Adaptive Learning, Forecast-Based Instrument Rules and Monetary Policy
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2007
Journal of Monetary Economics.
2006.
Vol. 53.
No. 3.
P. 507-535.
Тематический раздел:
This paper argues that recently popular forecast-based instrument rules for monetary
policy may fail to stabilize economic fluctuations. In a New Keynesian model of output
gap and inflation determination in which private agents face multi-period decision
problems, but have non-rational expectations and learn over time, if the monetary
authority adopts a forecast-based instrument rule and responds to observed private
forecasts then this class of policies frequently induce divergent learning dynamics.
A central bank that correctly understands private behavior can mitigate such instability
by responding to the determinants of private forecasts. This suggests gathering information
on the determinants of expectations to be useful
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Ключевые слова
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