Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 15518
International Journal of Forecasting [интернет ресурс]
The International Journal of Forecasting is the leading journal in its field. It is the official publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) and shares its aims and scope. More information about
Time Series [учебная программа]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-12-2002Guido M. Kuersteiner
The course is an introduction to univariate and multivariate time series models. It starts by introducing basic concepts and progresses to more complicated models. The course intends to meet two goals. It provides tools for empirical work with time series data and is an introduction into the theoretical foundation of time series models.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2002Lars Behrenz Journal of Applied Economics. 2001. Vol. 4. No. 2. P. 255-278.
In the literature of labor economics we find many examples of studies analyzing job seekers search behavior, but few examples of the corresponding analysis of the recruitment behavior of employers. This paper gives a picture of the recruitment behavior of Swedish employers. The analysis is based on about 800 telephone interviews with employers regarding the last person they had hired. This paper relates the lemons problem in Akerlof with the Spence signaling model, and then it proceeds to relate indices and signals to the hiring behavior of employers. Employers mainly recruit personnel in order to expand a certain activity of their firm. On an average the total recruitment process takes about a month. In first round employers mainly look for job seekers with good education and experience. During the job interview the employer search for persons with professional knowledge, personal engagement and social competence
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2002Cara L. Brown Feminist Economics. 1998. Vol. 4. No. 2. P. 89-95(7) .
In attempting to ascertain various impacts on labor market outcomes using categories such as gender, race, ethnicity, and physical ability, a void exists with respect to sexual orientation. Whereas heterosexism and homophobia can explain some of the reasons for the void, the inability to collect data randomly about homosexuals' experiences in the labor market nullifies the basic tenet of all scientific research-random samples. A unique approach is presented which looks at income data for nonrelatives of the same sex, ages 45 to 64, living together in Canada, as a first attempt at comparing same-sex and opposite-sex genders, and is used to demonstrate the contribution of recognizing sexual orientation to economic questions. Other examples based on well-known debates about female labor participation and gender wage gaps are presented to evaluate the usefulness of studying economics recognizing sexual orientation. The need for such study is acknowledged as a measure of the inclusiveness of the economics discipline.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2002John J. Piderit International Journal of Social Economics. 1998. Vol. 25. No. 1112. P. 1684-1698.
In his economic writings John Paul II asserts the importance of placing the human person at the center of deliberations concerning the economy. Neoclassical economists show that free trade enhances the efficiency of society. However, a byproduct of free trade is greater competition, as countries and firms adjust to the introduction of new products and processes of production, made possible through technological innovation. Neoclassical economists assume that workers will move to where new jobs develop. In many cases, however, this means that they impose burdens on their family and become more distant from friends. Each human person establishes bonds with other persons; through such family bonds of friendship a person becomes more human. This essay explores the tension between greater productive efficiency and a desire to maintain and enhance friendships. Never merely objective analysts, neoclassical economists have strong convictions concerning dynamic efficiency, while consumers have convictions about friendship. These two sets of convictions have to be reconciled. In order for policy makers to assess the true costs of free trade, mobility measures must be developed, and the neoclassical model must be modified to incorporate geographical stability as a significant factor for consumers.
Establishing the Priority of Labor [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2002G.Paul Peterson, James A. Buss International Journal of Social Economics. 1998. Vol. 25. No. 1112. P. 1699-1710(12) .
Pope John Paul II and the social teachings of the Catholic Church emphasize that labor should not be treated as an instrument in the production process. Rather justice requires that labor be given priority over capital. The reasons for this priority are explained. Several labor market conditions are examined to show that generally the priority of labor over capital does not exist. These conditions include unemployment, unjust wages, poverty, suppression of union activities, lack of participatory management, and discrimination against women and foreign workers. The works of Pope John Paul II are examined to discern the causes of these injustices and possible remedies for them. The roles played by the indirect employer, structures of evil, the ownership of economic resources, as well as the error of economism are considered.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2002Bertil Holmlund Scandinavian Journal of Economics. 1998. Vol. 100. No. 1. P. 113-141.
A hallmark of modern labor economics is the close interplay between the development of theory, data sources and econometric testing. The evolution of the economic analysis of unemployment insurance provides a good illustration. New theoretical approaches, in particular job-search theory, have inspired a large amount of empirical research, some of it methodologically innovative and most of it highly relevant for economic policy. The paper presents a broad survey and an assessment of the economic analysis of unemployment insurance as it has evolved since the 1970s.
