Journal of International Economics
Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007Richard A. Meese, Kenneth S. Rogoff Journal of International Economics. 1983. Vol. 14. P. 3-24.
This study compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and trade-weighted dollar exchange rates. The candidate structural models include the flexible-price (Frenkel-Bilson) and sticky-price (Dornbusch-Frankel) monetary models, and a sticky-price model which incorporates the current account (Hooper-Morton). The structural models perform poorly despite the fact that we base their forecasts on actual realized values of future explanatory variables