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Growth. In 2 vol. Vol.1. Econometric General Equilibrium Modeling

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1998, Vol. 1, 450 с.
Econometric General Equilibrium Modeling presents an econometric approach to general equilibrium modeling of the impact of economic policies. Earlier approaches were based on the "calibration" of general equilibrium models to a single data point. The obvious disadvantage of calibration is that it requires highly restrictive assumptions about technology and preferences, such as fixed input-output coefficients. These assumptions are contradicted by the massive evidence of energy conservation in response to higher world energy prices, beginning in 1973. The econometric approach to general equilibrium modeling successfully freed economic policy analysis from the straight jacket imposed by calibration.

This volume presents an econometric approach to general equilibrium modelling of the impact of economic policies. Earlier approaches were based on the "calibration" of general equilibrium models to a single data point. The obvious disadvantage of calibration is that it requires highly restrictive assumptions about technology and preferences, such as fixed input-output coefficients. As a consequence of changes in energy prices and new environmental policies, a historical experience has accumulated over the past two decades. Interpreted within the framework of the neoclassical theory of economic growth, this experience provides essential guidelines for future policy formation.
  1. A Dual Stability Theorem
    Dale W. Jorgenson
      1.1 Introduction
      1.2 Relative Stability
      1.3 Dual Stability Theorem
      1.4 Dual Instability in the Open System

  2. The Development of a Dual Economy
    Dale W. Jorgenson
      2.1 Introduction
      2.2 The Traditional Sector
      2.3 Modes of Development
      2.4 A Dual Economy
      2.5 Agricultural Surplus
      2.6 Fundamental Differential Equation
      2.7 Low-level Equilibrium Trap
  3. The Structure of Multi-Sector Dynamic Models
    Dale W. Jorgenson
      3A Introduction
      3A.1 Two Theorems on Nonnegativity
      3A.2 Multiplier Theory
      3A.3 The Dynamic Input-Output System
      3A.4 The Lagged Accelerator
      3A.5 The Capital Stock Adjustment Model
      3A.6 Irreversibility of Capital Accumulation
      3B Some Further Examples
  4. Testing Alternative Theories of the Development of a Dual Economy
    Dale W. Jorgenson
      4.1 Introduction
      4.2 Evidence: Direct Implications
      4.3 Evidence: Indirect Implications
      4.4 Summary and Conclusion
  5. Surplus Agricultural Labor and the Development of a Dual Economy
    Dale W. Jorgenson
      5.1 Introduction
      5.2 Development of a Dual Economy: A Classical Approach
      5.3 Development of a Dual Economy: A Neoclassical Approach
      5.4 Beyond Disguised Unemployment
      5.5 Summary and Conclusion
  6. U.S. Tax Policy and Energy Conservation
    Edward A. Hudson and Dale W. Jorgenson
      6.1 Introduction
      6.2 Inter-Industry Model
      6.3 Producer Behavior
      6.4 Growth Model
      6.5 Energy Projections
      6.6 Energy Policy
      6.7 Alternative Oil Prices
      6.8 Alternative Tax Policies
      6.9 Conclusion