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Modelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized Arch Model

Опубликовано на портале: 01-07-2004
Review of Economics and Statistics. 1990.  Vol. 72. No. 3. P. 498-506. 
A multivariate time series model with time varying conditional variances and covariances but with constant conditional correlations is proposed. In a multivariate regression framework, the model is readily interpreted as an extension of the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model allowing for heteroskedasticity. Each of the conditional variances are parameterized as a univariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process. The descriptive validity of the model is illustrated for a set of 5 nominal European-US dollar exchange rates following the inception of the European Monetary System (EMS). EMS results are compared to estimates obtained for the same model using data over the pre-EMS period, July 1973 to March 1979. When compared to the pre-EMS free float period, the comovements between the currencies are found to be significantly higher over the later period.

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Paul D. Mizen, Mervyn K. Lewis
Claudio A. Paiva
IMF Working Paper Series. 2003.  No. 03/140 .
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