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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 1297

Опубликовано на портале: 14-01-2003
Ред.: Sami Daniel, Philip Arestis, John Grahl
Northampton: Edward Elgar, 1999
This is the first of three volumes, written by an internationally renowned group of experts, to celebrate the contribution of Bernard Corry and Maurice Peston to teaching and research. In this first volume, the distinguished contributors provide original material on the formulation of macroeconomic policy in advanced countries ranging from a study of central bank independence, the consequences of European monetary union and macroeconomic policy in transition economies.
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Опубликовано на портале: 14-01-2003
Ricard T. Froyen
Upper Saddler River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2002
This text traces the history of macroeconomics, the evolution of macroeconomic thought, and the resulting theory and policy. The book places the various macroeconomic theories in the order in which they developed chronologically, and illustrates the similarities and differences of the models. The author admires all points of view and the result is a comprehensive, detailed, unbiased view of modern macroeconomic theory. Would you like a text that effectively compares and contrasts all the competing macroeconomic theories without espousing one particular point of view? For courses in Intermediate Macroeconomics.
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Economic Analysis Macro [учебная программа]
Опубликовано на портале: 14-01-2003
Martha Olney
Fall 2001
Курс "Экономический анализ. Макроэкономика" читается на втором курсе Университета Калифорнии в Беркли. Основными учебниками курса являются:
Dornbusch, Rudiger; Fischer, Stanley; and Startz, Richard. Macroeconomics. 8th edition. McGraw-Hill, Inc., 2001. и
DeLong, J. Bradford. Macroeconomics. 1st edition. McGraw-Hill, Inc., 2002

Требования курса: "Введение в Микроэкономику" и "Введение в Макроэкономику", курс высшей математики на уровне 1 курса университета.
Основные темы курса: IS-LM, AD-AS, открытая макроэкономика, макроэкономическая политика.

ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит прикрепленный файл

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler, Luis Serven
2003
Using a large sample of developing and industrialized economies during 1970-1999, this paper explores whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates. In most cases, we cannot reject full transmission of international interest rates in the long run, even for countries with floating regimes. Only large industrial countries can benefit, or choose to benefit, from independent monetary policy. However, short-run effects differ across regimes. Dynamic estimates show that interest rates of countries with more flexible regimes adjust more slowly to changes in international rates.

Odious Debt [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Michael Kremer, Seema Jayachandran
2003
Some argue that sovereign debt incurred without the consent of the people and not for their benefit, such as that of apartheid South Africa, should be considered odious and not transferable to successor governments. We argue that an institution that truthfully announced whether regimes are odious could create an equilibrium in which successor governments suffer no reputational loss from failure to repay odious debt and hence creditors curtail odious lending. Equilibria with odious lending could be eliminated by amending creditor country laws to prevent seizure of assets for failure to repay odious debt and restricting foreign assistance to countries not repaying odious debt. Shutting down the borrowing capacity of illegitimate regimes can be viewed as a form of economic sanction and has two advantages over most sanctions: it helps rather than hurts the population, and it does not create incentives for evasion by third parties. However, an institution empowered to assess regimes might falsely term debt odious if it favored debtors, and if creditors anticipate this, they would not make loans to legitimate governments. An institution empowered only to declare future lending to a particular government odious would have greater incentives to judge truthfully. A similar approach could be used to reduce moral hazard associated with World Bank and IMF loans.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Michael M. Hutchison
2003
This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), authors find that currency crises even after controlling for macroeconomic developments, political and regional factors significantly reduce output growth for 1-2 years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage points annually) during IMF-stabilization programs, but it appears that growth generally slows prior to implementation of the program. Moreover, programs coinciding with recent balance of payments or currency crises do not appear to further damage short-run growth prospects. Countries participating in IMF programs significantly reduce domestic credit growth, but no effect is found on budget policy. Applying this model to the collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in Malaysia where an IMF-program was not followed-- was similar in magnitude to those countries adopting IMF programs (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand).

