Bundling Venkatesh, R. and Vijay Mahajan. "A Probabilistic Approach to Pricing a Bundle of Products or Services," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1993, 494-508 **Kaicher, Ajit, William O. Bearden, and Kenneth C. Manning. "Component versus Bundle Pricing: The Role of Selling Price Deviations from Price Expectations," Journal of Business Research, 1995, 231-239 **Simonin, Bernard L. and Julie A. Ruth. "Bundling as a Strategy for New Product Introduction: Effects on Consumers' Reservation Prices for the Bundle, the New Product, and Its Tie-in," Journal of Business Research, 1995, 219-230 **Yadav, Manjit S. "Bundle Evaluation in Different Market Segments: The Effects of Discount Framing and Buyers' Preference Heterogeneity," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1995, 206-215 Miscellaneous Massy, William P. and Ronald E. Frank. "Short Term Price and Dealing Effects in Selected Market Segments," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1965, 171185 Raju, Jagmohan S., V. Srinivasan, and Rajiv Lal. "The Effects of Brand Loyalty on Competitive Price Promotional Strategies," Management Science, March 1990, 276304 **Hoch, Stephen J., Byung-Do Kim, Alan L. Montgomery, and Peter E. Rossi. "Determinants of Store-Level Price Elasticity," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1995, 17-29 **Kumar, V. and Arun Pereira. "Explaining the Variation in Short-Term Sales Response to Retail Price Promotion," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1995, 155-169 **Mulhern, Francis J. "Measuring Market Response to Price Changes: A Classification Approach," Journal of Business Research, 1995, 197-205 New Product Diffusion Models Overview Mahajan, Vijay and Eitan Muller. "Innovation Diffusion and New Product Growth Models in Marketing," Journal of Marketing, Fall 1979, 5568 Gatignon, Hubert and Thomas S. Robertson. "A Propositional Inventory for New Diffusion Research," Journal of Consumer Research, March 1985, 849867 Mahajan, Vijay, Eitan Muller, and Frank M. Bass. "New Product Diffusion Models in Marketing: A Review and Directions for Research," Journal of Marketing, January 1990, 126 Sultan, Fareena, John U. Farley, and Donald Lehmann. "A MetaAnalysis of Applications of Diffusion Models," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1990, 7077 Supplemental Rogers, Everett M. and J. David Stanfield. "Adoption and Diffusion of New Products: Emerging Generalizations and Hypotheses," in Applications of the Sciences in Marketing Management (Bass, King and Pessemier, eds.). New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1968, 227250 NPGMs and Extensions Fourt, Louis A. and Joseph W. Woodlock. "Early Prediction of Market Success for New Grocery Products," Journal of Marketing, October 1960, 3138 Bass, Frank M. "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables," Management Science, January 1969, 215227 Tigert, Douglas and Behrooz Farivar. "The Bass NPGM: A Sensitivity Analysis for a High Technology Product," Journal of Marketing, Fall 1981, 8190 Horsky, Dan and Leonard S. Simon. "Advertising and the Diffusion of New Products," Marketing Science, Winter 1983, 117 Easingwood, Christopher J., Vijay Mahajan and Eitan Muller. "A Nonuniform Influence Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, Summer 1983, 273295 Kalish, Shlomo. "A New Product Adoption Model with Price, Advertising, and Uncertainty," Management Science, December 1985, 15691584 Easingwood, Christopher J. "Early Product Life Cycle Forms for Infrequently Purchased Major Products," International Journal of Research in Marketing, 1987, 3-9 Hyman, Michael R. "The Timeliness Problem in