**Всего публикаций в данном разделе:**495

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*Edward Higgs*Economic History Review, New Series. 1995. Vol. 48. No. 4. P. 700-716.

This article discusses the difficulties in using nineteenth-century census data relating
to occupations for the analysis of sectoral labour inputs. The under-recording of
seasonal and women's work in the census shifts in occupational classifications, and
the systematic removal from the occupied population of women workers is revealed.
Reworking of the census figures suggests the possible need to increase the size ofthe
agricultural workforce by between 30 and 40 per cent in the mid-Victorian period.
A programme of work is suggested to establish a standardized occupational classification
system for census data and to estimate labour inputs from farms.

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*Larry S. Corder*,

*Kenneth G. Manton*Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1991. Vol. 86. No. 414. P. 513-525.

The rapid growth of the U.S. elderly (age 65+) and oldest-old (age 85+) populations,
combined with their high per capita acute health and long-term care (LTC) service
needs, raises concerns about existing health care payment systems. Adapting and designing
new types of health insurance and existing health policies require accurate data
on the elderly's health and functional characteristics. Strengths and weaknesses
of five national health surveys in providing such data are evaluated. Methodological
issues arising in surveying elderly populations and analyzing data from those surveys
are discussed, with implications for designing private LTC insurance and for reducing
future LTC service burden.

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*William Jack Baumol*,

*Edward N. Wolff*Journal of Political Economy. 1984. Vol. 92. No. 6. P. 1017-1034.

In the literature, comparisons between absolute levels of productivity in different
industries occur frequently. This paper explores the meaning and possible significance
of such measures. Prices must be used to permit the required comparison of the outputs
of different industries. It is shown that base-year weights produce a valid measure
of productivity growth but not of absolute productivity level. Current price weights
do yield a valid index of absolute productivity but one that tends to be equal for
all industries because of the general equilibrium mechanism that reallocates resources
from low-productivity to high-productivity industries.

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*Irwin L. Collier*Economica, New Series. 1989. Vol. 56. No. 221. P. 109-120.

When households are subject to quantity constraints, conventional measures of real
consumption and purchasing power parity for cross-national comparisons suffer from
a new type of index number problem. Additional information on preferences taken from
a demand system estimated for a similar economy without quantity constraints can
be employed to calculate distance function and money-metric indexes of relative real
consumption and corresponding measures of purchasing power parity. The procedure
is illustrated in a comparison of East and West German consumer prices and consumption
expenditures for 1977.

**Chronic Poverty in the United States**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*Joan R. Rodgers*,

*John L. Rodgers*Journal of Human Resources. 1993. Vol. 28. No. 1. P. 25-54.

This paper proposes a method of measuring chronic and transitory poverty using an
axiomatically sound, additively decomposable index of aggregate poverty. Our approach
is contrasted with alternative methods of measuring poverty persistence. We use our
method to measure chronic and transitory poverty in the United States during the
1980s and late 1970s and find that chronic poverty is a more serious problem than
previously thought. Between the late 1970s and mid 1980s poverty not only increased,
it became more chronic and less transitory in nature. This is true for the population
as a whole and for some, but not all, of the subpopulations we considered. The latter
were defined according to race, type of social unit, and educational qualifications
of the head of the social unit. All empirical analyses are based on data from the
Panel Study of Income Dynamics.

**International Comparisons of Poverty Intensity: Index Decomposition and Bootstrap Inference**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*Lars Osberg*,

*Kuan Xu*Journal of Human Resources. 2000. Vol. 35. No. 1. P. 51-81.

This paper proposes an alternative formulation for the Sen-Shorrocks-Thon (SST) index
of poverty intensity that is appropriate for survey data with sampling weights. It
also decomposes the SST index into the poverty rate, the average poverty gap ratio
among the poor, and the overall Gini index of poverty gap ratios. To account for
sampling variation in estimates of poverty intensity, this paper uses the bootstrap
method to compute confidence intervals and presents international comparisons using
Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) data from the 1970s to the 1990s. Cross-sectional and
longitudinal analyses indicate that the percentage change in poverty intensity can
be approximated by the sum of percentage changes in the poverty rate and average
poverty gap ratio, since changes in the overall Gini index of poverty gap ratios
are negligible. In the early 1970s poverty intensity in Canada and the United States
was almost indistinguishable, but in the 1970s Canadian poverty intensity decreased.
Large increases in poverty intensity occurred in the 1980s in the United States,
the United Kingdom, and Sweden.

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*Amartya Sen*Econometrica. 1976. Vol. 44. No. 2. P. 219-231.

The primary aim of this paper is to propose a new measure of poverty, which should
avoid some of the shortcomings of the measures currently in use. An axiomatic approach
is used to derive the measure. The conception of welfare in the axiom set is ordinal.
The information requirement for the new measure is quite limited, permitting practical
use.

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*Shelley A. Phipps*Journal of Human Resources. 1993. Vol. 28. No. 1. P. 162-184.

This paper uses microdata from the 1986 Statistics Canada Family Expenditure Survey
to demonstrate that inequality-sensitive poverty measures such as the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke
(1984) index are as sensitive to the equivalence scale embodied in the poverty line
as the more frequently used head count and poverty gap measures. Indices of the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke
variety are useful, however, for revealing demographic subgroups experiencing extreme
deprivation, information not provided by the more standard poverty measures. The
paper also demonstrates that our understanding of the relative poverty experiences
of important demographic subgroups such as children and the elderly can be influenced
by our choice of equivalence scale.

