@ARTICLE{16590295_1997,
author = {Alho, Juha M.},
keywords = {future population, methodology, official population forecasts, predictive distribution, statistical methods, statistics, математический метод, методология, прогнозирование, прогнозируемое распределение, прогноз численности населения, статистический метод},
title = {Scenarios, Uncertainty and Conditonal Forecasts of the World
Population },
journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in
Society) },
year = {1997},
month = {},
volume = {160},
number = {1},
pages = {71-85},
url = {http://ecsocman.hse.ru/text/16590295/},
publisher = {},
language = {ru},
abstract = {Current official population forecasts differ little from those that
Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology
used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However,
Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this
century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that
they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts.
We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert
judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the
future population. We apply the methods to a world population
forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we
find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population
in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million.
The probability that the world population will exceed the high
scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is
only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations
(UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even
if we consider the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the
possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a
relatively small probability of encompassing the future population. },
annote = {Current official population forecasts differ little from those that
Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology
used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However,
Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this
century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that
they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts.
We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert
judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the
future population. We apply the methods to a world population
forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we
find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population
in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million.
The probability that the world population will exceed the high
scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is
only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations
(UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even
if we consider the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the
possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a
relatively small probability of encompassing the future population. }
}