the Application of 'BassType' New Product Diffusion Models to Durable Sales Forecasting," Journal of Business Research, January 1988, 3146 Mahajan, Vijay, Eitan Muller, and Rajendra K. Srivastava. "Determination of Adopter Categories by Using Innovation Diffusion Models," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1990, 3750 Horsky, Dan. "A Diffusion Model Incorporating Product Benefits, Price, Income and Information," Marketing Science, Fall 1990, 342365 Chatterjee, Rabikar and Jehoshua Eliashberg. "The Innovation Diffusion Process in a Heterogeneous Population: A Micromodeling Approach," Management Science, September 1990, 10571079 Jain, Dipak, Vijay Mahajan, and Eitan Muller. "Innovation Diffusion in the Presence of Supply Restrictions, Marketing Science, Winter 1991, 83-90 Parker, Philip M. "Price Elasticity Dynamics Over the Adoption Life Cycle," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1992, 358-367 Supplemental Dodds, Wellesley. "An Application of the Bass Model in LongTerm New Product Forecasting," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1973, 308311 Parsons, Leonard J. "The Product Life Cycle and Time Varying Advertising Elasticities," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1975, 476480 Dodson, Joe A. and Eitan Muller. "Models of New Product Diffusion Through Advertising and WordofMouth," Management Science, November 1978, 15681578 Mahajan, Vijay and Robert A. Peterson. "Innovation Diffusion in a Dynamic Potential Adaptor Population," Management Science, November 1978, 15891597 Bass, Frank M. "The Relationship Between Diffusion Rates, Experience Curves, and Demand Elasticities for Consumer Durable Technological Innovations," Journal of Business (University of Chicago), 53, 1980, s51s67 Heeler, Roger M. and Thomas P. Hustad. "Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables," Management Science, October 1980, 10071020 Lawrence, Kenneth D. and William H. Lawton. "Applications of Diffusion Models: Some Empirical Results," in New Product Forecasting: Models and Applications (Wind, Mahajan and Cardozo, eds.), Lexington, Mass: D.C. Heath and Co., 1981, 529541 Harrell, Stephen G. and Elmer D. Taylor. "Modeling the Product Life Cycle for Consumer Durables," Journal of Marketing, Fall 1981, 6875 Schmittlein, David C. and Vijay Mahajan. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation for an Innovation Diffusion Model of New Product Acceptance," Marketing Science, Winter 1982, 5778 Bass, Frank M. and Alain V. Bultez. "A Note on Optimal Pricing of Technological Innovations," Marketing Science, Fall 1982, 371378 Mahajan, Vijay, Eitan Muller, and Roger A. Kerin. "Introduction Strategy for New Products with Positive and Negative WordofMouth," Management Science, December 1984, 13891404 Kalish, Shlomo and Gary L. Lilien. "A Market Entry Timing Model for New Technologies," Management Science, February 1986, 194205 With Replacement Norton, John A. and Frank M. Bass. "A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of HighTechnology Products," Management Science, September 1987, 10691086 Bayus, Barry L. "The Consumer Durable Replacement Buyer," Journal of Marketing, January 1991, 42-51 Bayus, Barry L. "The Dynamic Pricing of Next Generation Consumer Durables," Marketing Science, Summer 1992, 251-265 Bayus, Barry L. "High-Definition Television: Assessing Demand Forecasts for a Next Generation Consumer Durable," Management Science, November 1993, 1319-1333. International Gatignon, Hubert, Jehoshua Eliashberg, and Thomas S. Robertson. "Modeling Multinational Diffusion Patterns: An Efficient Methodology," Marketing Science, Summer 1989, 231247 Takada, Hirokazu