Balanced Estimates of National Accounts when Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The UK, 1920-38

It is frequently argued that changes in economic variables are measured more reliably than their levels. This may happen if measurement errors are autocorrelated. Autocorrelation should be taken into account in the least squares balancing of national accounts. Formulae are presented for the error structure which is likely to arise from extrapolation away from or interpolation between bench-mark observations. Balanced estimates are presented for the UK national accounts, 1920-38, taking into account the autocorrelation likely to have been generated in data construction.

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