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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 52

Авторы:
А Б В Г Д Е Ж З И ЙК Л М Н О П Р С Т УФ Х Ц Ч Ш Щ ЭЮЯ
A B C D E F G H I J K LM NOP QR S T U V WXYZ
 
Названия:
АБВГДЕЖЗИЙК Л МНО П РС ТУФХЦЧШЩЭ ЮЯ
A BC D E F G HI JKLM N O P QR ST U VW XYZ
 

Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Robert J. Barro
2003
A tax-smoothing objective is used to assess the optimal consumption of public debt with respect to maturity and contingencies. This objective motivates the government to make its debt payout contingent on the levels of public outlay and the tax base. If these contingencies are present, but asset prices of non-contingent indexed debt are stochastic, then full tax smoothing dictates an optimal maturity structure of the non-contingent debt. If the certainty-equivalent outlays are the same for each period then the government should guarantee equal real payouts in each period, that is, the debt takes the form of indexed consols. This structure insulates the government's budget constraint from unpredictable variations in the market prices of indexed bonds of various maturities. If contingent debt is precluded, then the government may want to depart from a consol maturity structure to exploit covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the term structure of real interest rates. However, if moral hazard is the reason for the preclusion of contingent debt, then this consideration also deters exploitation of these covariances and tends to return the optimal solution to the consol maturity structure. The issue of nominal bonds may allow the government to exploit the covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the rate of inflation. But if moral-hazard explains the absence of contingent debt, then the same reasoning tends to make nominal debt issue undesirable. The bottom line is that an optimal-tax approach to public debt favors bonds that are indexed and long term.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Lans Arij Bovenberg, Johan J. Graafland, Ruud A. de Mooij
2003
This paper employs MIMIC, an applied general equilibrium model of the Dutch economy, to explore various tax cuts aimed at combating unemployment and raising labor supply. MIMIC combines modern labor-market theories, a firm empirical foundation detailed description of Dutch labor-market institutions. We develop a small aggregate model which contains the core of MIMIC, namely wage setting, job matching, labor supply demand. In addition to illustrating the main economic mechanisms in MIMIC shows the advantages of employing a larger, more disaggregated model that accounts for heterogeneity, institutional details, and more economic mechanisms. Targeting in-work benefits at the low skilled is the most effective way to cut economy-wide unemployment quality and quantity of labor supply. Cuts in social security contributions paid by employers and subsidies for hiring long-term unemployed reduce unskilled unemployment most substantially. Tax cuts in the higher tax brackets boost the quantity and quality of formal labor supply but are less effective in reducing unemployment and in raising unskilled employment and female labor supply.

Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Willem Hendrik Buiter
2003
This note comments on two central issues for fiscal policy design in the UK, highlighted in the recent Code for Fiscal Stability' proposed by the new Labour government. The first concerns the merits of the so-called golden rule of public sector investment' -- the proposition that, over the cycle, government borrowing should not exceed government capital formation. The second concerns the case for attempting to construct a more comprehensive balance sheet of public sector assets and liabilities, including tangible public sector assets and certain contingent claims. The two main conclusions are that the golden rule is without merit but that, subject to some important caveats, the construction of a more comprehensive government balance sheet is a worthwhile enterprise.

Опубликовано на портале: 02-09-2003
Guillermo A. Calvo, Carlos A. Vegh
2003
High and persistent inflation has been one of the distinguishing macroeconomic characteristics of many developing countries since the end of World War II. Countries afflicted by chronic inflation, however, have not taken their fate lightly and have engaged in repeated stabilization attempts. More often than not, stabilization plans have failed. The end of stabilizations -- particularly those which rely on a pegged exchange rate -- has often involved dramatic balance of payment crises. As stabilization plans come and go, a large literature has developed trying to document the main empirical regularities and understand the key issues involved. This paper undertakes a critical review and evaluation of the literature related to inflation stabilization policies and balance of payment crises in developing countries.

