A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products
Опубликовано на портале: 16-02-2005
Management Science.
1987.
Vol. 33.
No. 9.
P. 1069-1086.
Тематический раздел:
This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology
products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over
time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore,
successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior
is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (1969)
diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution.
We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over
part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.
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