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Global financial instability as a «new normality»: Origins, challenges, prospects

русская версия

Опубликовано на портале: 23-10-2017
TERRA ECONOMICUS. 2017.  Т. 15. № 3. С. 32-55. 
The scale of the contradictions in the globalized world, connected with the accelerated population growth in the conditions of limited vital natural resources and aggravation of environmental threats, as well as expanding gap between production rates and the money supply, form a situation of new normality, which is characterized by global financial instability and exacerbation of the currency struggle.The global financial system has excelled at enabling market manipulation, speculation, and insider trading, but has failed at its core task: intermediating savings and investment on a global scale. In next following decades, it will be divided (if abstracted away from the British pound and the Japanese yen) into unstable zones of the predominant influence of US dollar (relatively stable), euro (shrinking) and yuan (growing). Russian ruble will remain on the world periphery, and the expected some increase in its influence will have a predominantly regional character. In general, the world will continue to move to a multipolar financial architecture, the formation of which will be associated with the «warming up» of new hotbeds of financial instability and increasing volatility and systemic risks in the long run.To date the next round of financial contradictions' escalation is beginning, connected with the aggravation of currencies' struggle. Control over production, which is being updated according to rapidly progressing technologies of the Industry 4.0, is on the line of new clashes. It is of fundamental importance, who, using monetary instruments as well, can become the leader of the new industrial structure of the world. By the end of the 2020-ies the main part of the world manufacturing industry will already be covered by the technologies of the industrial Internet of things. In combination with the expected expansion of the scope and strength of the yuan's influence, this will allow us to draw an intermediate line and set new positions of the parties.Further development of events in the field of global finance will be determined by the dynamics and structure of the economic and monetary potential characterizing the power of commodity-money flows of countries of the world. That global player, who, in the course of forming a new industrial structure of the world, will be able to make it more dynamic and balanced, will gain important advantages in the struggle for world leadership.
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