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IMPACTS OF FTAA AND MERCOEURO ON AGRIBUSINESS IN THE MERCOSUL COUNTRIES / доклад на 25 конференции IAAE, Reshaping Agriculture’s Contribution to Society, International Convention Centre, Durban, South Africa, 16-23 August 2003

Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Durban, 2003
Focusing on changes in agricultural policy, this paper examines the economic impacts on MERCOSUL member country economies arising from the creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and a free trade area between MERCOSUL and the European Union (MERCOEURO). Four simulations are run using the Global Trade Analysis Project's (GTAP) applied general equilibrium model. The results suggest these new trade alliances would cause an increase in MERCOSUL agribusiness production and a decrease in manufactures production. In all scenarios, agricultural trade flows are greatly altered, expanding MERCOSUL agribusiness exports. Economic growth for the MERCOSUL countries increases only in the MERCOEURO scenarios. The elimination of agriculture production and export subsidies by members of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and European Union (E.U.) has strong economic impacts on the MERCOSUL member countries.

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