**Всего публикаций в данном разделе:**1310

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*Andres Velasco*

2003

This paper develops a political-economic model of fiscal policy one in which" government
resources are a common property' out of which interest groups can finance" expenditures
on their preferred items. This setup has striking macroeconomic implications. First,
fiscal deficits and debt accumulation occur even when there are no reasons for intertemporal
smoothing. Second deficits can be eliminated through a fiscal reform, but such a
reform may only take place after a delay during which government debt is built up.

**Government Debt**[книги]

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*Douglas W. Elmendorf*,

*Gregory N. Mankiw*

2003

This paper surveys the literature on the macroeconomic effects of government debt.
It begins by discussing the data on debt and deficits, including the historical time
series, measurement issues, and projections of future fiscal policy. The paper then
presents the conventional theory of government debt, which emphasizes aggregate demand
in the short run and crowding out in the long run. It next examines the theoretical
and empirical debate over the theory of debt neutrality called Ricardian equivalence.
Finally, the paper considers the various normative perspectives about how the government
should use its ability to borrow.

**Are Windfalls a Curse? A Non-Representative Agent Model of the Current Account and Fiscal Policy**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*Aaron Tornell*,

*Philip Lane*Journal of International Economics. 1998. Vol. 44. P. 83-112.

In several countries temporary terms of trade improvements have led to a deterioration
of the current account. Furthermore, many of these countries failed to attain greater
post-boom growth rates. The point we make is that the structure of the fiscal process
is critical in determining outcomes. If fiscal control is unitary, then the consumption-smoothing
effect is operative, and representative-agent models of the current account have
predictive power. However, if control is divided among several fiscal claimants,
a voracity effect appears which counteracts the consumption-smoothing effect, leading
to a deterioration of the current account in response to a positive shock. We model
the interaction among fiscal claimants as a dynamic game, and show that in equilibrium
aggregate appropriation increases more than the windfall itself. This results in
a deterioration of the current account. We also show that all the windfall is dissipated,
with the country experiencing no increase in its growth rate. Lastly, we analyze
the experiences of seven countries which have enjoyed large windfalls.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte*Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic. 1998. Vol. Volume 84/4 . P. 53-72.

It is well known that when inflation is stochastic, Fisher's theoretical equation,
according to which the nominal interest rate is the sum of the real rate and the
expected inflation rate, fails to hold. Under stochastic inflation, the Fisher equation
must be amended to include a compensation for inflation risk: the inflation risk
premium. Consequently, this article uses a simple consumption-based asset pricing
model to investigate the significance of the inflation risk premium. Given the relationship
between U.S. consumption growth and inflation, we find that historical estimates
of the inflation risk premium are inconsequential. This result emerges because inflation
surprises and unexpected movements in consumption growth exhibit little covariation
in U.S. data. Moreover, using two different preference specifications, we also show
that this result is quite unrelated to the notion that the equity risk premium is
generally small in consumption-based asset pricing models.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*Joro R. Faria*Journal of Applied Economics. 2001. Vol. IV. P. 89-105 .

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and output in the context
of an economy facing persistent high inflation. By analyzing the case of Brazil,
we find that inflation does not impact real output in the long run, but that in the
short run there exists a negative effect from inflation on output. These results
support Sidrauskis (1967) superneutrality of money in the long run, but cast doubt
on the short run implications of the model for separable utility functions in consumption
and real money balances, as exposed by Fischer (1979). The results are more likely
to support a class of utility functions in which real money balances and consumption
are perfect complements.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*David R.F. Love*,

*Jean-Francois Wen*Canadian Journal of Economics. 1999. Vol. 32 . No. 1. P. 171-194 .

