A Diffusion Theory Model of Adoption and Substitution for Successive Generations of High-Technology Products [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-02-2005John A. Norton, Frank M. Bass Management Science. 1987. Vol. 33. No. 9. P. 1069-1086.
This study deals with the dynamic sales behavior of successive generations of high-technology products. New technologies diffuse through a population of potential buyers over time. Therefore, diffusion theory models are related to this demand growth. Furthermore, successive generations of a technology compete with earlier ones, and that behavior is the subject of models of technological substitution. Building upon the Bass (1969) diffusion model, we develop a model which encompasses both diffusion and substitution. We demonstrate the forecasting properties of the model by estimating parameters over part of the data and projecting shipments for later periods.