This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending
differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated
tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such
as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing
of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes
is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that
more than 80 per cent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between
temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their
implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation
that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule.
Cтатья представлена в сборнике NBER Working Paper. Полный текст представлен на странице, посвященной этой статье,
в формате *.pdf.