A Just-Pope model was developed to assess tillage, nitrogen, weather, and pest effects
on risk for cotton grown after alternative winter cover crops. Yield risk for cotton
after hairy vetch was less than for cotton with no winter cover when no nitrogen
fertilizer was used to supplement the vetch nitrogen. However, because cotton after
vetch has a higher production cost, farmers growing conventionally tilled cotton
may be slow to adopt because risk-return tradeoffs may be unacceptable under risk
neutrality and risk aversion. For risk-averse farmers who have already adopted no
tillage, cotton grown after hairy vetch is risk efficient.