@ARTICLE{19147284_2007,
    author = {Вишневский, Анатолий Григорьевич and Кваша, Екатерина Александровна and Харькова, Татьяна Леонидовна and Щербакова, Екатерина Михайловна}, 
    keywords = {демография, сельское население, урбанизация, урбанизация в России},
    title = {Российское село в демографическом измерении},
    journal = {Мир России},
    year = {2007},
    month = {1},
    volume = {16},
    number = {1},
    pages = {17-58},
    url = {http://ecsocman.hse.ru/text/19147284/},
    publisher = {},
    language = {ru},
    abstract = {На протяжении многих десятилетий тенденции динамики сельского 
населения России определялись бурно протекавшим процессом 
урбанизации, предопределившим переток огромных масс сельского 
населения в города и непрерывное абсолютное и относительное 
сокращение сельского населения. Однако в последний межпереписной 
период миграционный отток в города спал и стал малозначительным 
фактором сокращения сельского населения. В то же время, с 1992 г. дал 
о себе знать новый фактор сокращения сельского населения - превышение 
числа смертей над числом рождений, естественная убыль. С другой 
стороны, появился новый фактор, замедляющий это сокращение, - 
административно-территориальные преобразования, в результате этой в 
значительной степени формальной меры практически прекратилось 
снижение доли сельского населения во всем населении России. В стране 
становится все больше малолюдных и безлюдных деревень. Сокращение 
числа поселений как следствие убыли сельского населения, с одной 
стороны, и его концентрации в более крупных населенных пунктах, - с 
другой - характерная тенденция последних десятилетий, которая, 
по-видимому, сохранится и в будущем. During many decades the dynamics 
of rural population in Russia were determined by intensive 
urbanization. However recently (between censuses) the migration to 
cities has recessed and became a factor of little significance to the 
reduction of rural population. At the same time since 1992 a new 
factor for the reduction of rural population emerged - natural loss. 
It was though countered by another factor - administrative and 
territorial reforms. These reforms were mostly formal but they caused 
the reduction of rural population to slow down. The number of poorly 
populated villages in country is increasing. It is the result of 
naturally decreasing rural population and its on-going concentration 
in larger settlements. It is obvious for now that such trend will not 
change in future. The changes in rural age structure between 1989 and 
2002 were in many respects favorable owing to the particularities of 
the age pyramid in Russia. The number of women in reproductive age 
grew recently in spite of various social instabilities, and now it is 
as big as never before. Besides, in the whole post-war period there 
hasn't been such a big proportion of people in the working age in 
Russian rural population as it is now. The demographical load in the 
rural population has decreased. The long-term tendency for the moving 
rural concentration from Central areas to the South and Southeast is 
maintained. In the first half of the past century one third of the 
rural population inhabited territories of the modern Central federal 
district. Now it is less than one fifth. In that same time the rural 
population of modern Southern federal territories more than doubled. 
Rural fertility will keep on reducing in long run. The mortality is 
more likely to stagnate or even show some growth, especially among 
men, due to unfavorable changes in expected life interval. The 
negative balance of births and deaths determines the tendency for 
further reduction of rural population. The migration will obviously 
function in this same direction. The process of redistribution of 
population from villages to cities will continue during the following 
20 years. In the following 20 years Russian rural population will be 
ageing and this process will be more intensive than in the cities. 
The proportion of the population in working age will be decreasing 
significantly while the part of the too young or too old to work will 
increase. In case of fertility growth the proportion of children will 
increase. But such rejuvenation will be countered by expected in the 
number of women in reproductive age. A difficult future awaits 
Russian population as a whole but especially sharp looks the problem 
of the future of its rural population. In spite of a notably higher 
level of fertility in comparison with urban population, demographical 
prospects for the rural population promise much less. Even a moderate 
migration to the cities will cause the rural population to lose most 
of its young population, i.e. its demographical future. },
    annote = {На протяжении многих десятилетий тенденции динамики сельского 
населения России определялись бурно протекавшим процессом 
урбанизации, предопределившим переток огромных масс сельского 
населения в города и непрерывное абсолютное и относительное 
сокращение сельского населения. Однако в последний межпереписной 
период миграционный отток в города спал и стал малозначительным 
фактором сокращения сельского населения. В то же время, с 1992 г. дал 
о себе знать новый фактор сокращения сельского населения - превышение 
числа смертей над числом рождений, естественная убыль. С другой 
стороны, появился новый фактор, замедляющий это сокращение, - 
административно-территориальные преобразования, в результате этой в 
значительной степени формальной меры практически прекратилось 
снижение доли сельского населения во всем населении России. В стране 
становится все больше малолюдных и безлюдных деревень. Сокращение 
числа поселений как следствие убыли сельского населения, с одной 
стороны, и его концентрации в более крупных населенных пунктах, - с 
другой - характерная тенденция последних десятилетий, которая, 
по-видимому, сохранится и в будущем. During many decades the dynamics 
of rural population in Russia were determined by intensive 
urbanization. However recently (between censuses) the migration to 
cities has recessed and became a factor of little significance to the 
reduction of rural population. At the same time since 1992 a new 
factor for the reduction of rural population emerged - natural loss. 
It was though countered by another factor - administrative and 
territorial reforms. These reforms were mostly formal but they caused 
the reduction of rural population to slow down. The number of poorly 
populated villages in country is increasing. It is the result of 
naturally decreasing rural population and its on-going concentration 
in larger settlements. It is obvious for now that such trend will not 
change in future. The changes in rural age structure between 1989 and 
2002 were in many respects favorable owing to the particularities of 
the age pyramid in Russia. The number of women in reproductive age 
grew recently in spite of various social instabilities, and now it is 
as big as never before. Besides, in the whole post-war period there 
hasn't been such a big proportion of people in the working age in 
Russian rural population as it is now. The demographical load in the 
rural population has decreased. The long-term tendency for the moving 
rural concentration from Central areas to the South and Southeast is 
maintained. In the first half of the past century one third of the 
rural population inhabited territories of the modern Central federal 
district. Now it is less than one fifth. In that same time the rural 
population of modern Southern federal territories more than doubled. 
Rural fertility will keep on reducing in long run. The mortality is 
more likely to stagnate or even show some growth, especially among 
men, due to unfavorable changes in expected life interval. The 
negative balance of births and deaths determines the tendency for 
further reduction of rural population. The migration will obviously 
function in this same direction. The process of redistribution of 
population from villages to cities will continue during the following 
20 years. In the following 20 years Russian rural population will be 
ageing and this process will be more intensive than in the cities. 
The proportion of the population in working age will be decreasing 
significantly while the part of the too young or too old to work will 
increase. In case of fertility growth the proportion of children will 
increase. But such rejuvenation will be countered by expected in the 
number of women in reproductive age. A difficult future awaits 
Russian population as a whole but especially sharp looks the problem 
of the future of its rural population. In spite of a notably higher 
level of fertility in comparison with urban population, demographical 
prospects for the rural population promise much less. Even a moderate 
migration to the cities will cause the rural population to lose most 
of its young population, i.e. its demographical future. }
}