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Trading Volume, Price Autocorrelation and Volatility under Proportional Transaction Costs

Опубликовано на портале: 01-11-2007
SSRN Working Papers. 2006. 
We develop a dynamic model in which traders have differential information about the true value of the risky asset and trade the risky asset with proportional transaction costs. We show that without additional assumption, trading volume can not totally remove the noise in the pricing equation. However, because trading volume increases in the absolute value of noisy per capita supply change, it provides useful information on the asset fundamental value which cannot be inferred from the equilibrium price.

We further investigate the relation between trading volume, price autocorrelation, return volatility and proportional transaction costs. Firstly, trading volume decreases in proportional transaction costs and the influence of proportional transaction costs decreases at the margin. Secondly, price autocorrelation can be generated by proportional transaction costs: under no transaction costs, the equilibrium prices at date 1 and 2 are not correlated; however under proportional transaction costs, they are correlated - the higher (lower) the equilibrium price at date 1, the lower (higher) the equilibrium price at date 2. Thirdly, we show that return volatility may be increasing in proportional transaction costs, which is contrary to Stiglitz 1989, Summers & Summers 1989’s reasoning but is consistent with Umlauf 1993 and Jones & Seguin 1997’s empirical results

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