and Dipak Jain. "Cross-National Analysis of Diffusion of Consumer Durable Goods in Pacific Rim Countries," Journal of Marketing, April 1991, 48-54 Helsen, Kristiaan, Kamel Jedidi, and Wayne S. DeSarbo. "A New Approach to Country Segmentation Utilizing Multinational Diffusion Patterns," Journal of Marketing, October 1993, 60-71 New Product Models Based on Pre-Test Market Data Overview Clancy, Kevin J., Robert S. Shulman, and Marianne M. Wolf. Simulated Test Marketing: Technology for Launching Successful New Products, New York: Lexington Books, 1995, 49-78 Claycamp, Henry J. and Lucient E. Liddy. "Prediction of New Product Performance: An Analytical Approach," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1969, 414420 Silk, Alvin J. and Glen J. Urban. "PreTestMarket Evaluation of New Packaged Goods: A Model and Measurement Methodology," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1978, 171191 Urban, Glen L. and Gerald M. Katz. "PreTestMarket Models: Validation and Managerial Implications," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1983, 221 234 Urban, Glen L., John R. Hauser, and John H. Roberts. "Prelaunch Forecasting of New Automobiles," Management Science, April 1990, 401421 Supplemental Blackburn, Joseph D. and Kevin J. Clancy. "Litmus: A New Product Planning Model," in Marketing Planning Models (A.A. Zoltners, ed.). TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, Vol. 18. New York: NorthHolland, 1982 New Product Models Based on Test Market Data Overview Narasimhan, Chakravarthi and Subrata K. Sen. "New Product Models for Test Market Data," Journal of Marketing, Winter 1983, 1124 Mahajan, Vijay, Eitan Muller, and Subhash Sharma. "An Empirical Comparison of Awareness Forecasting Models of New Product Introduction," Marketing Science, Summer 1984, 179206 Specific Models Parfitt, J.H. and B.J.K. Collins. "Use of Consumer Panels for BrandShare Predictions," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1968, 131145 Blattberg, Robert and John Golanty. "Tracker: An Early Test Market Forecasting and Diagnostic Model for New Product Planning," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1978, 192202 Pringle, Lewis G., R. Dale Wilson and Edward I. Brody. "NEWS: A DecisionOriented Model for New Product Analysis and Forecasting," Marketing Science, Winter 1982, 129 Supplemental Massy, William F. "Stochastic Models for Monitoring NewProduct Introductions," in Applications of the Sciences in Marketing Management (Bass, King and Pessemier, eds.). New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1968, 85111 Zufryden, Fred S. "A General Model for Assessing New Product Marketing Decisions and Market Performance," in Marketing Planning Models (A.A. Zoltners, ed.). TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, Vol. 18. New York: NorthHolland, 1982 Product Design Hauser, John R. and Steven M. Shugan. "Defensive Marketing Strategies," Marketing Science, Fall 1983, 319360 Hauser, John R., and Seven P. Gaskin. "Application of the 'Defender' Consumer Model," Marketing Science, Fall 1984, 327351 Shugan, Steven M. "Estimating Brand Positioning Maps Using Supermarket Scanning Data," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1987, 118 Urban, Glen L. and Eric Von Hippel. "Lead User Analyses for the Development of New Industrial Products," Management Science, May 1988, 569582 Supplemental Urban, Glen L. "Perceptor: A Model for Product Positioning," Management Science, April 1975, 858871 Shocker, Allan D. and V. Srinivasan. "Multiattribute Approaches for Product Concept Evaluation and Generation: A Critical Review," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1979, 