WORLD CEREALS MARKETS UNDER ALTERNATIVE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORMS / доклад на 25 конференции IAAE, Reshaping Agriculture’s Contribution to Society, International Convention Centre, Durban, South Africa, 16-23 August 2003
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Durban, 2003
Тематический раздел:
Previous quantitative assessments of likely impacts of recent reforms of the Common
Agricultural Policy (in
particular the Agenda 2000) differ across empirical studies. Differences
are mainly due to the ways the
policy instruments are taken into account (explicit modeling or implicit
modeling i.e. using ad-valorem
equivalents). The aim of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts
of recent reforms of the Common
Agricultural Policy and the consequences of the Mid-Term proposals on world cereals
markets. We develop
an econometric, dynamic, multi-product, partial equilibrium commodity model that
focuses on arable crops.
Major exporters and major importers are modeled separately, other countries being
included in a rest of the
world category. For the countries or regions explicitly integrated the model estimates
supply, demand and
trade. The model we develop has two important features:
i) the parameters estimated in the behavioral equations (supply and demand) satisfy regularity conditions and ii) the agricultural policy instruments (in particular CAP instruments) are modeled in an explicit way. In the empirical section, attention focuses on the world cereals market. We provide a market outlook through the year 2009 for three different scenarios: baseline projections and two scenarios based on different assumptions regarding the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (the Mid-Term Review scenario and the decoupling scenario). Estimated effects of the mid-term scenario on EU crop prices depend on the relationship between EU and world market prices. |

Текст доклада
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[251 КБ]
Ключевые слова
agriculture common agricultural policy partial equilibrium model simulation trade world wheat market
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