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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 137

Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Robert Glenn Hubbard, Anil K. Kashyap, Toni M. Whited Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 1995.  Vol. 27. No. 3. P. 683-701 . 
Paper examines the neoclassical model using a panel of U.S. manufacturing firms. The standard model with no financing constraints cannot be rejected for firms with high (pre-sample) dividend payouts. However, it is decisively rejected for firms with low (pre-sample) payouts (firms we expect to face financing constraints). Here, investment is sensitive to both firm cash flow and macroeconomic credit conditions, holding constant investment opportunities. Sample splits based on firm size or maturity do not produce such distinction. The letter comparison identifies firms where "free-cash-flow" problems might be expected to produce correlations between investment and cash flow.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Tullio Jappelli, Franco Modigliani Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF) Working Papers. 1998.  No. 09.
The life-cycle hypothesis posits that saving is positive for young households and negative for the retired, so that wealth should be hump-shaped. Yet, if one looks at the microeconomic evidence on saving by age, dissaving by the elderly is limited or absent. But the saving measures usually computed on cross-sections or panel data are based on a concept of income that does not take into account the presence of pension arrangements. In fact, disposable income treats pension contributions as taxes, and pension benefits as transfers. But since contributions entitle the payer to receive a pension after retirement, contributions should be regarded as life-cycle saving and hence included back to income. Similarly, pension benefits accruing to the retired do not represent income produced, but a drawing from the pension wealth accumulated up to retirement. We use Italian repeated cross-sectional data from 1984 to 1995 to show the importance of this adjustment for the evaluation of the saving behavior of the elderly.
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Опубликовано на портале: 21-09-2004
Andrew A. Samwick National Tax Journal. 1998.  Vol. 51. P. 621-635. 
If the United States switched to a broad-based consumption tax, than all forms of saving would enjoy the tax-preferred status reserved primarily for retirement saving vehicles under the current income tax system. Because pensions have other unique characteristics besides their tax advantage, current results on the effect of pensions on saving may provide an unreliable guide to the saving response to fundamental tax reform. The net effect of reform on saving depends critically on household motives for saving. This paper documents the considerable variation in the reasons why households save and presents a buffer stock model of saving that allows for both life cycle and target saving. To the extent that specific targets that are not currently tax-favored motivate the saving of households in their preretirement years, fundamental tax reform that results in the elimination of current pension plans will reduce saving.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Simon Gilchrist, Charles Himmelberg NBER Working Paper Series. 1998.  No. 6652.
Financial variables such as cash flow and cash stocks are robust and quantitatively important explanatory variables for investment at the firm-level. A large body of recent empirical work attributes these findings to capital market imperfections. This interpretation is controversial, however, because even in the absence of capital market imperfections, such financial variables may appear as an explanatory variable for investment if they contain information about the expected marginal value of capital. In this paper, we show how structural models of investment with costly external finance can be used to identify and quantify the fundamental' versus the financial' determinants of investment. Our empirical results show that investment responds significantly to both fundamental and financial factors. Point estimates from our structural model imply that, for the average firm in our sample, financial factors raise the overall response of investment to an expansionary shock by 25%, relative to a baseline case where financial frictions are zero. Consistent with theory, small firms and firms without bond ratings show the strongest response to financial factors, while bond-rated firms show little if any response once we control for investment fundamentals.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Laurence M. Ball, David Romer Review of Economic Studies. 1990.  Vol. 57. No. 2. P. 183-203. 
Rigidities in real prices are not sufficient to create rigidities in nominal prices and real effects of nominal shocks. And, by themselves, small frictions in nominal adjustment, such as costs of changing prices, create only small non-neutralities. But this paper shows that substantial nominal rigidity can arise from a combination of real rigidities and small nominal frictions. The paper shows the connection between real and nominal rigidity given the presence of nominal frictions both in general and for two specific sources of real rigidity, one arising from goods market imperfections and the other from labour market imperfections.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Olivier Jean Blanchard NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  No. 7550.
The answer to the question in the title is: A lot. In this essay, I argue that the history of macroeconomics during the 20th century can be divided in three epochs: Pre 1940. A period of exploration, where macroeconomics was not macroeconomics yet, but monetary theory on one side, business cycle theory on the other. A period during which all the right ingredients, and quite a few more, were developed. But also a period where confusion reigned, because of the lack of an integrated framework. From 1940 to 1980. A period of consolidation. A period during which an integrated framework was developed starting with the IS-LM, all the way to dynamic general equilibrium models and used to clarify the role of shocks and propagation mechanisms in fluctuations. But a construction with an Achille's heel, namely too casual a treatment of imperfections, leading to a crisis in the late 1970s. Since 1980. A new period of exploration, focused on the role of imperfections in macroeconomics, from the relevance of nominal price setting, to incompleteness of markets, to asymmetric information, to search and bargaining in decentralized markets. Exploration often feels like confusion. But behind it may be one of the most productive periods of research in macroeconomics.
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Опубликовано на портале: 08-09-2004
Наталья Александровна Гусева Права женщин в России: законодательство и практика. 2002. 
