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Does Unemployment Cause Future Unemployment? Definitions, Questions and Answers from a Continuous Time Model of Heterogeneity and State Dependence.

Опубликовано на портале: 08-06-2007
Economica. 1980.  Vol. 47. No. 187. P. 247-83. 
Тематические разделы:
Recent research demonstrates that, the greater the number of previous spells of unemployment and the longer their duration, the more likely is the event that an individual will be unemployed at a point in time. Two explanations have been advanced to interpret this finding. The first is rooted in economic theory; the second is based solely on statistical considerations.

Under the first explanation, past unemployment (including previous time spent in a current unemployment spell) alters preferences, prices or constraints that determine, in part, future unemployment. For example, unemployment may lead to a loss of work experience, which will alter future prospects of employability. As another example, if workers are heterogeneous in unobserved components of ability, firms may use unemployment records in their hiring decisions if the knowledge that a worker has been unemployed is useful in sorting out the worker's position in the population distribution of heterogeneity and if firms place sufficient value on such information in making worker hiring and investment decisions. In both cases, prior unemployment experience has a genuine behavioral effect in the sense that an otherwise identical individual who did not experience unemployment would behave differently in the future than an individual who experienced unemployment. Structural relationships of this sort give rise to true state dependence as defined in this paper. This paper presents statistical methods for testing for the presence of true state dependence. Our methods are based on extensions of existing models for continuous time discrete state Markov processes. In this paper we develop a new model with general forms of state dependence. With this model it is possible to isolate four main types of structural state dependence.

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См. также:
Andrew Chesher, Margaret Irish
Journal of Econometrics. 1987.  Vol. 34. No. 1-2. P. 33-62.