Опубликовано на портале: 27-07-2004
Authors study financial fragility, exchange rate crises and monetary policy in an open economy model in which banks are maturity transformers as in Diamond-Dybvig. The banking system, the exchange rate regime, and central bank credit policy are seen as parts of a mechanism intended to maximize social welfare; if the mechanism fails, banking crises and speculative attacks become possible. Authors compare currency boards, fixed rate and flexible rates, with and without a lender of last resort. A currency board cannot implement a socially optimal allocation; in addition, under a currency board bank runs are possible. A fixed exchange rate system may implement the social optimum but is more prone to bank runs and exchange rate crises than a currency board. Larger capital inflows enhance welfare if the no-run equilibrium occurs, but may also render the economy more vulnerable to self-fulfilling runs. A flexible exchange rate system implements the social optimum and eliminates runs, provided the exchange rate and central bank lending policies of the central bank are appropriately designed.
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Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler
2003
Authors study the international monetary policy design problem within an optimizing two-country sticky price model, where each country faces a short run tradeoff between output and inflation. The model is sufficiently tractable to solve analytically. Authors find that in the Nash equilibrium, the policy problem for each central bank is isomorphic to the one it would face if it were a closed economy. Gains from cooperation arise, however, that stem from the impact of foreign economic activity on the domestic marginal cost of production. While under Nash central banks need only adjust the interest rate in response to domestic inflation, under cooperation they should respond to foreign inflation as well. In either scenario, flexible exchange rates are desirable.

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Giancarlo Corsetti, Nouriel Roubini
2003
This paper analyzes optimal spending, tax and financial policies in models of endogenous growth where public spending is productive. We extend previous work in four directions. First, we analyze optimal policies when the government is allowed to borrow and lend, rather than being restricted to run a balanced budget in every period. Second, we develop a model with a separate human capital accumulation sector. Therefore, the properties of optimal policies depend on whether government spending affects the productivity of the final goods sector or the human capital accumulation sector. Third, we consider the policy implications of alternative assumptions about which factor of production benefits from the external effects of productive public goods. Fourth, we study the implications of restrictions on the menu of tax instruments available to the policy maker. We contrast optimal tax rates on human and physical capital under different assumptions on technology and distribution. We analyze the welfare properties of public debt and assets.

Опубликовано на портале: 09-11-2004
Ред.: Paul Davidson
Brookfield: Edward Elgar, 1994, 309 с.
Working from Keyness revolutionary analysis of a money-using entrepreneurial economy, this important new book presents a real world alternative to the basic macroeconomic analytical model. In Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory, Paul Davidson addresses the limitations of conventional mainstream New Classical and New Keynesian analysis for developing successful economic policies.
Important features of this book include an aggregate supply and demand analysis that does not rely on aggregate supply imperfections, such as inflexible wages and prices or co-ordination failures, to demonstrate the existence of involuntary unemployment; the application of Keyness original 1936 closed economy analysis to an open economy engaged in significant international trade in order to resolve international balance of payments problems; and the argument that both old and new Keynesian analytical models were logically incompatible to Keyness analysis, and so led to unsuccessful policies.
Students are encouraged to return to the path of Keyness analysis which can be applied to understand real world economic problems and to design policies to resolve them. Unlike other textbooks, Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory challenges the orthodoxy, providing students of economics with a useful analytical framework as well as a clear understanding of how and why mainstream economics has gone wrong.