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004

*James Banks*,

*Paul Johnson*The Economic Journal. 1994. Vol. 104. No. 425. P. 883-890.

Recent studies have assessed the impact of choice of equivalence scale on economists'
measurement of the equivalent income distribution. One particular study (Coulter,
Cowell and Jenkins (1992)) has found that equivalence scales used in the UK official
statistics `provide lower estimates of the extent of inequality and poverty than
do other scales'. In this paper we demonstrate that these kind of results are dependent
on the particular year of data and equivalence scale specification that is used and
are not properties intrinsic to particular methodologies. Results are also not robust
to the use of more recent UK microeconomic data.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*Anne Harrop*,

*Ian Plewis*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1995. Vol. 158. No. 1. P. 91-106.

Secondary analysis of General Household Survey and Labour Force Survey data shows
how the structure of families in Great Britain has changed over the last 20 years.
Dependent children are now less likely to be living in a couple family and more likely
to be living with a lone mother who is either single or divorced. Families in simple
households with just two generations have become more common over time. Lone mothers
are now more likely to be living in simple households. The paper also considers how
the number and ages of dependent children are associated with family and household
type. Log-linear models are used both to smooth the data and to predict family structure
in the year 2000. Gaps in our knowledge about current family structures are discussed
together with implications of the findings for social policy.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*R. L. Plackett*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984. Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 140-150.

The progress of the Royal Statistical Society is recorded from 1934 to 1984. After
a sketch of the statistical background before 1945, subsequent developments are divided
into sections: professional matters, meetings, publications, public policy, management,
organization. Finally, a retrospective view is taken over the whole period.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*David Freedman*,

*Kenneth W. Wachter*Statistical Science. 1994. Vol. 9. No. 4 . P. 476-485.

Current techniques for census adjustment involve the "synthetic assumption" that
undercount rates are constant within "post-strata" across geographical areas. A poststratum
is a subgroup of people with given demographic characteristics; poststrata are chosen
to minimize heterogeneity in undercount rates. This paper will use 1990 census data
to assess the synthetic assumption. We find that heterogeneity within poststrata
is quite large, with a corresponding impact on local undercount rates estimated by
the synthetic method. Thus, any comparison of error rates between the census and
adjusted counts should take heterogeneity into account.

**Deconstructing Statistical Questions**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*David J. Hand*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994. Vol. 157. No. 3. P. 317-356.

Too much current statistical work takes a superficial view of the client's research
question, adopting techniques which have a solid history, a sound mathematical basis
or readily available software, but without considering in depth whether the questions
being answered are in fact those which should be asked. Examples, some familiar and
others less so, are given to illustrate this assertion. It is clear that establishing
the mapping from the client's domain to a statistical question is one of the most
difficult parts of a statistical analysis. It is a part in which the responsibility
is shared by both client and statistician. A plea is made for more research effort
to go in this direction and some suggestions are made for ways to tackle the problem.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*Peter G. Moore*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984. Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 268-277.

The activities of statisticians working in industry or commerce are examined under
three headings: information handling, experimental statistics and risk management.
Some current needs are highlighted and the dilemma between the provision of information
and recommendations for decision explored.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

**Ред.:**

*Peter G. Moore*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1993. Vol. 154. No. 1. P. 23-44.

The Working Party was set up by the Royal Statistical Society because of widespread
criticism of UK official statistics collected and reported by the Government Statistical
Service. That Service has to be of fine quality, earning and enjoying public confidence
and providing accurate, timely and cost-effective data both for governmental and
for public use. The Working Party found no evidence of a lack of integrity among
government statisticians. However, the organizational and operational framework of
the Government Statistical Service is regarded as inadequate. Accordingly four important
sets of recommendations are made. Their acceptance is fundamental for the achievement
of a high quality of service linked to full public confidence in official statistics.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*Juha M. Alho*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997. Vol. 160. No. 1. P. 71-85.

Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made
50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology used or in the arguments
used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous
forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that
they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how
simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall
predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world
population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find
that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030
will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world
population will exceed the high scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly,
the probability is only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations
(UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider
the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member
states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future
population.

**Statistics and Agriculture**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*J. C. Gower*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1988. Vol. 151. No. 1. P. 179-200.

The relationship between statistics and agricultural research is reviewed. From the
end of the 18th century until the present, three main periods are identified:
from the beginnings of scientific agriculture in the Age of Improvement until the
first world war, which saw the use of field experiments to give information on plant
nutrition and which lead to a recognition of the need to handle variability,
the interwar years, dominated by R. A. Fisher, which saw the founding of experimental
design as a statistical discipline, the clearer understanding of the different contributions
to variability, the application of the new ideas to new areas associated with agriculture
(e.g. bioassay and multivariate analysis) and outside agriculture (e.g. medicine
and industry) and the development of mathematical statistics, and the post-war
years, initially concerned with an elaboration and unification of earlier ideas but,
more recently, with new methodology encouraged in response to new directions in agricultural
research (e.g. molecular biology, modelling), new forms of measurement provided by
novel instrumentation, and by computing developments (agricultural statisticians
have been prominent in developing statistical software). Over the 200 years covered
by the review, agricultural production of all kinds has dramatically increased and
it is held that statistics has played its part, usually indirectly, by encouraging
the efficient use of limited research resources and, occasionally, by discouraging
unjustified research. Increased production is currently less of a priority but many
agricultural research problems remain to which statisticians can and should contribute
(e.g. food quality, efficiency, environmental impact, stability of production).

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