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Circling the Wagons: Middle Class Whites and the Election of Rudolph Giuliani

Опубликовано на портале: 19-05-2004
Melissa Levitt
Научный руководитель: John Hull Mollenkopf
Организация: City University of New York
Подтип: PhD
Тематические разделы: Социология, Экономическая социология, Экономическая социология: Социально-экономическая дифференциация. Бедность, Социальная стратификация

The 1989 and 1993 New York City mayoral elections were decided by only 97,000 votes an extremely small margin. Both elections pitted David Dinkins and Rudolph Giuliani against each other; approximately the same proportion of New Yorkers came to the polls. This dissertation attempts to show that pessimistic outlook of middle class white New Yorkers swung the election toward Giuliani. He was able to tap into the pessimism of this key group, motivating them to come to the polls and vote for change. This dissertation will analyze Census data, cross-sectional survey data and election district data in an effort to prove that members of a single race or class did not determine Giuliani's victory. Instead, his victory was determined by the effect of pessimism on race- and class-based factors. In the end, although much scholarly research appeared to support the original hypothesis of the dissertation, thorough analysis of all three datasets instead proved the opposite true. In the final analysis, the shift in white votes from all income classes toward Giuliani had a markedly smaller impact on the 1993 election than originally predicted. Surprisingly, the movement of Asian and Hispanic voters toward Giuliani had a far greater impact; these voters constituted the small but vital force which swung the election in Giuliani's favor, thus ushering in a new era in New York City politics.

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