159180 Advertising Overview Dhalla, Nariman K. "Assessing the LongTerm Value of Advertising," Harvard Business Review, JanuaryFebruary 1978, 8795 Little, John D.C. "Aggregate Advertising Models: The State of the Art," Operations Research, JulyAugust 1979, 629667 Bass, Frank M. "Some Case Histories of Econometric Modeling in Marketing: What Really Happened?," Interfaces, February 1980, 8690 Aaker, David A. and James M. Carman. "Are You Overadvertising?," Journal of Advertising Research, August/September 1982, 5770 Assmus, Gert, John U. Farley and Donald R. Lehmann. "How Advertising Affects Sales: MetaAnalysis of Economic Results," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1984, 6574 SimultaneousEquation Models Bass, Frank M. "A Simultaneous Equation Regression Study of Advertising and Sales of Cigarettes," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1969, 291300 Dominquez, Luis V. and Albert L. Page. "A Note on a SimultaneousEquation Regression Study of Advertising and Sales of Cigarettes," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1971, 386389 Bass, Frank M. "Testing Vs. Estimation in SimultaneousEquation Regression Models," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1971, 388389 Supplemental Bass, Frank M. and Leonard J. Parsons. "SimultaneousEquation Regression Analysis of Sales and Advertising," Applied Economics, Vol. 1, 1969, 103124 Parsons, Leonard J. and Frank M. Bass. "Optimal AdvertisingExpenditure Implications of a SimultaneousEquation Regression Analysis," Operations Research, MayJune 1971, 822831 Beckwith, Neil E. "Multivariate Analysis of Sales Responses of Competing Brands to Advertising," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1972, 168176 Clarke, Darral G. "SalesAdvertising CrossElasticities and Advertising Competition," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1973, 250261 DistributedLag Models Palda, Kristian S. "The Measurement of Cumulative Advertising Effects," Journal of Business (University of Chicago), April 1965 Bass, Frank M. and Darral G. Clarke. "Testing Distributed Lag Models of Advertising Effect," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1972, 298308 Clarke, Darral G. "Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1976, 345357 Gatignon, Hubert. "Competition as a Moderator of the Effect of Advertising on Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1984, 387398 Bultez, Alain V. and Philippe A. Naert. "Does Lag Structure Really Matter in Optimizing Advertising Expenditures?," Management Science, May 1979, 454465 Magat, Wesley A., John M. McCann, and Richard C. Morey. "When Does Lag Structure Really Matter in Optimizing Advertising Expenditures?," Management Science, February 1986, 182193 Supplemental Vidale, M.L. and H.B. Wolfe. "An OperationsResearch Study of Sales Response to Advertising," Operations Research, June 1957, 370381 Houston, Franklin S. and Doyle L. Weiss. "An Analysis of Competitive Market Behavior," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1974, 151155 Parsons, Leonard. "A Ratchet Model of Advertising Carryover Effects," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1976, 7679 Weiss, Doyle L., Franklin S. Houston, and Pierre Windal. "The Periodic Pain of Lydia E. Pinkham," Journal of Business, No.1, 1978, 91101 Horsky, Dan. "Market Share Response to Advertising: An Example of Theory Testing," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1977, 1021 Weiss, Doyle L. and Pierre M. Windal. "Testing Cumulative Advertising Effects: A Comment on Methodology," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1980, 371378 Weinberg, Charles B. and Doyle L. Weiss. "On the Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1982, 585591 Clarke, Darral G. "A Reply to Weinberg and Weiss," Journal of Marketing Research, November 1982, 592594 Bass, Frank M. and Robert P. Leone. "Temporal Aggregation, the Data Interval Bias, and Empirical Estimation of Bimonthly Relations from Annual Data," Management Science, January 1983, 111 Weiss, Doyle L., Charles B. Weinberg and Pierre M. Windal. "The Effects of Serial Correlation and Data Aggregation on Advertising Measurement," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1983, 268279 Vanhonacker, Wilfried R. "Carryover Effects and Temporal Aggregation in a Partial Adjustment Model Framework," Marketing Science, Summer 1983, 297317 Doyle, Peter, and John Saunders. "The Lead Effect of Marketing Decisions," Journal of Marketing Research, February 1985, 5465 Srinivasan, V. and Helen A. Weir. "A Direct Aggregation Approach to Inferring Microparameters of the Koyck AdvertisingSales Relationship from Macro Data," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1988, 145156 Miscellaneous Hanssens, Dominique M. and Barton A. Weitz. "The Effectiveness of Industrial Print Advertising Across Product Categories," Journal of Marketing Research, August 1980, 294306 Bemmaor, Albert and Dominique Mouchoux. "Measuring the Short-Term Effect of In-Store Promotion and Retail Advertising on Brand Sales: A Factorial Experiment," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1991, 202-214 Sethuraman, Raj and Gerard J. Tellis. "An Analysis of the Tradeoff Between Advertising and Price Discounting," Journal of Marketing Research, May 1991, 160-174 Kanetkar, Vinay, Charles B. Weinberg, and Doyle L. Weiss. 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"A Return on Quality (ROQ): Making Service Quality Financially Accountable," Journal of Marketing, April 1995, 58-70 +-AC^`lm{|ŗ¼. 0 Å Ę B C S T ‹ œ Ż Ž ń ņ . /   Ē É ļ š ‹ Œ TčŻČŻ³ŻžŻŠŻyŻyŻyŻyŻŠŻygyŻŠŻyŻyŻyŻyŻyŻy#h¦jBh¦jB>*OJQJ^JmH sH  h¦jBh¦jBOJQJ^JmH sH &h¦jBh¦jB5OJQJ\^JmH sH (h¦jBh¦jBCJOJQJ^JaJmH sH (h¦jBh¦jBCJ$OJQJ^JaJ$mH sH (h¦jBh¦jBCJ0OJQJ^JaJ0mH sH h¦jBh¦jBmH sH .h¦jBh¦jB5CJ0OJQJ\^JaJ0mH sH %-C`m|¼0 Ę C T Ž ņ /  É š Œ Rb­¹æ÷‹$Y÷‹$Y÷‹$Ōķ‹$č‹$¬č‹$¬Ł‹$¬Ł‹$¬Ł‹$¬č‹$¬č‹$¬č‹$¬č‹$¬Ź‹$¬Ź‹$¬Ź‹$¬č‹$¬č‹$¬č‹$¬č‹$¬č‹$¬Ät¬$If & F¤d¤d[$\$gd¦jB & F¤d¤d[$\$gd¦jBgd¦jB $¤ša$gd¦jB$a$gd¦jBUĖżTU‹ŒžŸQRab k}¬­ø¹¾æČÉŹ÷ų+,-WXstu€‚ƒ«­®µ¶·ńąńĶńąĀ®ĀąœąœąĀ‹‹‹ƒąĀąĀtąĀj‹ƒj‹ƒj‹ƒj‹jh¦jBOJQJ^Jh¦jBh¦jBCJaJmH sH h¦jBCJaJh¦jBh¦jB5OJQJ\^J#h¦jBh¦jB>*OJQJ^JmH sH &h¦jBh¦jB5OJQJ\^JmH sH h¦jBh¦jBmH sH $h¦jBh¦jB0JOJQJ^JmH sH  h¦jBh¦jBOJQJ^JmH sH 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`„˜ž.€„„˜žĘ^„`„˜ž.€„ą„˜žĘą^„ą`„˜ž.€„°„˜žĘ°^„°`„˜ž.€„€„˜žĘ€^„€`„˜ž.€„P„˜žĘP^„P`„˜ž.„Š„˜žĘŠ^„Š`„˜ž.€„ „˜žĘ ^„ `„˜ž.€„p„˜žĘp^„p`„˜ž.€„@ „˜žĘ@ ^„@ `„˜ž.€„„˜žĘ^„`„˜ž.€„ą„˜žĘą^„ą`„˜ž.€„°„˜žĘ°^„°`„˜ž.€„€„˜žĘ€^„€`„˜ž.€„P„˜žĘP^„P`„˜ž.„Š„˜žĘŠ^„Š`„˜ž.€„ „˜žĘ ^„ `„˜ž.€„p„˜žĘp^„p`„˜ž.€„@ „˜žĘ@ ^„@ `„˜ž.€„„˜žĘ^„`„˜ž.€„ą„˜žĘą^„ą`„˜ž.€„°„˜žĘ°^„°`„˜ž.€„€„˜žĘ€^„€`„˜ž.€„P„˜žĘP^„P`„˜ž.„Š„˜žĘŠ^„Š`„˜ž.€„ „˜žĘ ^„ `„˜ž.€„p„˜žĘp^„p`„˜ž.€„@ „˜žĘ@ ^„@ `„˜ž.€„„˜žĘ^„`„˜ž.€„ą„˜žĘą^„ą`„˜ž.€„°„˜žĘ°^„°`„˜ž.€„€„˜žĘ€^„€`„˜ž.€„P„˜žĘP^„P`„˜ž.„Š„˜žĘŠ^„Š`„˜ž.€„ „˜žĘ ^„ `„˜ž.€„p„˜žĘp^„p`„˜ž.€„@ „˜žĘ@ ^„@ `„˜ž.€„„˜žĘ^„`„˜ž.€„ą„˜žĘą^„ą`„˜ž.€„°„˜žĘ°^„°`„˜ž.€„€„˜žĘ€^„€`„˜ž.€„P„˜žĘP^„P`„˜ž.„Š„˜žĘŠ^„Š`„˜ž.€„ „˜žĘ ^„ `„˜ž.€„p„˜žĘp^„p`„˜ž.€„@ „˜žĘ@ ^„@ `„˜ž.€„„˜žĘ^„`„˜ž.€„ą„˜žĘą^„ą`„˜ž.€„°„˜žĘ°^„°`„˜ž.€„€„˜žĘ€^„€`„˜ž.€„P„˜žĘP^„P`„˜ž.„Š„˜žĘŠ^„Š`„˜ž.€„ „˜žĘ ^„ `„˜ž.€„p„˜žĘp^„p`„˜ž.€„@ „˜žĘ@ ^„@ `„˜ž.€„„˜žĘ^„`„˜ž.€„ą„˜žĘą^„ą`„˜ž.€„°„˜žĘ°^„°`„˜ž.€„€„˜žĘ€^„€`„˜ž.€„P„˜žĘP^„P`„˜ž.„Š„˜žĘŠ^„Š`„˜ž.€„ „˜žĘ ^„ `„˜ž.€„p„˜žĘp^„p`„˜ž.€„@ „˜žĘ@ ^„@ 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