Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 32
MAKING SENSE OF AGRICULTURAL TRADE POLICY REFORM / доклад на 25 конференции IAAE, Reshaping Agriculture’s Contribution to Society, International Convention Centre, Durban, South Africa, 16-23 August 2003 [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003David Vanzetti, Ralf Peters
Proposals for agricultural trade reform put forward by the main protagonists remain far apart, with little sign of convergence. In an attempt to progress the negotiations towards a successful outcome, the chairman of the WTO Committee on Agriculture has proposed a compromise. The alternative proposals by the United States, the European Union and the WTO are analysed with the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model, a static, multi-commodity, multi-region, partial equilibrium trade model. The estimated annual global welfare gains are $26 billion, $12 billion and $17 billion respectively. Least developed countries, as a group, gain from the US proposal but are made worse off under the WTO and EU proposals. Furthermore, in the best case many individual countries experience welfare losses. However, all countries enjoy increased export revenues and tariff revenues hold up quite well under the two less stringent proposals.
Projecting World Food Demand - a Comparison of Alternative Demand Systems /доклад на 10 конгрессе ЕААЕ, Exploring Diversity in the European Agri-Food System, Zaragoza, Spain, 28-31 August 2002 [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003Wusheng Yu, Thomas W. Hertel, Paul Preckel, James Eales
Projections of world food demands hinge critically on the underlying functional form used to predict future demands. Simple functional forms can lead to unrealistic projections by failing to capture changes in income elasticities of demand as consumer becomes wealthier. This paper compares several demand systems in the projection of disaggregated food demand across a wide range of countries with different income levels using a global general equilibrium model. We find that the recently introduced AIDADS system represents a substantial improvement over existing demand systems currently in use in CGE modeling. In particular, our projection results show that for relatively poor regions experiencing rapid income growth, the widely used LES and CDE demand systems tend to over-predict growth in consumer demand, and hence import and output requirements for food products and under-predict that for non-food products, compared to the AIDADS system. On the other hand, for high-income regions with modest income growth, the choice of functional form is less critical.