Автором анализируется катастрофическое положение женщины и семьи в обществе. Поводом для рассмотрения данной проблемы послужила подготовка в первом чтении в Государственной думе России законопроекта « О государственных гарантиях равных прав и равных возможностей мужчин и женщин в Российской Федерации ». Необходимость принятия данного закона давно назрела в нашей стране, т. к. в российском обществе специалисты всего мира констатируют гендерную асимметрию. Что это такое, с чем это непонятное для абсолютного большинства граждан явление связано, какие может иметь и какие уже имеет последствия? Гендерная асимметрия - это неравенство в социальных позициях мужчин и женщин. Иными словами, в настоящее время в нашем российском обществе налицо ухудшение положения женщин во многих сферах общественной жизни. Наибольшее неравенство мужчин и женщин отмечается в двух сферах: на рынке труда; в сфере политики и управления. Этим и другим проблемам в области гендерных исследований посвящена данная статья.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Jason G. Cummins, Kevin A. Hassett, Robert Glenn Hubbard Journal of Public Economics. 1996.  Vol. 62. No. 1-2. P. 237-273. 
We use firm-level panel data to explore the extent to which fixed investment responds to tax reforms in 14 OECD countries. Previous studies have often found that investment does not respond to changes in the marginal cost of investment. We identify some of the factors responsible for this finding and employ an estimation procedure that sidesteps the most important of them. In so doing, we find evidence of statistically and economically significant investment responses to tax changes in 12 of the 14 countries.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Olivier Jean Blanchard, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki American Economic Review. 1987.  Vol. 77. No. 4. P. 647-666. 
How important is monopolistic competition to an understanding of the effects of aggregate demand on output? We ask the question at three levels. Can monopolistic competition, by itself, explain why aggregate demand movements affect output? Can it, together with other imperfections, generate effects of aggregate demand in a way that perfect competition cannot? If so, can it give an accurate account of the response of the economy to aggregate demand movements? The answers are no, yes, and yes.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Ricardo J. Caballero, Robert S. Pindyck International Economic Review. 1996.  Vol. 37. No. 3. P. 641-662. 
We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms, total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment. We first use standard dynamic programming methods to determine firms' entry decisions, and we describe the resulting industry equilibrium and its characteristics, emphasizing the effects of different sources of uncertainty. We then show how the conditional distribution of prices can be used as an alternative means of determining and understanding the behavior of firms and the resulting industry equilibrium. Finally, we use four-digit U.S. manufacturing data to examine some implications of the model.
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Economic Theory [учебная программа]
Опубликовано на портале: 17-08-2004
Robert J. Barro, Francesco Caselli
Spring 2003
Курс состоит из двух частей. В первой части рассматриваются вопросы экономического роста и макроэкономической политики. Базовые учебники - Barro R. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study", Barro R., Sala-i-Martin "Economic Growth".
Вторая часть посвящена вопросам открытой экономики. Базовые учебники - Romer "Advanced Macroeconomics"; Obstfeld, Rogoff "Foundations of International Macroeconomics"; Taylor, Woodford "Handbook of Macroeconomics".
Курс читается студентам магистратуры. Требуемый уровень подготовки - макроэкономика промежуточного уровня, математический анализ, эконометрика, анализ временных рядов. На сайте программы можно найти задачи к курсу.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004
Our two related goals in this paper are the following: Firstly and mainly, we want to examine the effects of major changes in modelling strategy and econometric methodology, over the past twenty years, on estimation of firm-level investment equations using panel data. Secondly, we try to assess whether the differences in the estimated investment equations, as between recent years and ten to twenty years go in the French and U.S. Manufacturing industries, are real' and economically meaningful. Thus our paper consists of a series of comparisons: a simple accelerator-profit specification versus one with error correction, traditional between- and within-firm estimation versus GMM estimation, the investment behavior of French firms versus that of U.S. firms, and investment behavior in recent years versus ten to twenty years ago. Although the important econometric advances of the past twenty years have been far from being as successful as we had hoped for, we do find some significant improvement in the specification, estimation and interpretation of firm investment equations; we also fin some real changes in the investment behavior of French and U.S. firms during these twenty years.
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Опубликовано на портале: 27-07-2004
This paper utilizes a unique new dataset of credit card accounts to analyze how people respond to changes in credit supply. The data consist of a panel of thousands of individual credit card accounts from several different card issuers, with associated credit bureau data. We estimate both marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) out of liquidity and interest-rate elasticities. We also evaluate the ability of different models of consumption to rationalize our results, distinguishing the Permanent-Income Hypothesis (PIH), liquidity constraints, precautionary saving, and behavioral models. We find that increases in credit limits generate an immediate and significant rise in debt, counter to the PIH. The average 'MPC out of liquidity' (dDebt/dLimit) ranges between 10%-14%. The MPC is much larger for people starting near their limits, consistent with binding liquidity constraints. However, the MPC is significant even for people starting well below their limit. We show this response is consistent with buffer-stock models of precautionary saving. Nonetheless there are other results that conventional models cannot easily explain, e.g. why so many people are borrowing on their credit cards, and simultaneously holding low yielding assets. Unlike most other studies, we also find strong effects from changes in account-specific interest rates. The long-run elasticity of debt to the interest rate is approximately -1.3. Less than half of this elasticity represents balance-shifting across cards, with most reflecting net changes in total borrowing. The elasticity is larger for decreases in interest rates than for increases, which can explain the widespread use of temporary promotional rates. The elasticity is smaller for people starting near their credit limits, again consistent with liquidity constraints.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-07-2004
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Stewart Eichenbaum American Economic Review. 1992.  No. 382. P. 430-450. 
