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Structural changes in the Russian grain balance in the conditions of anti-Russian sanctions: regional aspect

русская версия

Опубликовано на портале: 03-08-2018
TERRA ECONOMICUS. 2018.  Т. 16. № 2. С. 122-139. 
Despite the growth of the Russian grain market, the issue of the quality of structural shifts remains insufficiently developed. During the period of anti-Russian sanctions, there are tendencies that indicate the existence of transformation processes in the structure of the balance of the use of grain raw materials. However, at the present stage of development, it can be noted that there are significant restrictions on import substitution.Based on the official state statistics and «Zerno Online» news agency, the structural shifts in the balance of grain use in 62 regions of the Russian Federation were analyzed for the period 2010-2017. Based on the calculation of the Gatev and Ryabtsev indices, the grouping of Russian regions according to the intensity and level of structural shifts in the balance of the use of grain has been carried out, and the mass of structural shifts in the groups obtained has been determined. By the specification of the complex methodology for analyzing the structural shifts of Sukharev, an evaluation of the conditions for import substitution and industrialization on the received groups of regions was carried out. The analysis showed that there were no significant positive structural changes in the balance of use of grain resources. Most of the regions demonstrate the priority of the export component, which is caused by the lack ofdemand for additional crops within the regions. The market situation (including the price level), in turn, is determined by the increase in the volume of exports.From the normative point of view, options for state support in the sphere of deep processing of grain crops, in particular project financing, a special investment contract, as well as revision of excise taxes on bioethanol are considered.
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