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart
2003
With many emerging market currencies tied to the U.S. dollar either implicitly or explicitly, movements in the exchange values of the currencies of major countries have the potential to influence the competitive position of many developing countries. According to some analysts, establishing target bands to reduce the variability of the G-3 currencies would limit those destabilizing shocks emanating from abroad. This paper examines the argument for such a target zone strictly from an emerging market perspective. Given that sterilized intervention by industrial economies tends to be ineffective and that policy makers show no appetite to return to the controls on international capital flows that helped keep exchange rates stable over the Bretton Woods era, a commitment to damping G-3 exchange rate fluctuations requires a willingness on the part of G-3 authorities to use domestic monetary policy to that end. Under a system of target zones, then, relative prices for emerging market economies may become more stable, but debt-servicing costs may become less predictable. We use a simple trade model to show that the resulting consequences for welfare are ambiguous. Our empirical work supplements the traditional literature on North-South links by examining the importance of the volatilities of G-3 exchange-rates, and U.S. interest rate and consumption on capital flows and economic growth in developing countries over the past thirty years.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Andres Velasco
2003
This paper develops a political-economic model of fiscal policy one in which" government resources are a common property' out of which interest groups can finance" expenditures on their preferred items. This setup has striking macroeconomic implications. First, fiscal deficits and debt accumulation occur even when there are no reasons for intertemporal smoothing. Second deficits can be eliminated through a fiscal reform, but such a reform may only take place after a delay during which government debt is built up.