Market Forces and Sex Discrimination [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Judith K. Hellerstein, David Neumark, Kenneth R. Troske Journal of Human Resources. 2002. Vol. 37 . No. 2 . P. 353-380.
The authors report new evidence on the existence of sex discrimination in wages and whether competitive market forces act to reduce or eliminate discrimination. Specifically, they use plant- and firm-level data to examine the relationships between profitability, growth and ownership changes, product market power, and the sex composition of a plant's or firm's workforce. Their strongest finding is that among plants with high levels of product market power, those that employ relatively more women are more profitable. No such relationship exists for plants with apparently low levels of market power. This is consistent with sex discrimination in wages in the short run in markets where plants have product market power. The authors also examine evidence on the longer-run effects of market forces on discrimination, asking whether discriminatory employers with market power are punished over time through lower growth than non-discriminatory employers, or whether discriminatory employers are bought out by non-discriminators. There was found little evidence that this occurs over a five-year period, as growth and ownership changes for plants with market power are generally not significantly related to the sex composition of a plant's workforce.
An Analysis of Occupational Change and Departures from the Labor Force: Evidence of the Reasons Teacher Quit [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Todd R. Stinebrickner Journal of Human Resources. 2002. Vol. 37 . No. 1. P. 192-216.
This article deals with two problems: the timing of exits from the teaching profession and the reasons for these exits. Approximately 67 % of exiting female teachers leave the work force altogether. The presence of a newborn child is the single most important determinant of exits for females. The paper discusses why studies of quit behavior that simply include a person's total number of children may fail to capture the true importance of fertility behavior on a female's quit decision. It is also examined in this paper the return rates of departing teachers and compares the exit behavior of teachers to that of nonteachers.
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Lisa M. Powell Journal of Human Resources. 2002. Vol. 37. No. 1. P. 106-128.
This paper examines the impact of childcare prices and wage rates on the joint employment and childcare mode (center, sitter, relative, and husband) choice decisions of married mothers by estimating both a mixed logit and universal logit choice model. Data are drawn from the 1988 Canadian National Child Care Survey and the 1988 Labour Market Activity Survey. The estimation results show that wages have a positive impact on the probability of choosing any of the working states and that childcare prices for center, sitter, and relative care reduce the probability of working and using each respective mode of care. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the wage elasticity for employment is fairly robust across model specifications, while the own-price elasticity of childcare is sensitive to model specification, differing identifying assumptions in the estimation of childcare price equations, and sample selection. The simulation results show that differences exist in the degree to which government subsidies in the form of wage subsidies, targeted childcare subsidies, or unconditional childcare subsidies, impact on labor supply decisions and decisions to substitute across different modes of care by those mothers already in the labor market.
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Maria Melkersson
Return to employment, after a period of unemployment, is analyzed for a large sample of Swedish occupationally disabled workers. A piece-wise constant model is used, extended to allow for Gamma heterogeneity. Three competing exits from unemployment are accounted for; regular employment, sheltered/subsidized employment and withdrawal from the labor force. The model is also generalized by accounting for differing search behavior within the population. The hazard rate is constant or slightly increasing over time, for exit to some kind of employment. However, for exit from unemployment by leaving the labor force, the hazard shows quite strong positive duration dependence. Men tend to be more probable to leave unemployment for regular employment, and less probable than women to leave the labor force. The probability of finding regular employment is smallest for workers with psychological disabilities, while high-school or university education as well as previous professional experience increases the hazard rate for regular employment. The heterogeneity due to differing search behavior appears to be at least as important as the Gamma heterogeneity. The estimated probabilities of no search for one particular exit varies, across exits and subsamples, between 0.0 and 0.4.
The Interaction Between Labor Market Policy and Monetary Policy: An Analysis of Time Inconsistency Problems. [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Еsa Johansson
This paper studies the interaction between time inconsistency problems in labor market policy and monetary policy. When both policies are discretionary, there is a positive inflation bias, whereas the bias in labor market programs may be either positive or negative. A commitment of labor market programs to zero increases inflation, as compared to the case when both labor market policy and monetary policy are discretionary. Delegation of labor market policy to a liberal labor market board may improve the discretionary outcome, even if labor market programs crowd out regular employment. A conservative central bank always reduces the social loss, even when monetary policy interacts with labor market policy.