The costs of inflation are assessed using an endogenous growth macroeconomic model
in which money reduces the time-costs of transacting. Inflation reduces growth in
the model, which supports recent empirical evidence. Although simulations show time-costs
to be small, inflation raises these costs and affects consumption, employment, and
growth margins, implying greater welfare losses than generally found in the literature.
The authors estimate welfare gains of 2 percent of GNP for reductions in inflation
rates from 5 percent to zero when seignorage revenues are replaced with distortional
taxes. Optimal inflation rates are negative.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*Lynn Elaine Browne*,

*Rebecca Hellerstein*,

*Jane Sneddon Little*New England Economic Review. 1998. P. 3-32.

In 1980's, a new convention emerged in the economics profession - that central banks'
primary, even sole, responsibility should be controlling consumer price inflation.
By the 1990's, this view was gaining credibility in policy circles, and various countries
mandated that their central banks make inflation their primary focus (generally with
and escape clause in the event of a severe economic shock). Here in the United States,
this orthodoxy never gained official status; rather, the U.S. policy goal remains
promoting stable long-term growth using a variety of theoretical approaches. ; The
recent problems in East Asia, as well as earlier difficulties in Japan, raise the
question of whether such a concentrated focus on inflation became tunnel vision.
Drawing on the crises in Japan and other Asian countries, with reference to comparable
episodes in the United States, this article suggests that a preoccupation with inflation
may have lulled policymakers and investors into ignoring useful signals from stock,
real estate, and currency markets and from emerging imbalances in the real economy.
Whether such imbalances would have been better addressed by monetary policy, or by
improved disclosure, supervisory intervention, or tax policy, a broader perspective
might have identified problems in Asia before they assumed such crippling proportions.
; This article concludes by suggesting that policymakers may want to look for signs
of overheating emanating from asset markets and from emerging imbalances in the real
economy, even when consumer prices are well behaved. Signs that high levels of debt
may be financing increasingly optimistic investments warrant particular concern.
The article also stresses the vulnerabilities that newly liberalized financial markets
may introduce and the importance of measures that encourage the private sector to
price risk more accurately and force it to bear the costs of international financial
crises more fully. Overall, it advocates an eclectic approach to assessing economic
performance.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003

*Andres Velasco*,

*Eric Parrado*

2003

Using an optimizing model we derive the optimal monetary and exchange rate policy
for a small stochastic open economy with imperfect competition and short run price
rigidity. The optimal monetary policy has an exact closed-form solution and is obtained
using the utility function of the representative home agent as welfare criterion.
The optimal policy depends on the source of stochastic disturbances affecting the
economy, much as in the literature pioneered by Poole (1970). Optimal monetary policy
reacts to domestic and foreign disturbances. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution
in consumption is less than one, as is likely to be the case empirically, the optimal
exchange rate policy implies a dirty float: interest rate shocks from abroad are
met partially by adjusting home interest rates, and partially by allowing the exchange
rate to move. This optimal pattern may help rationalize the observed fear of floating.

Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002

*Andrew B. Abel*,

*Janice C. Eberly*American Economic Review. 1994. Vol. 84 . No. 1. P. 1369-1384.

This paper extends the theory of investment under uncertainty to incorporate fixed
costs of investment, a wedge between the purchase price and sale price of capital,
and potential irreversibility of investment. In this extended framework, investment
is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow price of installed capital. There are
potentially three investment regimes, which depend on the value of q relative to
two critical values. For values of q above the upper critical value, investment is
positive and is an increasing function of q, as is standard in the theory branch
of the adjustment cost literature. For intermediate values of q, between two critical
values, investment is zero. Although this regime features prominently in the irreversibility
literature, it is largely ignored in the adjustment cost literature. Finally, if
q is below the lower critical value, gross investment is negative, a possibility
that is ruled out by assumption in the irreversibility of literature. In general,
however, the shadow price q is not directly observable, so we present two examples
relating q to observable varieties.

Опубликовано на портале: 04-12-2002

*Michael F. Bryan*Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. 1997.

A historical look at the origin and uses of the word inflation, arguing that although
the term has become nearly synonymous with "price increase," its original meaning--a
rise in the general price level caused by an imbalance between the quantity of money
and trade needs--is the definition driving many of those who advocate an anti-inflation
policy for the Federal Reserve.