# Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society)

**Applications and Case Studies Improving the Quality of Economic Data: Lessons from the HRS and AHEAD**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2003

*F. Thomas Juster*,

*James P. Smith*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997. Vol. Vol. 92. No. 440. P. pp. 1268-1278.

Missing data are an increasingly important problem in economic surveys, especially
when trying to measure household wealth. However, some relatively simple new survey
methods such as follow-up brackets appear to appreciably improve the quality of household
economic data. Brackets represent partial responses to asset questions and apparently
significantly reduce item nonresponse. Brackets also provide a remedy to deal with
nonignorable nonresponse bias, a critical problem with economic survey data.

**Balanced Estimates of National Accounts when Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The UK, 1920-38**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 04-11-2004

*Solomos Solomou*,

*Martin Weale*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1993. Vol. 156. No. 1. P. 89-105.

It is frequently argued that changes in economic variables are measured more reliably
than their levels. This may happen if measurement errors are autocorrelated. Autocorrelation
should be taken into account in the least squares balancing of national accounts.
Formulae are presented for the error structure which is likely to arise from extrapolation
away from or interpolation between bench-mark observations. Balanced estimates are
presented for the UK national accounts, 1920-38, taking into account the autocorrelation
likely to have been generated in data construction.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003

*David Bawden*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1986. Vol. Vol. 147. No. 1. . P. pp. 78-86.

The role of computer-based information services, and specifically online literature
searching systems, in access to information relevant to applications of statistics
are discussed. The available resources for statistics information per se, applications
of statistics, and background material on applications areas, are outlined. Particular
emphasis is placed on biomedical applications of statistics. The strengths and limitations
of this approach, compared with traditional printed sources, are described, and future
prospects noted.

**Deconstructing Statistical Questions**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*David J. Hand*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994. Vol. 157. No. 3. P. 317-356.

Too much current statistical work takes a superficial view of the client's research
question, adopting techniques which have a solid history, a sound mathematical basis
or readily available software, but without considering in depth whether the questions
being answered are in fact those which should be asked. Examples, some familiar and
others less so, are given to illustrate this assertion. It is clear that establishing
the mapping from the client's domain to a statistical question is one of the most
difficult parts of a statistical analysis. It is a part in which the responsibility
is shared by both client and statistician. A plea is made for more research effort
to go in this direction and some suggestions are made for ways to tackle the problem.

Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003

*Roger Davidson*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 1.. P. pp. 165-173.

This paper explores some of the social and economic forces shaping the development
of official labour statistics in Britain a century ago. It examines the competing
fears and ideologies that fuelled the demand for intelligence about the labour market
and the major constraints on its provision, such as Treasury control, industrial
resistance and the lack of co-ordination between the statistical branches of government.
The broader impact of official labour statistics on social politics is discussed
in both a British and an international context, with particular reference to the
problems of industrial unrest, unemployment and low income destitution. The paper
uses a historical perspective to demonstrate the continuing significance of past
investigations to British labour statistics.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

**Ред.:**

*Peter G. Moore*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1993. Vol. 154. No. 1. P. 23-44.

The Working Party was set up by the Royal Statistical Society because of widespread
criticism of UK official statistics collected and reported by the Government Statistical
Service. That Service has to be of fine quality, earning and enjoying public confidence
and providing accurate, timely and cost-effective data both for governmental and
for public use. The Working Party found no evidence of a lack of integrity among
government statisticians. However, the organizational and operational framework of
the Government Statistical Service is regarded as inadequate. Accordingly four important
sets of recommendations are made. Their acceptance is fundamental for the achievement
of a high quality of service linked to full public confidence in official statistics.

Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2003

*Paul Gregg*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994. Vol. Vol. 157. No. 2. P. pp. 253-270.

