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A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products

Опубликовано на портале: 16-02-2005
Management Science. 1987.  Vol. 33. No. 9. P. 1069-1086. 
Тематический раздел:
This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (1969) diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.

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