A non-random walk down Wall street
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999, 448 с.
Тематические разделы:
For over half a century, financial experts have regarded the movements of markets
as a random walk--unpredictable meanderings akin to a drunkard's unsteady gait--and
this hypothesis has become a cornerstone of modern financial economics and many investment
strategies. Here Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay put the Random Walk Hypothesis
to the test. In this volume, which elegantly integrates their most important articles,
Lo and MacKinlay find that markets are not completely random after all, and that
predictable components do exist in recent stock and bond returns. Their book provides
a state-of-the-art account of the techniques for detecting predictabilities and evaluating
their statistical and economic significance, and offers a tantalizing glimpse into
the financial technologies of the future.
The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management. Данную книгу можно скачать здесь. |
Preface
1. Introduction
Part I
2. Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test
3. The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation
4. An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading
5. When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?
6. Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices
Part II
7. Multifactor Models Do Not Explain Deviations from the CAPM
8. Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models
9. Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets
Part III
10. An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices
11. Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices
12. Order Imbalances and Stock Price Movements on October 19 and 20, 1987
References
Index
1. Introduction
Part I
2. Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test
3. The Size and Power of the Variance Ratio Test in Finite Samples: A Monte Carlo Investigation
4. An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading
5. When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?
6. Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices
Part II
7. Multifactor Models Do Not Explain Deviations from the CAPM
8. Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models
9. Maximizing Predictability in the Stock and Bond Markets
Part III
10. An Ordered Probit Analysis of Transaction Stock Prices
11. Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices
12. Order Imbalances and Stock Price Movements on October 19 and 20, 1987
References
Index
Ключевые слова
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Journal of Financial Economics.
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1981.
Vol. 9.
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