Hours worked and the return to working are weakly correlated. Traditionally, the ability to account for this fact has been a litmus test for macroeconomic models. Existing real-business-cycle models fail this test dramatically. We modify prototypical real-business-cycle models by allowing government consumption shocks to influence labor-market dynamics. This modification can, in principle, bring the models into closer conformity with the data. Our empirical results indicate that it does.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-07-2004
Larry Jones, Rodolfo Manuelli, Henry Siu NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  No. 7633.
Our purpose in this paper is to present a class of convex endogenous growth models, and to analyze their performance in terms of both growth and business cycle criteria. The models we study have close analogs in the real business cycle literature. In fact, we interpret the exogenous growth rate of productivity as an endogenous growth rate of human capital. This perspective allows us to compare the strengths of both classes of models. In order to highlight the mechanism that gives endogenous growth models the ability to improve upon their exogenous growth relatives, we study models that are symmetric in terms of human and physical capital formation -- our two engines of growth. More precisely, we analyze models in which the technology used to produce human capital is identical to the technologies used to produce consumption and investment goods, and in which the technology shocks in the two sectors are perfectly correlated. We find that endogenous growth models can generate levels of labor volatility close to those observed in the data, as well as positively correlated growth rates of output. We also find that these models outperform a related exogenous growth version in most dimensions.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-07-2004
Milka S. Kirova, Robert S. Lipsey Reviews of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 1998.  Vol. 80. No. 1. P. 3-18. 
The standard measures of nominal capital formation show the United States investing a proportion of GDP much lower than those of other developed countries throughout the last 25 years and falling further behind over time. In contrast, measures we have calculated in real terms across countries and over time indicate that US investment ratios have been rising over time and have been coming closer and closer to those of the other countries. A broader measure of capital formation more consonant with economic concepts shows the United States to have been close to the other countries since 1970 and to have been investing an above average share of total output in the most recent period 1990-1994. Real capital formation per capita and per worker, even conventionally defined, has been consistently between 15 and 25 percent higher than in the other countries and broadly defined real capital formation per capita and per worker has been 30 to 60 percent higher.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-07-2004
Светлана Владимировна Шмыкова Экономические циклы или колебания деловой активности – последовательность периодов роста экономики, сменяющихся периодами замедления или спада экономической активности. Экономические циклы выделяют на основе динамики валового внутреннего продукта (ВВП). При этом другие экономические переменные могут следовать за движением ВВП (проциклические), например, частное потребление и инвестиции, или колебаться в противофазе (контрциклические), например, безработица.

Опубликовано на портале: 29-10-2003
This textbook provides a comprehensive and up to date review of the rapidly expanding business cycle literature. It covers three key strands of the theory which have dominated recent literature in the subject: equilibrium (monetary and real) business cycles, nonlinear business, cycle models and political business cycle theories.
Business Cycles is designed for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students of macroeconomics and monetary theory and policy and academic economists wishing to keep abreast of the substantial recent developments in this field.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2003
Capital Theory and Investment Behavior presents pioneering studies of the cost of capital as a determinant of investment expenditures. The cost of capital summarizes the future consequences of investment essential for current decisions. This concept has become an indispensible tool for studying the dynamics of investment behavior. Both macroeconome tric models and intertemporal general equilibrium models have employed the cost of capital as a determinant of short- and long-term investment expenditures.
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Опубликовано на портале: 30-09-2003
Andrew A. Samwick Empirical Foundations of Household Taxation. 1996.  P. 193-226. 
The precipitous decline in tax sheltered investments after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA) is widely attributed to the passive loss rules. These rules disallowed losses from activities in which the taxpayer did not materially participate as a current deduction against all sources of income except for other passive activities. This paper demonstrates instead that the role of the passive loss limitations was secondary to that of other reforms enacted by TRA, most importantly the repeal of the investment tax credit and the long-term capital gain exclusion. These other reforms not only lowered after-tax rates of return on tax sheltered investments but also eliminated the positive correlation between the investor's marginal tax rate and the investment's after-tax rate of return. As a result, high income taxpayers ceased to be the natural clientele for legitimate tax shelters after TRA. The passive loss rules were more effective in curtailing the use of 'abusive' tax shelters; however, it is shown that a more narrowly focused restriction on seller financing of tax sheltered investments could have accomplished the same goal with much less scope for discouraging productive economic investments.
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