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Экономическая статистика – это глаза и уши аналитика, это инструмент функциональной диагностики, необходимый для принятия адекватных управленческих и политических решений, это - зеркало, в котором отражается живой социально-экономический организм: иногда - в целом, иногда - его отдельные составляющие элементы... (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 495

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Edward Higgs Economic History Review, New Series. 1995.  Vol. 48. No. 4. P. 700-716. 
This article discusses the difficulties in using nineteenth-century census data relating to occupations for the analysis of sectoral labour inputs. The under-recording of seasonal and women's work in the census shifts in occupational classifications, and the systematic removal from the occupied population of women workers is revealed. Reworking of the census figures suggests the possible need to increase the size ofthe agricultural workforce by between 30 and 40 per cent in the mid-Victorian period. A programme of work is suggested to establish a standardized occupational classification system for census data and to estimate labour inputs from farms.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Larry S. Corder, Kenneth G. Manton Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1991.  Vol. 86. No. 414. P. 513-525. 
The rapid growth of the U.S. elderly (age 65+) and oldest-old (age 85+) populations, combined with their high per capita acute health and long-term care (LTC) service needs, raises concerns about existing health care payment systems. Adapting and designing new types of health insurance and existing health policies require accurate data on the elderly's health and functional characteristics. Strengths and weaknesses of five national health surveys in providing such data are evaluated. Methodological issues arising in surveying elderly populations and analyzing data from those surveys are discussed, with implications for designing private LTC insurance and for reducing future LTC service burden.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
William Jack Baumol, Edward N. Wolff Journal of Political Economy. 1984.  Vol. 92. No. 6. P. 1017-1034. 
In the literature, comparisons between absolute levels of productivity in different industries occur frequently. This paper explores the meaning and possible significance of such measures. Prices must be used to permit the required comparison of the outputs of different industries. It is shown that base-year weights produce a valid measure of productivity growth but not of absolute productivity level. Current price weights do yield a valid index of absolute productivity but one that tends to be equal for all industries because of the general equilibrium mechanism that reallocates resources from low-productivity to high-productivity industries.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Irwin L. Collier Economica, New Series. 1989.  Vol. 56. No. 221. P. 109-120. 
When households are subject to quantity constraints, conventional measures of real consumption and purchasing power parity for cross-national comparisons suffer from a new type of index number problem. Additional information on preferences taken from a demand system estimated for a similar economy without quantity constraints can be employed to calculate distance function and money-metric indexes of relative real consumption and corresponding measures of purchasing power parity. The procedure is illustrated in a comparison of East and West German consumer prices and consumption expenditures for 1977.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Joan R. Rodgers, John L. Rodgers Journal of Human Resources. 1993.  Vol. 28. No. 1. P. 25-54. 
This paper proposes a method of measuring chronic and transitory poverty using an axiomatically sound, additively decomposable index of aggregate poverty. Our approach is contrasted with alternative methods of measuring poverty persistence. We use our method to measure chronic and transitory poverty in the United States during the 1980s and late 1970s and find that chronic poverty is a more serious problem than previously thought. Between the late 1970s and mid 1980s poverty not only increased, it became more chronic and less transitory in nature. This is true for the population as a whole and for some, but not all, of the subpopulations we considered. The latter were defined according to race, type of social unit, and educational qualifications of the head of the social unit. All empirical analyses are based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Lars Osberg, Kuan Xu Journal of Human Resources. 2000.  Vol. 35. No. 1. P. 51-81. 
This paper proposes an alternative formulation for the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon (SST) index of poverty intensity that is appropriate for survey data with sampling weights. It also decomposes the SST index into the poverty rate, the average poverty gap ratio among the poor, and the overall Gini index of poverty gap ratios. To account for sampling variation in estimates of poverty intensity, this paper uses the bootstrap method to compute confidence intervals and presents international comparisons using Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) data from the 1970s to the 1990s. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses indicate that the percentage change in poverty intensity can be approximated by the sum of percentage changes in the poverty rate and average poverty gap ratio, since changes in the overall Gini index of poverty gap ratios are negligible. In the early 1970s poverty intensity in Canada and the United States was almost indistinguishable, but in the 1970s Canadian poverty intensity decreased. Large increases in poverty intensity occurred in the 1980s in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Sweden.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Amartya Sen Econometrica. 1976.  Vol. 44. No. 2. P. 219-231. 
The primary aim of this paper is to propose a new measure of poverty, which should avoid some of the shortcomings of the measures currently in use. An axiomatic approach is used to derive the measure. The conception of welfare in the axiom set is ordinal. The information requirement for the new measure is quite limited, permitting practical use.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Shelley A. Phipps Journal of Human Resources. 1993.  Vol. 28. No. 1. P. 162-184. 
This paper uses microdata from the 1986 Statistics Canada Family Expenditure Survey to demonstrate that inequality-sensitive poverty measures such as the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (1984) index are as sensitive to the equivalence scale embodied in the poverty line as the more frequently used head count and poverty gap measures. Indices of the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke variety are useful, however, for revealing demographic subgroups experiencing extreme deprivation, information not provided by the more standard poverty measures. The paper also demonstrates that our understanding of the relative poverty experiences of important demographic subgroups such as children and the elderly can be influenced by our choice of equivalence scale.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
James Banks, Paul Johnson The Economic Journal. 1994.  Vol. 104. No. 425. P. 883-890. 