The validity of UK unemployment statistics was the focus of intense debate through
the 1980s and again in 1992. This mainly concerned whether they were open to politically
motivated manipulation. To some extent this argument has missed a wider point. Frequent
changes of coverage and consistency between sources of information which provide
measures of unemployment have led to a paucity of data that are suitable for social
scientific study with its implied costs to our understanding of unemployment over
the last 15 years. It is hoped that an increasing reliance on specifically designed
survey techniques, rather than measures based on benefit administration data, will
overcome many of these problems for the 1990s. The design of the Labour Force Survey
should take on board the questions raised by social scientists. In particular, the
shortage of available work should be measured by the broader indicators of social
distress as well as the identification of excess labour supply in the labour market.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*Peter G. Moore*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984. Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 268-277.

The activities of statisticians working in industry or commerce are examined under
three headings: information handling, experimental statistics and risk management.
Some current needs are highlighted and the dilemma between the provision of information
and recommendations for decision explored.

Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003

*David Steel*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997. Vol. Vol. 160. No. 1. . P. pp. 5-46..

Monthly unemployment statistics are available in Britain from a monthly count of
the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. There has been considerable
debate on the appropriateness of this measure. Unemployment and employment statistics
are available quarterly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), using International Labour
Office (ILO) definitions. In this paper various options for producing monthly unemployment
estimates according to the ILO definition are examined. Methods considered are a
monthly LFS, calculating rolling averages from the quarterly LFS, and methods which
combine LFS and claimant count data. It is proposed that a monthly LFS of 60 000
households be introduced which can produce monthly estimates of total unemployment
and more detailed estimates quarterly. Such a survey would also fill an important
gap by providing monthly employment statistics which are needed to provide a complete
picture of the labour market.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*R. L. Plackett*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984. Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 140-150.

The progress of the Royal Statistical Society is recorded from 1934 to 1984. After
a sketch of the statistical background before 1945, subsequent developments are divided
into sections: professional matters, meetings, publications, public policy, management,
organization. Finally, a retrospective view is taken over the whole period.

Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004

*Juha M. Alho*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997. Vol. 160. No. 1. P. 71-85.

Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made
50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology used or in the arguments
used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous
forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that
they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how
simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall
predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world
population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find
that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030
will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world
population will exceed the high scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly,
the probability is only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations
(UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider
the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member
states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future
population.

Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003

*David J. Hand*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1996. Vol. 159. No. 3. P. 445-492.

Just as there are different interpretations of probability, leading to different
kinds of inferential statements and different conclusions about statistical models
and questions, so there are different theories of measurement, which in turn may
lead to different kinds of statistical model and possibly different conclusions.
This has led to much confusion and a long running debate about when different classes
of statistical methods may legitimately be applied. This paper outlines the major
theories of measurement and their relationships and describes the different kinds
of models and hypotheses which may be formulated within each theory. One general
conclusion is that the domains of applicability of the two major theories are typically
different, and it is this which helps apparent contradictions to be avoided in most
practical applications.

Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003

*Eric J. Thompson*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 2. . P. pp. 203-240..

This paper describes the 1991 census in England and Wales: how it was planned and
implemented and how its results are being assessed. The description brings out the
trade-offs that are necessary in undertaking a census, and some respects in which
plans for a census in 2001 will need to take account of experience of that in 1991.

**What is Statistics?**[статья]

Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003

*David J. Bartholomew*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 1. . P. pp. 1-20..

Definitions of statistics abound but many fail to capture adequately the essential
interplay of data and theory. It is argued that the ubiquity of variability and uncertainty,
which characterize a statistical problem, establish the subject as a major player
in science and all rational enquiry. Emphasis is placed on the breadth and unity
of the subject and questions are raised for the Royal Statistical Society about its
balance, publications and role in education

Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003

*Bill McLennan*Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 3. . P. pp. 467-489..

Since the early 1990s significant developments have occurred in official statistics,
including new responsibilities, structures, collections, outputs and policies, and
these will be described briefly for each of these separate but related roles. Similarly,
many challenges remain relating mainly to effectiveness and cohesion which will be
canvassed, together with the plans which are in hand to move the UK official statistical
system forwards. The paper also comments on the international dimension of official
statistics work, emphasizing in particular current developments with the European
statistical system. The future for UK statistics is full of promise and challenges,
and the author expresses his confidence that the Government Statistical Service will
respond positively.