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THE EFFECTS OF TRADE UNCERTAINTY ON CHRYSANTHEMUM TRADE BETWEEN TAIWAN AND JAPAN / доклад на 25 конференции IAAE, Reshaping Agriculture’s Contribution to Society, International Convention Centre, Durban, South Africa, 16-23 August 2003

Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Chrysanthemum is the primary flower Taiwan exports. However, the exports showed decreasing trend in recent years. The volumes exported were 826,596 kilograms in 2001, and Japan was the major market. About 99% of the chrysanthemum exports went to the Japanese market. Quarantine procedure is one of the measures Japanese government adopts to protect its domestic agricultural production. When chrysanthemum exports fail to pass the quarantine procedure, fumigation is required. According to statistics, the fumigated rate for Taiwan.s chrysanthemum exports to Japan reached 90Ѓ“ during 1996-1997, and was 70% in 1998. Fumigation could damage the quality and the reputation of Taiwan.s chrysanthemum exported. However, the degree of strictness of quarantine applied to the exports varied from time to time, hence caused the chrysanthemum exports facing with trade uncertainty. In addition, quality unevenness of exports, or standards that are not uniformly enforced could also cause trade uncertainty (not all exports are allowed to enter into the importing market).

It is suspected that the strictness of quarantine of a certain commodity is influenced by the domestic market conditions of supply and demand in Japan. During the seasons when Japan can produce enough chrysanthemum domestically, Japan might take stricter quarantine procedure to prevent foreign chrysanthemum exports from entering the Japanese domestic market. Trade uncertainty hence increased since not all of the amount exported each time is allowed to enter into Japan.s chrysanthemum market.

Since global agricultural trade liberalization is an unavoidable trend, non-tariff trade barriers are to be disciplined, it is expected that trade uncertainty of chrysanthemum trade between Taiwan and Japan will be reduced gradually during the process of agricultural trade liberalization in Japan.

The main objective of this study is to explore the possible influences of reducing trade uncertainty of chrysanthemum trade between Taiwan and Japan through quantitative analyses.