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Central Bank Learning, Terms of Trade Shocks and Currency Risk: Should Only Inflation Matter for Monetary Policy?

Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2007
Journal of Intrernational Money and Finance. 2007.  Vol. 26. No. 6. P. 865-886. 
This paper examines the role of interest rate policy in a small open economy, subject to terms of trade shocks and time-varying currency risks. The private sector makes optimal decisions in an intertemporal, non-linear setting with rational, forward-looking expectations. In contrast, the monetary authority chooses an optimal interest rate reaction function, given a loss function that is conditional on the state of the economy and given its “least squares learning” about the evolution of inflation and exchange-rate depreciation. The simulation results of the effects of different policy scenarios on welfare show that, on balance, the preferred stance should be strict inflation targeting.

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