Are Windfalls a Curse? A Non-Representative Agent Model of the Current Account and Fiscal Policy
Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Journal of International Economics.
1998.
Vol. 44.
P. 83-112.
Тематические разделы:
In several countries temporary terms of trade improvements have led to a deterioration
of the current account. Furthermore, many of these countries failed to attain greater
post-boom growth rates. The point we make is that the structure of the fiscal process
is critical in determining outcomes. If fiscal control is unitary, then the consumption-smoothing
effect is operative, and representative-agent models of the current account have
predictive power. However, if control is divided among several fiscal claimants,
a voracity effect appears which counteracts the consumption-smoothing effect, leading
to a deterioration of the current account in response to a positive shock. We model
the interaction among fiscal claimants as a dynamic game, and show that in equilibrium
aggregate appropriation increases more than the windfall itself. This results in
a deterioration of the current account. We also show that all the windfall is dissipated,
with the country experiencing no increase in its growth rate. Lastly, we analyze
the experiences of seven countries which have enjoyed large windfalls.
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См. также:
[Книга]
[Интернет-ресурс]
IMF, Working Paper.
2006.
No. 06/219.
[Статья]
[Учебная программа]
[Учебная программа]