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Improved Prospects for Rural Economic Development An Industry –Targeting System for the Great Plains

Опубликовано на портале: 06-02-2004
Manhattan, 1999
Организация: Department of Agricultural Economics
Подтип: Магистерские
Тематические разделы: Экономика, Экономика отраслевых рынков, Экономика отраслевых рынков: Аграрная экономика

The objective of this research was to create an industry-targeting model for the Great Plains region. The model estimates the probability of 100 aggregate industry sectors locating in any of the 430 counties in six Great Plains states over the 1995 to 2003 time period. The probabilities are based on twenty-three county characteristics that were identified as important determinants of industry location. The model may help local economic development officials identify viable industries for their recruitment efforts. This research consisted of constructing and evaluating two distinct models to explain the relationship between community characteristics and industry location. Logistic regression was used to estimate the coefficients for the two models and these were used to predict business activity for two time periods, 1977-85 and 1986-94. The two models were evaluated as to their predictive accuracy in explaining growth, thus providing a model for predicting future (1995-2003) business activity. An important innovation of this modeling system is the estimation of marginal impacts associated with each of the 23 community characteristics. The marginal impacts show how changes in community characteristics affect the probability of business activity, suggesting potential state and local policy that might improve prospects. The industry-targeted model provides an additional analytical tool for local economic development officials to identify viable industry targets. This will allow for more efficient use of limited local resources for attracting industries and enhancing local economic viability in the Great Plains.