Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 3
Опубликовано на портале: 28-09-2003Bennett T. Mccallum
The recently-developed fiscal theory of price level determination contends that there is an important class of policy rules in which there exists a unique rational expectations solution that shows the price level to be dependent upon fiscal policy and independent of monetary variables. The present paper argues, however, that there is an alternative solution to these models that has entirely traditional (or monetarist') properties. This latter solution is perhaps the more plausible since it is the solution that is typically regarded as the bubble-free fundamentals' solution. The argument involves a respecification of feasible instrument variables.
Опубликовано на портале: 02-09-2003Guillermo A. Calvo, Carlos A. Vegh
High and persistent inflation has been one of the distinguishing macroeconomic characteristics of many developing countries since the end of World War II. Countries afflicted by chronic inflation, however, have not taken their fate lightly and have engaged in repeated stabilization attempts. More often than not, stabilization plans have failed. The end of stabilizations -- particularly those which rely on a pegged exchange rate -- has often involved dramatic balance of payment crises. As stabilization plans come and go, a large literature has developed trying to document the main empirical regularities and understand the key issues involved. This paper undertakes a critical review and evaluation of the literature related to inflation stabilization policies and balance of payment crises in developing countries.
Опубликовано на портале: 27-04-2004Takatoshi Ito
This paper examines Japanese foreign exchanges interventions from April 1991 to March 2001 based on newly disclosed official data. All the yen-selling (dollar-purchasing) interventions were carried out when the yen/dollar rate was below 125, while all the yen-purchasing (dollar-selling) interventions were carried out when the yen/dollar was above 125. The Japanese monetary authorities, by buying the dollar low and selling it high, have produced large profits, in terms of realized capital gains, unrealized capital gains, and carrying (interest rate differential) profits, from interventions during the ten years. Profits amounted to 9 trillion yen (2% of GDP) in 10 years. Interventions are found to be effective in the second half of the 1990s, when daily yen/dollar exchange rate changes were regressed on various factors including interventions. The US interventions in the 1990s were always accompanied by the Japanese interventions. The joint interventions were found to be 20-50 times more effective than the Japanese unilateral interventions. Japanese interventions were found to be prompted by rapid changes in the yen/dollar rate and the deviation from the long-run mean (say, 125 yen). The interventions in the second half were less predictable than the first half.