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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 137

Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Andrew B. Abel
This paper develops a tractable stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze the equilibrium equity premium and growth rate of the capital stock in the presence of a defined-benefit Social Security system. If the Social Security Trust Fund increases the share of its portfolio held in risky capital, the equilibrium equity premium falls in the following period and along a constant growth path. This change in the portfolio of the Social Security Trust Fund will increase the growth rate of capital in the following period, and, if a certain sufficient condition is satisfied, will increase the growth rate of the capital stock along a constant growth path. Calibration of the model indicates that it can match the historical average equity premium and the historical average growth rate of the capital stock using plausible values of the preference parameters. In addition, the sufficient condition for the growth rate of the capital stock to increase along a constant growth path is satisfied. Quantitatively, the effects on the riskless interest rate and the growth rate of capital are small.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Katsunori Watanabe, Takayuki Watanabe, Tsutomu Watanabe
This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that more than 80 per cent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

A Debt Puzzle [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
David Laibson, Jeremy Tobacman, Andrea Repetto
Over 60% of US households with credit cards are currently borrowing -- i.e., paying interest -- on those cards. We attempt to reconcile the high rate of credit card borrowing with observed levels of life cycle wealth accumulation. We simulate a lifecycle model with five properties that create demand for credit card borrowing. First, the calibrated labor income path slopes upward early in life. Second, income has transitory shocks. Third, consumers invest actively in an illiquid asset, which is sufficiently illiquid that it can not be used to smooth transitory income shocks. Fourth, consumers may declare bankruptcy, reducing the effective cost of credit card borrowing. Fifth, households have relatively more dependents early in the life-cycle. Our calibrated model predicts that 20% of the population will borrow on their credit card at any point in time, far less than the observed rate of over 60%. We identify a resolution to this puzzle: hyperbolic time preferences. Simulated hyperbolic consumers borrow actively in the revolving credit card market and accumulate relatively large stocks of illiquid wealth, matching observed data.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Alberto Alesina, Roberto Perotti
This paper studies how the composition of fiscal adjustments influences their likelihood of success, defined as a long lasting deficit reduction, and their macroeconomic consequences. We find that fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on spending cuts on transfers and the government wage bill have a better chance of being successful and are expansionary. On the contrary fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend not to last and are contractionary. We discuss alternate explanations for these findings by studying both a full sample of OECD countries and by focusing on three case studies: Denmark, Ireland and Italy.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Обновлено: 09-12-2010

В статье Розмаинского И.В. рассматривается теория Делли Гатти - Галлегати - Гардини, которая, по его мнению, внесла большой вклад в понимание закономерностей деловых циклов в рыночном хозяйстве и представляет собой удачное развитие посткейнсианского подхода (и, в особенности, подхода Мински) к этому разделу экономического анализа.

Macroeconomics 1 [учебная программа]
Опубликовано на портале: 04-07-2003
Marios Angeletos
Spring 2002
Курс скорее следует отнести к макроэкономике продвинутого уровня, хотя читается он студентам бакалавриата MIT второго года обучения. Базового учебника нет, но большинство читаемых тем есть в курсе лекций Blanchard O. and Fisher S. Lectures on Macroeconomics, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1989.
Материал очень насыщен математическими моделями, поэтому слушатели должны хорошо владеть математическим аппаратом. Неоходимо также знать микроэкономический анализ.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит прикрепленный файл

Обновлено: 01-04-2009

Статистическая база данных Национального научного фонда США (National Science Foundation), содержащая более 2500 таблиц c данными о расходах на НИОКР в промышленности США, произведенных государством и частными корпорациями за период с 1953 г. по настоящее время. База составляется по итогам ежегодного Survey of Industrial Research and Development.

