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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 293

Опубликовано на портале: 27-10-2004
Iris Claus, David Haugh, Grant Scobie, Jonas Tornquist Treasury Working Papers. 2001.  No. 01/32.
Concern has been raised by an apparent lack of saving in New Zealand. It is often argued that policies which foster savings are important, as higher savings will contribute to higher economic growth. This paper investigates the link between saving, investment and growth. In particular, it focuses on issues potentially important in an open economy such as New Zealand. Theory predicts that increased total saving will lead to higher investment and output. In an open economy, total saving comprises saving by domestic agents (government, firms and households) plus foreign saving. Diversified portfolios, large inflows of foreign investment into New Zealand and investment rates comparable to those in other OECD countries suggest that New Zealand, so far, has been able to access foreign saving to meet investment demands. Domestic saving does not appear to have constrained investment and hence growth.
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Опубликовано на портале: 27-10-2004
Basil M. H. Sharp Treasury Working Papers. 2002.  No. 02/20.
Economic theory provides a coherent framework for analysing the elements of growth and sustainable development. Robust policies and appropriate institutional structures are essential to achieving sustainable development. Environmental problems are rooted in failed markets and their resolution requires government taking some kind of action – to establish property rights, set standards of liability, apply polluter pays taxes, or regulate. There is ample evidence showing that market based instruments can achieve the same environmental outcome at considerably less cost relative to command and control. Rational policy must seriously consider the use of market-based instruments. A framework for considering the quality of institutional structures vis-à-vis achieving sustainable development is presented. The framework is applied to aspects of the Resource Management Act 1991. Although the Act aims to promote sustainable management it is the primary legal foundation for sustainable development policy. One result of the Act was to devolve a great deal of environmental management and policy to local government. To a limited extent the Act is permissive and creates opportunities for local and regional government to find effective and efficient ways of achieving environmental outcomes that suit their communities. There is a clear preference for command and control in situations where statute provides a legal framework for market based instruments. But the options for using market-based instruments are limited. There are instances where attempts by regional administrators to implement market-based instruments are thwarted either by statute or by coordination difficulties at higher levels of government. Barriers to using market-based instruments are identified along with suggestions for institutional reform.
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Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004
Pete Richardson OECD Economics Department Working Papers. 1997. 
This paper was prepared in the OECD Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation-wide study entitled, "Towards a New Global Age". It examines macro-structural economic developments in and between OECD and non-OECD economies, the economic linkages and a number of structural factors and policies which have influenced growth performance. It goes on to consider a number of alternative forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios to 2020 for the world economy based on different hypotheses about economic policies and other factors influencing factor productivity developments. A final section provides a model-based evaluation of the potential influence of some of the key factors underlying these scenarios, in particular the influence of demographic changes such as population ageing and alternative fiscal policies.
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Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004
Giuseppe Nicoletti, Stefano Scarpetta OECD Economics Department Working Papers. 2003. 
In this paper, we relate the scope and depth of regulatory reforms to growth outcomes in OECD countries. By means of a new set of quantitative indicators of regulation, we show that the cross-country variation of regulatory settings has increased in recent years, despite extensive liberalisation and privatisation in the OECD area. We then look at the regulation-growth linkage using data that cover a large set of manufacturing and service industries over the past two decades. We focus on multifactor productivity (MFP), which plays a crucial role in GDP growth and accounts for a significant share of its cross-country variance. We find evidence that reforms promoting private governance and competition (where these are viable) tend to boost productivity. Both privatisation and entry liberalisation are estimated to have a positive impact on productivity. In manufacturing the gains are greater the further a given country is from the technology leader, suggesting that regulation limiting entry may hinder the adoption of existing technologies, possibly by reducing competitive pressures, technology spillovers, or the entry of new high- tech firms. These results offer an interpretation to the observed recent differences in growth patterns across OECD countries, in particular between large Continental European economies and the United States. Strict product market regulations—and lack of regulatory reforms—are likely to underlie the relatively poorer productivity performance of some European countries, especially in those industries where Europe has accumulated a technology gap (e.g. ICT-related industries)
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Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004
Shankha Chakraborty UO Economics Department Working Papers. 2002. 
Conventional wisdom attributes the severity of mortality in poorer countries to widespread poverty and inadequate living conditions. This paper considers the possibility that persistent poverty may arise, in turn, from a high incidence of mortality. Endogenous mortality risk is introduced in a two-period overlapping generations model: probability of survival from the first period to the next depends upon health capital that can be augmented through public investment. High mortality societies do not grow fast since shorter lifespans discourage saving and investment; multiple steady-states are possible. High mortality also reduces returns on investments, like education, where risks are undiversifiable. When human capital drives economic growth, countries differing in only health capital do not converge to similar living standards; 'threshold effects' may also result.
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Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004
Alejandro Ramirez, Gustav Ranis, Frances Stewart QEH Working Paper Series. 1998.  No. 18.