Опубликовано на портале: 09-11-2004
Meghnad Desai
Изд-во: Edward Elgar, 1995
Meghnad Desai's work presents a significant challenge to economics as currently practised. This volume brings together a collection of essays on issues in macroeconomics and monetary theory from an unorthodox but rigorous position.
Beginning with a series of essays which address the inflation problem using an extension of the Goodwin model, the volume continues with his revisionist interpretation of the Phillips Curve, assessments of monetarism, discussion of the economics of Keynes and Hayek, and an original paper on monetary theory. Later chapters include the authors work on applied econometrics, endogenous and exogenous money, and financial innovation.
The volume also includes a substantial autobiographical preface, in which Lord Desai explains how he became an economist and the influences behind the development of his thought, as well as a specific introduction explaining how he came to produce the papers included in this volume.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-07-2004
Existing models of contagious currency crises are summarized and surveyed, and it is argued that more weight should be put on political factors. Towards this end, the concept of political contagion introduced, whereby contagion in speculative attacks across currencies arises solely because of political objectives of countries. A specific model of membership' contagion is presented. The desire to be part of a political-economic union, where maintaining a fixed exchange rate is a condition for membership and where the value of membership depends positively on who else is a member, is shown to give rise to potential contagion. We then present evidence suggesting that political contagion may have been important in the 1992-3 EMS crisis.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Sebastian Edwards
New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995
The essays collected in this volume, written by well-known academics and policy analysts, discuss the impact of increased capital mobility on macroeconomic performance. The authors highlight the most adequate ways to manage the transition from a semi-closed economy to a semi-open one. Additionally, issues related to the measurement of openness, monetary control, optimal exchange rate regimes, sequencing of reforms, and real exchange rate dynamics under different degrees of capital mobility are carefully analyzed.
The book is divided into four parts after the editor's introduction. The first part contains the general analytics of monetary policy in open economies. Parts two to four deal with diverse regional experiences, covering Europe, the Asian Pacific region, and Latin America. The papers on which the essays are based were originally presented at a conference on Monetary Policy in Semi-Open Economies, held in Seoul, Korea, in November 1992.
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Government Debt [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Douglas W. Elmendorf, Gregory N. Mankiw
2003
This paper surveys the literature on the macroeconomic effects of government debt. It begins by discussing the data on debt and deficits, including the historical time series, measurement issues, and projections of future fiscal policy. The paper then presents the conventional theory of government debt, which emphasizes aggregate demand in the short run and crowding out in the long run. It next examines the theoretical and empirical debate over the theory of debt neutrality called Ricardian equivalence. Finally, the paper considers the various normative perspectives about how the government should use its ability to borrow.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Martin S. Feldstein
2003
This paper evaluates the welfare gain from achieving price stability and compares it to the cost of the transition. In calculating the gain from price stability, the paper emphasizes the distortions caused by the interaction of inflation and capital income taxes. Because inflation exacerbates the tax distortions that would exist even with price stability, the annual deadweight loss of a two percent inflation rate is a surprisingly large one percent of GDP. Since the real gain from shifting to price stability grows in perpetuity at the rate of growth of GDP, its present value is a substantial multiple of this annual gain. Discounting the annual gains at the rate that investors require for risky equity investments (i.e., at the 5.1 percent real net-of-tax rate of return on the Standard and Poors portfolio of equities from 1970 to 1994) implies a present value gain equal to more than 35 percent of the initial level of GDP. Since the estimated cost of shifting from two percent inflation to price stability is about five percent of GDP, the gain substantially outweighs the cost of transition.

Опубликовано на портале: 27-07-2004
This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward either extreme and away from the middle. The whole spectrum from fixed to floating is covered (including basket pegs, crawling pegs, and bands), with special attention to currency boards and dollarization. One overall theme is that the appropriate exchange rate regime varies depending on the specific circumstances of the country in question (which includes the classic optimum currency area criteria, as well as some newer criteria related to credibility) and depending on the circumstances of the time period in question (which includes the problem of successful exit strategies). Latin American interest rates are seen to be more sensitive to US interest rates when the country has a loose dollar peg than when it has a tight peg. It is also argued that such relevant country characteristics as income correlations and openness can vary over time, and that the optimum currency area criterion is accordingly endogenous.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler, Luis Serven
2003
Using a large sample of developing and industrialized economies during 1970-1999, this paper explores whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the sensitivity of local interest rates to international interest rates. In most cases, we cannot reject full transmission of international interest rates in the long run, even for countries with floating regimes. Only large industrial countries can benefit, or choose to benefit, from independent monetary policy. However, short-run effects differ across regimes. Dynamic estimates show that interest rates of countries with more flexible regimes adjust more slowly to changes in international rates.