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The Econometric Approach to Business-Cycle Analysis Reconsidered

Опубликовано на портале: 13-04-2004
Journal of Macroeconomics. 1970.  Vol. 6. No. 3. P. 347-356. 
Тематический раздел:
An econometric analysis is undertaken of the model developed by Blatt (1978). An important point made by Blatt was that the standard statistical methods used by economists would have led to egregious errors in inference - in particular, estimating a stable linear relationship in a world generated by an unstable nonlinear model. It is shown that the application of specification error tests pioneered by Ramsey (1970, 1974, 1976) leads to immediate and overwhelming rejection of the incorrect model. The major policy conclusion is that empirical economists must learn to test their models before trying to make inferences. Although specification error tests do not solve all inferential difficulties, they do indicate that such a model may be misspecified.
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