This paper explores the links between economic growth and human development, identifying two chains, one from economic growth to human development, and the other, conversely, from human development to economic growth. The various links in each chain are explored, together with a review of some existing empirical material on their importance. The paper examines the significance of the relationships, for the chains as a whole and for particular links in them, with the help of cross-country statistics for the period 1970-92. It finds that there exists a strong positive relationship in both directions and that public expenditure on social services and female education are especially important links determining the strength of the relationship between economic growth and human development, while the investment rate and income distribution are significant links in determining the strength of the relationship between human development and economic growth. The existence of these chains gives rise to the potential for virtuous or vicious cycles of development, with good or bad performance on HD and economic growth reinforcing each other over time. The paper concludes by classifying the actual performance of developing countries into these virtuous and vicious cycles, as well as identifying lop- sided performers, with good performance in one dimension but not the other, and explores how country classification can change over time. We find that lop-sided development almost never persists: countries which are initially lop-sided favoring economic growth always lapse into the vicious category; but countries where HD is favored can move into the virtuous category. This has strong sequencing implications, implying that, while ideally both HD and economic growth should be jointly promoted, HD should be given priority where a choice is necessary.
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Speculative Growth [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004
Ricardo J. Caballero, Mohamad L. Hammour NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  w9381.
We propose a framework for understanding recurrent historical episodes of vigorous economic expansion accompanied by extreme asset valuations, as exhibited by Japan in the 1980's and the U.S. in the 1990's. We interpret this phenomenon as a high-valuation equilibrium with a low effective cost of capital based on optimism about the future availability of funds for investment. The key to the sustainability of such equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to an increase in the supply of funding. We show that such feedback arises naturally when the expansion is concentrated in a new economy' sector and when it is supported by sustained financial surpluses-both of which would constitute an integral part, as cause and consequence, of a speculative growth' equilibrium. The high-valuation equilibrium we analyze may take the form of a stock market bubble. In contrast to classic bubbles on non-productive assets, the bubbles in our model encourage real investments, boost long run savings, and may appear in dynamically efficient economies.
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Обновлено: 09-12-2010

Журнал издается Сибирским отделением РАН. Главный редактор журнала кандидат экономических наук В. Е. Селиверстов Журнал выходит с 1994 г. 4 раза в год. Единственный научный журнал на востоке России, отражающий новые экономические и политические реалии страны, возросшее влияние региональных аспектов практически на все стороны жизни нашего государства.

Опубликовано на портале: 08-10-2004
Masahiko Aoki, Yujiro Hayami
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000, 419 с.
This volume presents historical, contemporary, and theoretical perspectives on the role of local communities and social norms in the economic development process. Using historical evidence combined with recent developments in institutional economics involving game theory and contracts, it establishes that communities can enhance the development of a market economy under certain circumstances, and sheds light on what those circumstances are.

Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2004
Акихиро Ишикава Проблемы теории и практики управления. 2003.  № 1. С. 65-68. 
Модернизация в Японии в конце XIX и ХХ вв. развивалась под влиянием западных образцов экономического развития с упором на собственную модель роста экономики, осуществляемую под руководством государства. Она опиралась на позитивные тенденции и особенности трудовых отношений и общественной жизни и постоянно модифицировалась при активной роли государства.
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Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2004
Николай Петраков Проблемы теории и практики управления. 2003.  № 1. С. 15-21. 
В дискуссиях о перспективах экономического роста в России в качестве локомотивных отраслей часто называют топливно-энергетический комплекс, самолетостроение, космические исследования, жилищное строительство и т.д. В подобных утверждениях много справедливого, но есть и существенный изъян – в них отсутствует системность, общий концептуальный подход к решению задачи. Теоретически любая отрасль может рассматриваться как точка потенциального роста. Проблема лишь в том, как в течение 3 – 5 лет раскрутить российскую экономику в целом. А для этого следует обратиться к источникам развития России как неординарной державы.
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Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2004
Marshall A. Goldman Проблемы теории и практики управления. 2003.  № 1. С. 36-40. 
Прошло более 10 лет после распада СССР, и сегодня Россия вновь вызывает к себе большой интерес. Ряд аналитиков утверждают, что она не только восприняла рынок, но находится на пути к достижению экономического чуда. Безусловно, России удалось преодолеть многие трудности. Ее экономика не только стабилизировалась. С начала 1999 г. отмечается постепенный рост промышленного производства, и хотя недавно он замедлился, на фоне экономических проблем США, Японии и даже Германии такая динамика впечатляет. Кроме того, значительное положительное сальдо внешней торговли вызвало внушительный прирост валютных резервов. После сокращения в 1998 г. до уровня, едва превышающего 10 млрд долл., в середине 2002 г. они возросли до более чем 40 млрд долл. Подобное «оздоровление» избавило Россию от необходимости искать новые международные займы, и к удивлению многих она стала добровольно осуществлять досрочные выплаты по некоторым долговым обязательствам. Под влиянием позитивных изменений постепенно обрел второе дыхание российский фондовый рынок, который в конце 2001 – начале 2002 гг. стал одним из самых динамичных в мире.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Елена Игоревна Панова
Уклонение от уплаты налогов является одним из наиболее серьезных препятствий для экономического роста в России. Данная проблема, в частности проблема существование “теневого” сектора, широко обсуждалась в экономической литературе. Эта работа основана на модели Ковелла и Гордона, построенной ими в [2]. В исходной модели изучается уклонение от налогов и учитывается, что налогоплательщики могут становиться “призраками”, неизвестными налоговой инспекции, полностью уходя в “тень”. В данной работе рассматриваются причины, по которым “призраки” могут не захотеть увеличивать выпуск и инвестировать в производство. Выясняется, что при некоторых условиях фирмы, проводящие исключительно нелегальные операции, могут вовсе не инвестировать в производство. Таким образом, фискальная политика, порождающая расширение теневого сектора, потенциально замедляет экономический рост.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Sebastian Edwards
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigate whether, as its supporters' claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyze this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major term of trade and capital flows shocks.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Sebastian Edwards, I. Igal Magendzo NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. 
