A manager tries to put together the various resources under his control into an activity
that achieves his objectives. A model of his operation can assist him but probably
will not unless it meets certain requirements. A model that is to be used by a manager
should be simple, robust, easy to control, adaptive, as complete as possible, and
easy to communicate with. By simple is meant easy to understand; by robust, hard
to get absurd answers from; by easy to control, that the user knows what input data
would be required to produce desired output answers; adaptive means that the model
can be adjusted as new information is acquired; completeness implies that important
phenomena will be included even if they require judgmental estimates of their effect;
and, finally, easy to communicate with means that the manager can quickly and easily
change inputs and obtain and understand the outputs. Such a model consists of a set
of numerical procedures for processing data and judgments to assist managerial decision
making and so will be called a decision calculus. An example from marketing is described.
It is an on-line model for use by product managers on advertising budgeting questions.
The model is currently in trial use by several product managers.
Материалы статьи используются в книге "Capital Budgeting Decision,
Analysis of Investment Projects" (Bierman Harold Jr., Smidt Seymour)