Government Debt [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Douglas W. Elmendorf, Gregory N. Mankiw
2003
This paper surveys the literature on the macroeconomic effects of government debt. It begins by discussing the data on debt and deficits, including the historical time series, measurement issues, and projections of future fiscal policy. The paper then presents the conventional theory of government debt, which emphasizes aggregate demand in the short run and crowding out in the long run. It next examines the theoretical and empirical debate over the theory of debt neutrality called Ricardian equivalence. Finally, the paper considers the various normative perspectives about how the government should use its ability to borrow.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Aaron Tornell, Philip Lane Journal of International Economics. 1998.  Vol. 44. P. 83-112. 
In several countries temporary terms of trade improvements have led to a deterioration of the current account. Furthermore, many of these countries failed to attain greater post-boom growth rates. The point we make is that the structure of the fiscal process is critical in determining outcomes. If fiscal control is unitary, then the consumption-smoothing effect is operative, and representative-agent models of the current account have predictive power. However, if control is divided among several fiscal claimants, a voracity effect appears which counteracts the consumption-smoothing effect, leading to a deterioration of the current account in response to a positive shock. We model the interaction among fiscal claimants as a dynamic game, and show that in equilibrium aggregate appropriation increases more than the windfall itself. This results in a deterioration of the current account. We also show that all the windfall is dissipated, with the country experiencing no increase in its growth rate. Lastly, we analyze the experiences of seven countries which have enjoyed large windfalls.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic. 1998.  Vol. Volume 84/4 . P. 53-72. 
It is well known that when inflation is stochastic, Fisher's theoretical equation, according to which the nominal interest rate is the sum of the real rate and the expected inflation rate, fails to hold. Under stochastic inflation, the Fisher equation must be amended to include a compensation for inflation risk: the inflation risk premium. Consequently, this article uses a simple consumption-based asset pricing model to investigate the significance of the inflation risk premium. Given the relationship between U.S. consumption growth and inflation, we find that historical estimates of the inflation risk premium are inconsequential. This result emerges because inflation surprises and unexpected movements in consumption growth exhibit little covariation in U.S. data. Moreover, using two different preference specifications, we also show that this result is quite unrelated to the notion that the equity risk premium is generally small in consumption-based asset pricing models.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Joro R. Faria Journal of Applied Economics. 2001.  Vol. IV. P. 89-105 . 
This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and output in the context of an economy facing persistent high inflation. By analyzing the case of Brazil, we find that inflation does not impact real output in the long run, but that in the short run there exists a negative effect from inflation on output. These results support Sidrauskis (1967) superneutrality of money in the long run, but cast doubt on the short run implications of the model for separable utility functions in consumption and real money balances, as exposed by Fischer (1979). The results are more likely to support a class of utility functions in which real money balances and consumption are perfect complements.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
David R.F. Love, Jean-Francois Wen Canadian Journal of Economics. 1999.  Vol. 32 . No. 1. P. 171-194 . 
The costs of inflation are assessed using an endogenous growth macroeconomic model in which money reduces the time-costs of transacting. Inflation reduces growth in the model, which supports recent empirical evidence. Although simulations show time-costs to be small, inflation raises these costs and affects consumption, employment, and growth margins, implying greater welfare losses than generally found in the literature. The authors estimate welfare gains of 2 percent of GNP for reductions in inflation rates from 5 percent to zero when seignorage revenues are replaced with distortional taxes. Optimal inflation rates are negative.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Lynn Elaine Browne, Rebecca Hellerstein, Jane Sneddon Little New England Economic Review. 1998.  P. 3-32. 
In 1980's, a new convention emerged in the economics profession - that central banks' primary, even sole, responsibility should be controlling consumer price inflation. By the 1990's, this view was gaining credibility in policy circles, and various countries mandated that their central banks make inflation their primary focus (generally with and escape clause in the event of a severe economic shock). Here in the United States, this orthodoxy never gained official status; rather, the U.S. policy goal remains promoting stable long-term growth using a variety of theoretical approaches. ; The recent problems in East Asia, as well as earlier difficulties in Japan, raise the question of whether such a concentrated focus on inflation became tunnel vision. Drawing on the crises in Japan and other Asian countries, with reference to comparable episodes in the United States, this article suggests that a preoccupation with inflation may have lulled policymakers and investors into ignoring useful signals from stock, real estate, and currency markets and from emerging imbalances in the real economy. Whether such imbalances would have been better addressed by monetary policy, or by improved disclosure, supervisory intervention, or tax policy, a broader perspective might have identified problems in Asia before they assumed such crippling proportions. ; This article concludes by suggesting that policymakers may want to look for signs of overheating emanating from asset markets and from emerging imbalances in the real economy, even when consumer prices are well behaved. Signs that high levels of debt may be financing increasingly optimistic investments warrant particular concern. The article also stresses the vulnerabilities that newly liberalized financial markets may introduce and the importance of measures that encourage the private sector to price risk more accurately and force it to bear the costs of international financial crises more fully. Overall, it advocates an eclectic approach to assessing economic performance.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Andres Velasco, Eric Parrado
2003
Using an optimizing model we derive the optimal monetary and exchange rate policy for a small stochastic open economy with imperfect competition and short run price rigidity. The optimal monetary policy has an exact closed-form solution and is obtained using the utility function of the representative home agent as welfare criterion. The optimal policy depends on the source of stochastic disturbances affecting the economy, much as in the literature pioneered by Poole (1970). Optimal monetary policy reacts to domestic and foreign disturbances. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is less than one, as is likely to be the case empirically, the optimal exchange rate policy implies a dirty float: interest rate shocks from abroad are met partially by adjusting home interest rates, and partially by allowing the exchange rate to move. This optimal pattern may help rationalize the observed fear of floating.

Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002
Andrew B. Abel, Janice C. Eberly American Economic Review. 1994.  Vol. 84 . No. 1. P. 1369-1384. 
This paper extends the theory of investment under uncertainty to incorporate fixed costs of investment, a wedge between the purchase price and sale price of capital, and potential irreversibility of investment. In this extended framework, investment is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow price of installed capital. There are potentially three investment regimes, which depend on the value of q relative to two critical values. For values of q above the upper critical value, investment is positive and is an increasing function of q, as is standard in the theory branch of the adjustment cost literature. For intermediate values of q, between two critical values, investment is zero. Although this regime features prominently in the irreversibility literature, it is largely ignored in the adjustment cost literature. Finally, if q is below the lower critical value, gross investment is negative, a possibility that is ruled out by assumption in the irreversibility of literature. In general, however, the shadow price q is not directly observable, so we present two examples relating q to observable varieties.
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Опубликовано на портале: 04-12-2002
Michael F. Bryan Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. 1997. 
A historical look at the origin and uses of the word inflation, arguing that although the term has become nearly synonymous with "price increase," its original meaning--a rise in the general price level caused by an imbalance between the quantity of money and trade needs--is the definition driving many of those who advocate an anti-inflation policy for the Federal Reserve.
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