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigating whether, as its supporters' claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyze this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major term of trade and capital flows shocks.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Alan B. Krueger, Mikael Lindahl NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. 
This paper tries to reconcile evidence from the microeconometric and empirical macro growth literatures on the effect of schooling on income and GDP growth. Much microeconometric evidence suggest that education is an important causal determinant of income for individuals within countries. At a national level, however, recent studies have found that increases in educational attainment are unrelated to economic growth. This finding appears to be a spurious result of the extremely high rate of measurement error in first-differenced cross-country education data. After accounting for measurement error, the effect of changes in educational attainment on income growth in cross-country data is at least as great as microeconometric estimates of the rate of return to years of schooling. Another finding of the macro growth literature - that economic growth depends positively on the initial stock of human capital - is shown to result from imposing linearity and constant-coefficient assumptions on the estimates. These restrictions are often rejected by the data, and once either assumption is relaxed the initial level of education has little effect on economic growth for the average country.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-09-2004
Юрий Валерьевич Латов TERRA ECONOMICUS. 2003.  Т. 1. № 1. С. 100-115. 
В статье рассматриваются основные типы перехода от одной социально-экономической системы к другой с точки зрения сочетания элементов качественного развития и количественного роста. На основе обобщения исторических фактов сделан вывод о возможности качественного развития в условиях спада количественных индикаторов хозяйственной жизни. Далее на материалах коллективной монографии «Экономические субъекты постсоветской России (институциональный анализ)» автор статьи выделяет основные критерии социально-экономического развития индивидов, фирм и государства, после чего рассматривает, можно ли говорить применительно к России 1990-х гг. о развитии или о нарастании недоразвитости. Сделан вывод об абсолютном преобладании в «ельцинской» переходной экономике негативных тенденций качественного развития и намечены подходы к дальнейшему изучению данной проблемы.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Peter L. Rousseau, Richard Sylla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8323.
This paper brings together two strands of the economic literature -- that on the finance-growth nexus and that on capital market integration -- and explores key issues surrounding each strand through both institutional/country histories and formal quantitative analysis. We begin with studies of the Dutch Republic, England, the U.S., France, Germany and Japan that span three centuries, detailing how in each case the emergence of a financial system jump-started economic growth. Using a cross-country panel of seventeen countries covering the 1850-1997 period, we then uncover a robust correlation between financial factors and economic growth that is consistent with a leading role for finance, and show that these effects were strongest over the 80 years preceding the Great Depression. Next, we show that countries with more sophisticated financial systems engage in more trade and appear to be better integrated with other economies by identifying roles for both finance and trade in the convergence of interest rates that occurred among the Atlantic economies prior to 1914. Our results suggest that the growth and increasing globalization of these economies might indeed have been 'finance-led.'
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Robert J. Barro NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8330.
In 1997-98, five east Asian countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand - experienced sharp currency and banking crises. The contraction of real GDP was severe in relation to the previous history and in comparison with five east Asian countries that were less affected by the financial crisis. Recoveries in the five crisis countries in 1999-2000 were strong in most cases, but it is unclear whether the pre-crisis growth paths will be reattained. Indications for permanently depressed prospects come from the sharp reductions in investment ratios, which have recovered only slightly, and the lowered stock-market prices. A panel analysis for a broad group of economies shows that a combined currency and banking crisis typically reduces economic growth over a five-year period by 2% per year, compared with 3% per year for the 1997-98 crisis in east Asia. The broader analysis found no evidence that financial crises had effects on growth that persisted beyond a five-year period.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Louis K.C. Chan NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8282.
Expected long-term earnings growth rates are crucial inputs to valuation models and for cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long-term growth rates across a broad cross-section of stocks using several operating performance indicators. We test whether growth persists, and whether it is forecastable. Cases of very high growth have occurred, but are relatively rare. There is scant persistence in growth beyond chance, and limited ability to identify firms with high future long- term growth. IBES forecasts are too optimistic, and have low predictive power for long-term growth. Regressions using a variety of predictors confirm the low predictability in growth. Valuations that assume persistently high growth over prolonged periods rest on shaky foundations.
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