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Lars Calmfors, Anders Forslund, Maria Hemstrom
The Swedish experiences of the 1990s provide a unique example of how large-scale active labour market programmes (ALMPs) have been used as a means to fight high unemployment. This paper discusses the mechanisms through which ALMPs affect (un)employment and surveys the empirical studies of the effects of ALMPs in Sweden. The main conclusions are: (i) there is hardly any evidence for a positive effect on matching efficiency; (ii) there are some indications of positive effects on labour force participation; (iii) subsidised employment seems to cause displacement of regular employment, whereas this appears not to be the case for labour market training; (iv) it is unclear whether or not ALMPs raise aggregate wage pressure in the economy; (v) in the 1990s, training programmes seem not to have enhanced the employment probabilities of participants, whereas some forms of subsidised employment seem to have had such effects; and (vi) youth programmes seem to have caused substantial displacement effects at the same time as the gains for participants appear uncertain. On the whole, ALMPs have probably reduced open unemployment, but also reduced regular employment. The overall policy conclusion is that ALMPs of the scale used in Sweden in the 1990s are not an efficient means of employment policy. To be effective, ALMPs should be used on a smaller scale. There should be a greater emphasis on holding down long-term unemployment in general and a smaller emphasis on youth programmes. ALMPs should not be used as a means to renew unemployment benefit eligibility.
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Greg Murtough, Matthew Waite
This paper investigates the extent to which employees with a casual employment contract can be viewed as a group with broadly similar personal characteristics and work arrangements. If most casual contract employees are similar, then it is probably valid to make general conclusions about their circumstances. Conversely, the presence of considerable diversity would suggest that generalisations about casual contract employment are inappropriate. This issue is of interest because generalisations are often made about how the welfare of workers has been affected by the rapid increase in casual employees as measured in regular surveys by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Robert Drago, Gerald T. Garvey
Recent advances in incentive theory stress the multi- dimensional nature of agent effort and particularly the case where workers can improve the performance of others through `helping' efforts. This paper provides a simple model of an agent's incentive to help depending on the compensation package, the cost of monitoring, and the allocation of tasks. We then analyze the determinants of reported helping efforts within workgroups for a sample of Australian workers. As expected, workers are less likely to help one another when promotion incentives are strong. Subsidiary results are consistent with our `contest' interpretation of this finding and not consistent with `gift exchange' or other variants of the efficiency wage hypothesis. Also as predicted, a wide range of job tasks amplifies the negative effect of promotional incentives, while monitoring of help mitigates the negative effect. We find an unexpected positive effect of piece rates on helping effort for long-term employees which we show is consistent with repeated game effects between workers. These considerations do not overturn our findings about the effects of tournaments.
Uncertainty and the Labor Market. [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Joseph Wesson
This paper describes the labor market in general, and the job search process in particular, as stochastic decay processes. this has implications in terms of information, discrimination and the Natural Rate Hypothesis.
Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002Andrew B. Abel, Janice C. Eberly American Economic Review. 1994. Vol. 84 . No. 1. P. 1369-1384.
This paper extends the theory of investment under uncertainty to incorporate fixed costs of investment, a wedge between the purchase price and sale price of capital, and potential irreversibility of investment. In this extended framework, investment is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow price of installed capital. There are potentially three investment regimes, which depend on the value of q relative to two critical values. For values of q above the upper critical value, investment is positive and is an increasing function of q, as is standard in the theory branch of the adjustment cost literature. For intermediate values of q, between two critical values, investment is zero. Although this regime features prominently in the irreversibility literature, it is largely ignored in the adjustment cost literature. Finally, if q is below the lower critical value, gross investment is negative, a possibility that is ruled out by assumption in the irreversibility of literature. In general, however, the shadow price q is not directly observable, so we present two examples relating q to observable varieties.
Опубликовано на портале: 04-12-2002Michael F. Bryan Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. 1997.
A historical look at the origin and uses of the word inflation, arguing that although the term has become nearly synonymous with "price increase," its original meaning--a rise in the general price level caused by an imbalance between the quantity of money and trade needs--is the definition driving many of those who advocate an anti-inflation policy for the Federal Reserve.