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The Use of Models: Experience and prospects/Nobel Lectures, Economics 1969-1980, World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore

Опубликовано на портале: 26-03-2004
Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Company, 1992, cерия "Nobel Lectures", 456 с.
В 1969 году нидерландский экономист Ян Тинберген получил премию памяти Альфреда Нобеля по экономике за создание и применение динамических моделей к анализу экономических процессов. Данная публикация представляет собой его нобелевскую лекцию; в ней автор рассуждает о важности применения математических методов для анализа экономических ситуаций. Лекция написана простым английским языком. Она находится в открытом доступе на официальном сайте.

"In this lecture I propose to discuss the experience we have had with the method of model building as a contribution to economic science and the prospects for its further application. First of all I want to remind you of the essential features of models. In my opinion they are: drawing up a list of the variables to be considered; drawing up a list of the equations or relations the variables have to obey and testing the validity of the equations, which implies the estimation of their coefficients, if any. As a consequence of especially we may have to revise and so as to arrive at a satisfactory degree of realism of the theory embodied in the model. Then, the model may be used for various purposes, that is, for the solution of various problems. The advantages of models are, on one hand, that they force us to present a "complete" theory by which I mean a theory taking into account all relevant phenomena and relations and, on the other hand, the confrontation with observation, that is, reality. Of course these remarks are far from new..."
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