Обновлено: 01-04-2009

Инвестиционный

Bank of England - Working Paper Series [интернет ресурс]
Обновлено: 09-12-2010

Публикации Центрального банка Великобритании. Представлены материалы экономических исследований: аналитические обзоры и статьи по различным аспектам развития экономики Великобритании и мировой экономики (денежному регулированию, инвестициям, инфляции, рынку труда). Сайт организован достаточно удобно, материалы можно сортировать по дате публикации и тематике. Все статьи аннотированы. Тексты статей после 1997 г. представлены полностью в формате pdf.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-02-2003
Working Papers Центрального Банка Чили. На сайте представлены публикации материалов экономических исследований, проведенных персоналом Центрального банка Чили или третьими лицами при спонсорской поддержке Центрального банка. Большинство публикаций - это аналитические обзоры и научные статьи
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него

Опубликовано на портале: 30-01-2003
Victor Zarnowitz
Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.
With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 29-01-2003
Ред.: Thomas F. Cooley
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995
Among the most revolutionary and productive areas of economic research over the last two decades, modern business cycle theory is finally made accessible to students and professionals in this rigorous, unified, introductory volume. This theory starts with the view that growth and fluctuations are not distinct phenomena to be studied separately--and that business cycles result from shocks (such as the availability of new technologies), which regularly affect most economies. The unifying theme of this book is the use of the neoclassical growth framework to study the economic fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Presenting recent advances in dynamic economic theory and computational methods--with emphasis on the construction of equilibrium paths for simple artificial economies--leading experts orient readers in the quantitative study of aggregate fluctuations and apply its concepts to key issues in macroeconomics and business cycle theory.
This volume covers such issues as the aggregate labor market, the role of the household sector, the role of money, the behavior of asset markets, non-Walrasian economies, monopolistically competitive economies, international business cycles, and the design of economic policies. The contributors are David Backus, V. V. Chari, Lawrence Christiano, Thomas F. Cooley, Jean-Pierre Danthine, John Donaldson, Jeremy Greenwood, Gary D. Hansen, Patrick Kehoe, Finn Kydland, Edward C. Prescott, Richard Rogerson, Julio Rotemberg, Geert Rouwenhorst, Josй-Vнctor Rнos-Rull, Michael Woodford, and Randall Wright.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 29-01-2003
Axel Leijonhufvud
Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2001
Since the inflationary 1970s, theoretical work on monetary policy has concentrated almost exclusively on price-level stabilization and the avoidance of nominal shocks. In the aftermath of the collapse of financial bubbles in various parts of the world, the accomplishments and limitations of this dominant approach are debated in this volume edited by Axel Leijonhufvud, with contributions by a number of noted monetary economists, including Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 29-01-2003
Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings.
Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 25-01-2003
Victor Zarnowitz
Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.
With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 25-01-2003
Lutz G. Arnold
New York: Oxford University Press, 2002
Business cycle theory is a broad and disparate field. Different schools of thought offer alternative explanations for cycles, often using different mathematical methods. This book provides a compact exposition of the main theories since Keynes -- Keynesian economics, monetarism, new classical economics, the real business cycles theory, and new Keynesian economics -- using a unifying mathematical approach.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 08-12-2002
Andrew B. Abel, Janice C. Eberly American Economic Review. 1994.  Vol. 84 . No. 1. P. 1369-1384. 
This paper extends the theory of investment under uncertainty to incorporate fixed costs of investment, a wedge between the purchase price and sale price of capital, and potential irreversibility of investment. In this extended framework, investment is a non-decreasing function of q, the shadow price of installed capital. There are potentially three investment regimes, which depend on the value of q relative to two critical values. For values of q above the upper critical value, investment is positive and is an increasing function of q, as is standard in the theory branch of the adjustment cost literature. For intermediate values of q, between two critical values, investment is zero. Although this regime features prominently in the irreversibility literature, it is largely ignored in the adjustment cost literature. Finally, if q is below the lower critical value, gross investment is negative, a possibility that is ruled out by assumption in the irreversibility of literature. In general, however, the shadow price q is not directly observable, so we present two examples relating q to observable varieties.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию