Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 1308
Опубликовано на портале: 22-08-2008
Дмитрий Борисович Коптюбенко
TERRA ECONOMICUS.
2006.
Т. 4.
№ 3.
С. 112-124.
В последние годы вопрос о природе денег привлек к себе повышенный интерес экономистов и социологов. Появление с середины 90-х годов феномена электронных квазиденег, эмитируемых частными организациями, заставило поставить под сомнение исключительный характер государственнической теории денег. Целью данной работе является рассмотрение феномена квазиденег сквозь призму дискуссии о необходимости вмешательства государства в процесс эмиссии.


Опубликовано на портале: 22-08-2008
Надежда Михайловна Розанова
TERRA ECONOMICUS.
2006.
Т. 4.
№ 3.
С. 71-83.
Все более и более явным оказывается тот факт, что финансовое развитие играет вполне самостоятельную и существенную роль в обеспечении стабильного экономического роста. Финансовая система не может более трактоваться исключительно как sideshow (по выражению ряда западных исследователей) реального сектора экономики.


Опубликовано на портале: 20-08-2008
Б.М. Рахаев, Б.М. Карчаева, Л.М. Кудалиева, М.Ш. Трамова
TERRA ECONOMICUS.
2006.
Т. 4.
№ 1.
С. 106-115.
В последние годы в России активно исследуется проблема экономического роста. Но экономический рост всякий раз вырывается из тисков наших исследований; о чем наглядно свидетельствует расхождение не только в оценках экспертов, но, что еще хуже, расхождение между прогнозными и фактическими данными. Необходим переход от детерминистического к вероятностному пониманию поведения хозяйственных систем.


Оценка качества жизни человека [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 20-08-2008
Д.Е. Давыдянц
TERRA ECONOMICUS.
2006.
Т. 4.
№ 1.
С. 98-105.
Оценка качества жизни напрямую связана с социально-экономической эффективностью. В статье предлагается критерий социально-экономической эффективности на макроуровне: увеличение продолжительности жизни человека на основе улучшения качества жизни.


Опубликовано на портале: 19-08-2008
Иван Вадимович Розмаинский
TERRA ECONOMICUS.
2006.
Т. 4.
№ 1.
С. 48-60.
Кривая Филлипса, по сути, является зеркальным отражением кривой совокупного предложения, причем это отражение носит «социальный» характер, поскольку описывает соотношение между инфляцией и безработицей. Данная работа посвящена сравнительному анализу конкурирующих подходов к кривой Филлипса с акцентом на методологические аспекты.


Non-Self-Averaging in Macroeconomic Models: A Criticism of Modern Micro-founded Macroeconomics [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Masanao Aoki, Hiroshi Yoshikawa
Economics Discussion Papers.
2007.
No. 2007-49.
Using a simple stochastic growth model, this paper demonstrates that the coefficient
of variation of aggregate output or GDP does not necessarily go to zero even if the
number of sectors or economic agents goes to infinity. This phenomenon known as non-self-averaging
implies that even if the number of economic agents is large, dispersion can remain
significant, and, therefore, that we can not legitimately focus on the means of aggregate
variables. It, in turn, means that the standard microeconomic foundations based on
the representative agent has little value for they are expected to provide us with
accurate dynamics of the means of aggregate variables. The paper also shows that
non-self-averaging emerges in some representative urn models. It suggests that non-self-averaging
is not pathological but quite generic. Thus, contrary to the main stream view, micro-founded
macroeconomics such as a dynamic general equilibrium model does not provide solid
micro foundations.



Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Lukas Menkhoff, Chodechai Suwanaporn
Diskussionspapiere des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Hannover.
2007.
No. 356.
This paper uses the framework of long-term financial system development to describe
and assess the reform process in Thailand after 1997. The present financial reforms
are well in line with the pattern of financial development found in the academic
literature. A detailed analysis of capital markets, specialized financial institutions
and supervisory regulation shows recent advancements and open issues. The rapid rise
of non-banks financial institutions can serve as a paradigmatic example of market
driven dynamism requiring appropriate policy action. Overall, the building of modern
and sophisticated financial institutions is an ongoing process which should consider
human resource constraints.


Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Elena Schneider, Pu Chen, Joachim Frohn
Economics Discussion Papers.
2007.
No. 2007-47.
The objective of this paper is to apply the method developed in Garratt, Lee, Pesaran,
and Shin (2000) to build a structural model for Germany with a transparent and theoretically
coherent foundation. The modelling strategy consists of a set of long-run structural
relationships suggested by economic theory and an otherwise unrestricted VAR model.
It turns out that we can rebuild the structure of the model in Garratt, Lee, Pesaran,
and Shin (2003b) for German data. Five long run relations : PPP, UIP, production
function, trade balance, and real money balance characterize the equilibrium state
of Germany as an open economy in our structural model.


Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Peter Charles Bonest Phillips
Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper.
2002.
No. 1264.
Some challenges for econometric research on trending time series are discussed in
relation to some perceived needs of macroeconomics and macroeconomic policy making.


Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Richard Mash
Kiel Working Papers.
2007.
No. 1358.
Models in which firms use rules of thumb or partial indexing in their price setting
have become prominent in the recent monetary policy literature. The extent to which
these firms adjust their prices to lagged inflation has been taken as fixed. We consider
the implications of firms choosing the optimal degree of indexation so these simple
pricing rules deliver prices as close as possible to those which would be chosen
optimally. We find that the degree of indexation depends on the extent of persistence
in the economy such that models with constant indexation are vulnerable to the Lucas
critique. We also study the interactions between firms price setting and the macroeconomic
environment finding that, for the models which appear most plausible on microeconomic
grounds, the Nash equilibrium between firms and the policy maker is characterized
by zero indexation and zero macroeconomic persistence.


Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Olaf Hübler, Lukas Menkhoff, Chodechai Suwanaporn
Diskussionspapiere des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Hannover.
2007.
No. 364.
Financial liberalisation has often failed in the past due to underestimated problems
of structural change. We analyse such changes in lending behaviour of Thai commercial
banks during a liberalisation phase by way of unique micro data. Liberalisation has
expected positive effects, such as lowering the interest rate spread and collateral
requirements. Liberalisation causes structural change, such as a decline in collateralbased
and relationship banking. However, the liberalisation evidence is consistent with
more risk taking, such as lending to more risky projects and less protection against
default. The Thai experience suggests obvious policy lessons.


Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Fujiki Hiroshi, Kiyoshi Watanabe
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Working Paper.
2003.
This paper studies a small open economy with a large external debt. It begins by
considering the long-term effects of shocks in the international capital market and
domestic fiscal policy on the amount of outstanding external debt and the domestic
reallocation of resources between the tradable and non-tradable goods sectors theoretically.
Then, numerical examples on various shocks are illustrated to help understand those
theoretical predictions. For example, an exogenous increase in government expenditures,
together with an increase in the external borrowing rate, requires resource reallocation
between the tradable goods sector and the non-tradable goods sector as well as a
small amount of external borrowings to shift toward the new stationary equilibrium,
whose welfare level worsens.


Introduction to Monetary Policy [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Glenn Hoggarth
London: Bank of England, 1996, cерия "Handbook of Central Banking", 26 с.
The key aim of monetary policy for most central banks is to keep inflation low and
steady. However in a market-oriented economy, central banks cannot control inflation
directly. They have to use instruments such as interest rates, the effects of which
on the economy are uncertain. And they have to rely on incomplete information about
the economy and its prospects. Some central banks use money growth or the exchange
rate as intermediate targets to guide policy decisions. Others take a more eclectic
approach and consider a range of factors. Monetary policy has occupied much time
of the world’s most distinguished economists over the years. This Handbook
provides an introductory overview to the subject. Following the introduction in Section
1, Section 2 describes the main costs of inflation. The next section provides an
overview of the various routes by which monetary policy transmits through the economy.
And Section 4 describes the alternative targets which central banks can use to guide
policy. Some conclusions are provided in Section 5. The purpose of this Handbook
is to assist monetary policy practitioners - those in central banks and governments
who are advising and taking decisions on monetary policy. Those new to the subject
may, it is hoped, find this a useful starting point for further reading and research.
This handbook is also available in Russian and Spanish.


Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007
Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves, João M. Salles
Journal of Development Economics.
2008.
Vol. 85.
No. 1-2.
P. 312-318.
In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005.
Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting
Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group
of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation
targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility
down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan's analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market
economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters,
developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in
inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime's
“constrained flexibility” to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete
welfare gains.


Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007
Marianne Nessén
Journal of Macroeconomics.
2002.
Vol. 24.
No. 3.
P. 313-329.
An inflation targeting central bank aims to stabilize the rate of inflation. But
which ‘inflation’ should this be? Quarterly, annual, biennial? We analyze
the effects on optimal monetary policy of increasing the period over which the inflation
rate is defined. When inflation stabilization is the sole objective of the central
bank, more aggressive monetary policy results; but when output stabilization is also
a concern the result is a more cautious conduct of monetary policy and less variability
in output. Thus, there is an observational equivalence between increasing the period
over which inflation is measured and increasing the weight on output stabilization
in the central bank’s objective function. The analogy between inflation targeting
with an infinite-period target and price level targeting is also examined.


Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007
Kirdan Lees
Journal of Macroeconomics.
2007.
Vol. 29.
No. 4.
P. 959-975.
This paper measures the benefits of commitment-based monetary policy over discretion
for a small open economy inflation targeting country—New Zealand. Significant
gains accrue from commitment policy. If commitment-based policy is unavailable, the
government can recoup much of the gains to commitment through optimal delegation,
asking the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to care more about inflation stabilisation.
The 1999 PTA, the core of the policy contract between the New Zealand government
and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, placed an increased emphasis on stabilisation
of output, interest rates and the exchange rate. This is inconsistent with a shift
to optimal delegation behaviour and must stem from a changed perception of the welfare
costs of macroeconomic stabilization on the part of the Government. This is shown
to be true when the definition of inflation is extended to a medium term measure.


Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007
Timo Wollmershäuser
Journal of Macroeconomics.
2006.
Vol. 28.
No. 3.
P. 493-519.
This paper evaluates the performance of simple policy rules in an open economy. By
introducing a high degree of exchange rate uncertainty we find that policy rules
with an important feedback from movements in the real exchange rate are very robust
to uncertainty about the true exchange rate model. A closed economy rule performs
badly in most exchange rate specifications. This is in contrast to the findings of
many other studies. In our view, this result is due to the fact that these studies
assume a known and reliable relationship between the exchange rate and the interest
rate.


Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007
Laurent Bilke, Livio Stracca
Economic Modelling.
2007.
Vol. 24.
No. 6.
P. 1032-1047.
We propose a new core inflation measure for the Euro area which places the emphasis
on the more lasting, i.e. persistent, price developments at a disaggregated level.
The importance of each component of the HICP is reweighted according to its relative
persistence, as measured by the sum of the autoregressive coefficients or by an indicator
of mean reversion. Unlike headline inflation, our baseline core inflation measure
is highly correlated with ECB monetary policy decisions, which could mean that they
contain ex ante (pre monetary policy) information on inflationary pressure.


Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007
Avner Bar-llan, Dan Lederman
Economics Letters.
2007.
Vol. 97.
No. 2.
P. 170-178.
We present a model that determines both monetary policy and level of international
reserves. Strict monetary policy would build precautionary reserves that allow future
monetary policy to better stabilize inflation and output and lower the likelihood
of forthcoming financial crisis


Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007
Frank Smets
Journal of Monetary Economics.
2003.
Vol. 50.
No. 6.
P. 1293-1309.
Using a small estimated forward looking model of the euro area economy, this paper
analyses the determinants of the optimal monetary policy horizon for maintaining
price stability. First, the optimal policy horizon for a price level objective is
generally longer than that for an inflation objective. Second, the policy horizon
becomes longer, the greater the weight on other objectives like minimising output
gap and interest rate variability. Third, the optimal policy horizon is shorter,
the higher the degree of “forward-lookingness” in the economy and the
greater the slope of the Phillips curve. Finally, even if society cares only about
inflation stabilisation, it often pays to give the central bank a price level objective,
provided the horizon is optimally chosen to be somewhat longer.

