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The Impact of USDA Cattle on Feed Reports on the Cattle Market

Опубликовано на портале: 02-06-2004
1999
Организация: Department of Agricultural Economics
Подтип: PhD
Тематические разделы: Экономика, Экономика отраслевых рынков, Экономика отраслевых рынков: Аграрная экономика

Aннотация:
Bridge forecasts of the information contained in the USDA Сattle on Feed (CO F) report (cattle on feed, placements, and marketings) from 36 private industry analysts and a composite forecast were evaluated to determine an appropriate proxy for anticipated information. The majority of forecasts were unbiased and nearly all were efficient. Unbiasedness and efficiency were rejected most often for marketings forecasts and least often for placements forecasts. The composite forecast was biased, but efficient for all variables forecasted. The composite forecast was generally superior to forecasts of individual analysts as well as forecasts from an autoregressive model and thus was used as a proxy for anticipated information. The majority of individual analysts provided statistically similar forecasts. However, some analysts’ forecasts were superior and others were inferior relative to other analysts. Also, some analysts were superior at forecasting some variables but not others indicating they have a comparative advantage in what they forecast. Several analysts provided extreme (high or low) forecasts more often than randomly expected. This may be done to draw attention to their firms because extreme forecasts typically were associated with relatively inaccurate forecasts. However, one analyst that provided extreme forecasts more often than randomly expected was relatively accurate suggesting that particular firm may have superior information to other firms. These results suggest it may be possible to construct an alternative composite forecast that is superior to the composite forecast reported by Bridge.

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