Recent studies have assessed the impact of choice of equivalence scale on economists' measurement of the equivalent income distribution. One particular study (Coulter, Cowell and Jenkins (1992)) has found that equivalence scales used in the UK official statistics `provide lower estimates of the extent of inequality and poverty than do other scales'. In this paper we demonstrate that these kind of results are dependent on the particular year of data and equivalence scale specification that is used and are not properties intrinsic to particular methodologies. Results are also not robust to the use of more recent UK microeconomic data.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Anne Harrop, Ian Plewis Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1995.  Vol. 158. No. 1. P. 91-106. 
Secondary analysis of General Household Survey and Labour Force Survey data shows how the structure of families in Great Britain has changed over the last 20 years. Dependent children are now less likely to be living in a couple family and more likely to be living with a lone mother who is either single or divorced. Families in simple households with just two generations have become more common over time. Lone mothers are now more likely to be living in simple households. The paper also considers how the number and ages of dependent children are associated with family and household type. Log-linear models are used both to smooth the data and to predict family structure in the year 2000. Gaps in our knowledge about current family structures are discussed together with implications of the findings for social policy.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
R. L. Plackett Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984.  Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 140-150. 
The progress of the Royal Statistical Society is recorded from 1934 to 1984. After a sketch of the statistical background before 1945, subsequent developments are divided into sections: professional matters, meetings, publications, public policy, management, organization. Finally, a retrospective view is taken over the whole period.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
David Freedman, Kenneth W. Wachter Statistical Science. 1994.  Vol. 9. No. 4 . P. 476-485. 
Current techniques for census adjustment involve the "synthetic assumption" that undercount rates are constant within "post-strata" across geographical areas. A poststratum is a subgroup of people with given demographic characteristics; poststrata are chosen to minimize heterogeneity in undercount rates. This paper will use 1990 census data to assess the synthetic assumption. We find that heterogeneity within poststrata is quite large, with a corresponding impact on local undercount rates estimated by the synthetic method. Thus, any comparison of error rates between the census and adjusted counts should take heterogeneity into account.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
David J. Hand Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994.  Vol. 157. No. 3. P. 317-356. 
Too much current statistical work takes a superficial view of the client's research question, adopting techniques which have a solid history, a sound mathematical basis or readily available software, but without considering in depth whether the questions being answered are in fact those which should be asked. Examples, some familiar and others less so, are given to illustrate this assertion. It is clear that establishing the mapping from the client's domain to a statistical question is one of the most difficult parts of a statistical analysis. It is a part in which the responsibility is shared by both client and statistician. A plea is made for more research effort to go in this direction and some suggestions are made for ways to tackle the problem.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Peter G. Moore Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984.  Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 268-277. 
The activities of statisticians working in industry or commerce are examined under three headings: information handling, experimental statistics and risk management. Some current needs are highlighted and the dilemma between the provision of information and recommendations for decision explored.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Ред.: Peter G. Moore Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1993.  Vol. 154. No. 1. P. 23-44. 
The Working Party was set up by the Royal Statistical Society because of widespread criticism of UK official statistics collected and reported by the Government Statistical Service. That Service has to be of fine quality, earning and enjoying public confidence and providing accurate, timely and cost-effective data both for governmental and for public use. The Working Party found no evidence of a lack of integrity among government statisticians. However, the organizational and operational framework of the Government Statistical Service is regarded as inadequate. Accordingly four important sets of recommendations are made. Their acceptance is fundamental for the achievement of a high quality of service linked to full public confidence in official statistics.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Juha M. Alho Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997.  Vol. 160. No. 1. P. 71-85. 
Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world population will exceed the high scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations (UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future population.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
J. C. Gower Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1988.  Vol. 151. No. 1. P. 179-200. 
The relationship between statistics and agricultural research is reviewed. From the end of the 18th century until the present, three main periods are identified: from the beginnings of scientific agriculture in the Age of Improvement until the first world war, which saw the use of field experiments to give information on plant nutrition and which lead to a recognition of the need to handle variability, the interwar years, dominated by R. A. Fisher, which saw the founding of experimental design as a statistical discipline, the clearer understanding of the different contributions to variability, the application of the new ideas to new areas associated with agriculture (e.g. bioassay and multivariate analysis) and outside agriculture (e.g. medicine and industry) and the development of mathematical statistics, and the post-war years, initially concerned with an elaboration and unification of earlier ideas but, more recently, with new methodology encouraged in response to new directions in agricultural research (e.g. molecular biology, modelling), new forms of measurement provided by novel instrumentation, and by computing developments (agricultural statisticians have been prominent in developing statistical software). Over the 200 years covered by the review, agricultural production of all kinds has dramatically increased and it is held that statistics has played its part, usually indirectly, by encouraging the efficient use of limited research resources and, occasionally, by discouraging unjustified research. Increased production is currently less of a priority but many agricultural research problems remain to which statisticians can and should contribute (e.g. food quality, efficiency, environmental impact, stability of production).
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