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The economics of adjustment and growth

Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2003
San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 731 с.
The Economics of Adjustment and Growth moves the study of macroeconomics for developing economies away from the traditional static approach and toward a more dynamic, growth-oriented framework. Pierre-Richard Agénor presents an analysis of policy issues involved in designing economic adjustment programs in developing countries and structural reform policies aimed at fostering economic growth. Emphasizing the need to take into account the structural features of these countries, his work dwells on the considerable body of analytical research and empirical evidence of the past two decades in academic circles and international organizations. It provides cutting-edge analysis of many current real-world issues, such as financial crises and the role of trade integration in fostering economic growth. Overall the book offers an impressive overview of the macroeconomic and structural adjustment issues facing developing economies today.

Presenting a modern high-level introduction to development economics, this book moves the study of macroeconomics for developing economies away from the traditional static approach and toward a more dynamic growth-oriented strategy. Dr Agenor presents an analysis of policy issues involved in aspects of economic adjustment policies aimed to fostering economic growth. Emphasising the need to take into account the structural features of these countries, his work reflects IMF and World Bank research of the 1990s and covers both standard textbook subjects, such as open economy macroeconomics, and real-world issues such as financial crises. The book is written for the reader who has a background in macroeconomics, offering an overview of the macroeconomic issues facing less developed countries and capturing some of their energy.

Book provides an analysis of policy issues involved in both aspects of economic adjustment in developing countries. Focuses on policy issues related to short-run macroeconomic adjustment. Includes money demand, the structure of the financial system, and its implications for monetary policy.

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    Introduction and Overview

  1. Consumption, Saving, and Investment
    1. Consumption and Saving
    2. Investment
    3. Summary
      Appendix – Income Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving

  2. The Financial System, Money Demand, and Monetary Policy
    1. The Financial System
    2. Indirect Instruments of Monetary Policy
    3. Credit Rationing
    4. Monetary Policy in a Dollarized Economy
    5. The Demand for Money
    6. Summary
      Appendix – Money Demand and Cointegration

  3. Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and the Current Account
    1. Structure of Public Finances
    2. The Government Budget Constraint
    3. Assessing the Stance of Fiscal Policy
    4. Fiscal Imbalances and External Deficits
    5. Consistency and Sustainability
    6. Sustainability and the Solvency Constraint
    7. Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Deficits
    8. Public Debt and Fiscal Austerity
    9. Summary
      Appendix – The Generalized Solvency Constraint

  4. Exchange Rate Regimes, Credibility and Exchange Rate Adjustment
    1. The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes
    2. Evidence on Exchange Rate Regimes
    3. Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime
    4. Policy Trade-Offs and Exchange Rate Credibility
    5. Exchange Rates, Competitiveness, and the Trade Balance
    6. Devaluation and Output with Imported Inputs
    7. Summary

  5. Inflation and Disinflation
    1. Sources of Inflation
    2. Nominal Anchors in Disinflation Money vs. the Exchange Rate
    3. . Disinflation Programs: The Role of Credibility
    4. Two Recent Stabilization Experiments
    5. Summary
      Appendix – Inflation Persistence and Policy Credibility

  6. Capital Inflows: Causes and Policy Responses
    1. The Surge in Capital Flows
    2. Domestic and External Factors
    3. How Volatile are Capital Flows?
    4. Macroeconomic Effects
    5. Policy Responses
    6. Summary
      Appendix – Measuring the Degree of Capital Mobility

  7. Currency Crises and Financial Volatility
    1. Sources of Exchange Rate Crises
    2. Currency Crises: Recent Experiences
    3. Currency and Banking Crises
    4. Predicting Financial Crises
    5. . Sources and Effects of Financial Volatility
    6. Coping with Financial Volatility
    7. Summary
      Appendix – The Mechanics of Speculative Attacks and the Interest Rate Defense

  8. Aggregate Accounts, Budget Constraints, and Model Consistency
    1. Production, Income, and Expenditure
    2. A Consistency Accounting Matrix
    3. National Income Identities and Budget Constraints
    4. A Three-Good Model with Banks
    5. An Intertemporal Model of the Current Account
    6. Summary
      Appendix – The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Output

  9. Policy Tools for Macroeconomic Analysis
    1. Assessing Business Cycle Regularities
    2. Assessing the Effects of External Shocks
    3. Financial Programming
    4. The World Bank RMSM Model
    5. The Merged Model and RMSM-X
    6. Three-Gap Models
    7. The 1-2-3 Model
    8. Lags and Behavioral Functions
    9. Summary

  10. Growth, Poverty, and Income Distribution: Some Basic Facts
    1. A Long-Run Perspective
    2. Some Simple Arithmetics
    3. Some Basic Facts
    4. Summary
      Appendix – Income Distribution and Polarization

  11. Growth and Technological Progress: The Solow-Swan Model
    1. Basic Structure and Assumptions
    2. The Dynamics of Capital and Output
    3. A Digression on Low-Income Traps
    4. Population, Savings, and Steady-State Output
    5. The Speed of Adjustment
    6. . Model Predictions and Empirical Facts
    7. Summary
      Appendix – Dynamics of k, the Output Effect of s, and the Speed of Adjustment

  12. Knowledge, Human Capital and Endogenous Growth
    1. The Accumulation of Knowledge
    2. Human Capital and Returns to Scale
    3. Human Capital, Public Policy, and Growth
    4. Other Determinants of Growth
    5. Summary
      Appendix – The Savings Trap and Coordination Failures

  13. The Determinants of Economic Growth: An Empirical Overview
    1. Growth Accounting
    2. The East Asian “Miracle”
    3. Growth Regressions and Convergence
    4. The Empirics of Growth: Econometric Issues
    5. . The Econometric Evidence: An Overview
    6. Catching-up or Falling Behind?
    7. Summary

  14. Structural Adjustment: Agriculture, Trade, and the Labor Market
    1. Price Reform in Agriculture
    2. Trade Liberalization
    3. Trade and Regional Economic Integration
    4. Reforming Labor Market
    5. Summary
      Appendix – Measuring Reforms: Structural Policy Indices

  15. Fiscal and Financial Sector Reforms
    1. Fiscal Adjustment
    2. Pension Reform
    3. Interest Rate Liberalization
    4. Unification of Foreign Exchange Markets
    5. Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility
    6. Summary
      Appendix – Models of Tax Evasion

  16. Adjustment and External Debt in Low-Income Countries
    1. Growth, External Debt, and Adjustment
    2. The Debt Overhang and the Debt Laffer Curve
    3. Measuring the Debt Burden
    4. Debt Rescheduling
    5. The HIPC Debt Initiative
    6. Summary
      Appendix – The Theory of Stages in the Balance of Payments

  17. Sequencing, Gradualism, and the Political Economy of Adjustment
    1. Stabilization and Structural Adjustment
    2. The Order of Liberalization
    3. Political Constraints and Economic Reforms
    4. Shock Treatment or Gradual Approach?
    5. Summary
      Appendix – The Costs of Corruption
      Annex A: The Informal Sector and the Urban Labor Market
      Annex B: Informal Financial Markets
      Annex C: Exchange Market Unification

    References

    Index of Names

    Index of Subjects