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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 1311

Опубликовано на портале: 02-09-2003
Torsten Persson, Guido Tabellini
2003
This paper surveys the recent literature on the theory of macroeconomic policy. We study the effect of various incentive constraints on the policy making process, such as lack of credibility, political opportunism, political ideology, and divided government. The survey is organized in three parts. Part I deals with monetary policy in a simply Phillips curve model: it covers credibility issues, political business cycles, and optimal design of monetary institutions. Part II deals with fiscal policy in a dynamic general equilibrium set up: the main topics here are credibility of tax policy, and political determinants of budget deficits. Part III studies economic growth in models with endogenous fiscal policy.

Опубликовано на портале: 02-09-2003
Andrew B. Abel, Gregory N. Mankiw, Lawrence H. Summers, Richard J. Zeckhauser Review of Economic Studies. 1989.  No. 56. P. 1-20. 
The issue of dynamic efficiency is central to analyses of capital accumulation and economic growth. Yet the question of what characteristics should be examined to determine whether actual economies are dynamically efficient is unresolved. This paper develops a criterion for determining whether an economy is dynamically efficient. The criterion, which holds for economies in which technological progress and population growth are stochastic, involves a comparison of the cash flows generated by capital with the level of investment. Its application to the United States economy and the economies of other major OECD nations suggests that they are dynamically efficient.
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Intermediate Macroeconomics [учебная программа]
Опубликовано на портале: 02-09-2003
John D. Stiver
Spring 2002
Курс "Макроэкономика: промежуточный уровень" читается в 4 семестре второго курса в Университете Коннектикута.
Основной учебник Abel, Andrew and Ben Bernanke, Macroeconomics 4th Ed, Addison, Wesley, 2001.
Требования к слушателям: "Макроэкономика-1", "Микроэкономика-1", "Высшая математика". В курсе рассматривается широкий крус вопросов, характерных для курса среднего уровня: бизнес циклы, макрорынки, макрополитика, экономический рост, международные аспекты и т.д. Курс не содержит излишне математизированного материала, хотя хорошее знание дифференциального исчисления желательно.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит прикрепленный файл

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Giancarlo Corsetti, Nouriel Roubini
2003
This paper analyzes optimal spending, tax and financial policies in models of endogenous growth where public spending is productive. We extend previous work in four directions. First, we analyze optimal policies when the government is allowed to borrow and lend, rather than being restricted to run a balanced budget in every period. Second, we develop a model with a separate human capital accumulation sector. Therefore, the properties of optimal policies depend on whether government spending affects the productivity of the final goods sector or the human capital accumulation sector. Third, we consider the policy implications of alternative assumptions about which factor of production benefits from the external effects of productive public goods. Fourth, we study the implications of restrictions on the menu of tax instruments available to the policy maker. We contrast optimal tax rates on human and physical capital under different assumptions on technology and distribution. We analyze the welfare properties of public debt and assets.

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Nouriel Roubini, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett
This paper studies the effects of human and physical capital income taxation on growth, and examines how these effects depend on the technologies for human capital accumulation and 'leisure'. It then derives the normative implications of the analysis for the optimal taxation of factor incomes. It is shown that in general both capital and labor (human capital) taxes are growth-reducing. In these cases, the optimal long-run tax on both capital and labor income is zero. The optimal taxation plan consists of taxing both factors in the short run, and financing spending in the long run through accumulated budget surpluses.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Alberto Alesina, Nouriel Roubini, Jerald D. Cohen
New York: MIT Press, 2002
This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of election, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
James Michael Poterba
2003
The design of budget rules and institutions, long a neglected area in public finance and macroeconomics, has recently been thrust to center stage by the debate over a balanced budget amendment and other deficit-reduction measures in the United States. This paper describes the existing evidence on how budget rules affect fiscal policy outcomes. It contrasts the `institutional irrelevance view,' which holds that budget rules can be circumvented by modifying accounting practices and changing the nominal timing or other classification of taxes and expenditures, with the `public choice view' in which fiscal institutions represent important constraints on the behavior of political actors. Several distinct strands of empirical evidence, from the U.S. federal experience with anti-deficit rules, from U.S. state experience with balanced budget rules, and from international comparisons of budget outcomes in nations with different fiscal institutions, suggest that fiscal institutions do matter. These results reject the institutional irrelevance view. The existing evidence is not refined enough, however, to provide detailed advice on how narrowly-defined changes in budget rules might affect policy outcomes.

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Dale W Jorgenson
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1998, Vol. 1, 450 с.
Econometric General Equilibrium Modeling presents an econometric approach to general equilibrium modeling of the impact of economic policies. Earlier approaches were based on the "calibration" of general equilibrium models to a single data point. The obvious disadvantage of calibration is that it requires highly restrictive assumptions about technology and preferences, such as fixed input-output coefficients. These assumptions are contradicted by the massive evidence of energy conservation in response to higher world energy prices, beginning in 1973. The econometric approach to general equilibrium modeling successfully freed economic policy analysis from the straight jacket imposed by calibration.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Torsten Persson, Guido Tabellini
2003
Observed fiscal policy varies greatly across time and countries. How can we explain this variation across time and countries? This paper surveys the recent literature that has tried to answer this question. We adopt a unified approach in portraying public policy as the equilibrium outcome of an explicitly specified political process. We divide the material into three parts. In Part I, we focus on median-voter equilibria that apply to policy issues where disagreement between voters is likely to be one-dimensional. We thus study the general redistributive programs which are typical of the modern welfare state: redistribution between rich and poor, young and old, employed and unemployed, resident of different regions, and labor and capital. In Part II we study special interest politics. Here the policy problem is multi-dimensional and we focus on specific political mechanisms: we study legislative bargaining, lobbying, and electoral competition, as well as the possible interactions between these different forms of political activity. Finally, Part III deals with a set of questions that can be brought under the label of comparative politics. Here we deal with policy choice under alternative political constitutions; we model the rationale for separation of powers and contrast the stylized features of congressional and parliamentary political systems, focusing on their implications for rent extraction by politicians, redistribution and public goods provision.

Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, Adam S. Posen
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001
Inflation Targeting is a groundbreaking study that will have a major impact on the debate over the right monetary strategy for the coming decades. As a unique comparative study of what central banks actually do in different countries around the world, this book will also be invaluable to anyone interested in how economic policy is made.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 31-08-2003
Robert Glenn Hubbard
Boston: Addison Wesley Higher Education, 2002
The Fourth Edition of Money, the Financial System, and the Economy provides students with a clear focus on how economic principles illustrate the evolution and conduct of financial markets and institutions, and how the international developments within these markets and institutions relate to economic performance. The author, R. Glenn Hubbard, provides a timely perspective on key issues through the inclusion of relevant new data and up-to-the-minute real-world applications
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 31-08-2003
Alan J. Auerbach, Kevin A. Hassett
2003
This paper explores optimal fiscal policy in an overlapping-generations general-equilibrium model under uncertainty and the impact on optimal policy of the introduction of a type of policy stickiness intended to account for the stylized fact that major reforms happen infrequently. In general, our analysis suggests not only that action should not be delayed, but further that action should actually be accelerated. The added realism of restrictions on the frequency of policy changes alters this result in two ways. The prospect of being unable to set policy in the future occasions even more precautionary saving today, if the government acts. However, the government may also choose not to set policy, and its inaction range is very asymmetric. Because the impact of its policies on the current elderly cannot be reversed in the future, the government is much more likely to choose inaction when fiscal tightening is called for. Thus, the optimal policy response over time might best be characterized by great caution in general, but punctuated by occasional periods of apparent irresponsibility.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Lans Arij Bovenberg, Johan J. Graafland, Ruud A. de Mooij
2003
This paper employs MIMIC, an applied general equilibrium model of the Dutch economy, to explore various tax cuts aimed at combating unemployment and raising labor supply. MIMIC combines modern labor-market theories, a firm empirical foundation detailed description of Dutch labor-market institutions. We develop a small aggregate model which contains the core of MIMIC, namely wage setting, job matching, labor supply demand. In addition to illustrating the main economic mechanisms in MIMIC shows the advantages of employing a larger, more disaggregated model that accounts for heterogeneity, institutional details, and more economic mechanisms. Targeting in-work benefits at the low skilled is the most effective way to cut economy-wide unemployment quality and quantity of labor supply. Cuts in social security contributions paid by employers and subsidies for hiring long-term unemployed reduce unskilled unemployment most substantially. Tax cuts in the higher tax brackets boost the quantity and quality of formal labor supply but are less effective in reducing unemployment and in raising unskilled employment and female labor supply.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Austan Goolsbee
2003
This paper shows that tax policy toward investment, by changing the relative prices of capital varieties, can have a direct effect on the quality of capital goods that firms purchase. The empirical results indicate that this impact is economically important and readily apparent in disaggregated data on farming, mining, and construction machinery. The paper also applies a general method for aggregation using index number theory which suggests that all of the investment increase generated by tax subsidies comes from buying higher quality capital goods as opposed to buying a larger number of capital goods. It shows, further, that the supply of capital is upward sloping with an elasticity of about one. The tax induced quality changes documented in the paper imply a tax distortion whose deadweight loss is neglected in the conventional literature but whose magnitude indicates may represent a substantial efficiency cost from capital taxation (or subsidy).

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Austan Goolsbee Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1998.  Vol. 113. No. 1. P. 121-148. 
Using data on the prices of capital goods, this paper shows that much of the benefit of" investment tax incentives does not go to investing firms but rather to capital suppliers through" higher prices. The reduction in the cost of capital from a 10 percent investment tax credit" increases equipment prices 3.5-7.0 percent. This lasts several years and is largest for assets with" large order backlogs, low import competition, or with a large fraction of buyers able to use" investment subsidies. Capital goods workers' wages rise, too. Instrumental variables estimates" of the short-run supply elasticity are around 1 and can explain the traditionally small estimates of" investment demand elasticities. In absolute value, the demand elasticity implied here exceeds 1."
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Simon Gilchrist, Charles Himmelberg
Financial variables such as cash flow and cash stocks are robust and quantitatively important explanatory variables for investment at the firm-level. A large body of recent empirical work attributes these findings to capital market imperfections. This interpretation is controversial, however, because even in the absence of capital market imperfections, such financial variables may appear as an explanatory variable for investment if they contain information about the expected marginal value of capital. In this paper, we show how structural models of investment with costly external finance can be used to identify and quantify the fundamental' versus the financial' determinants of investment. Our empirical results show that investment responds significantly to both fundamental and financial factors. Point estimates from our structural model imply that, for the average firm in our sample, financial factors raise the overall response of investment to an expansionary shock by 25%, relative to a baseline case where financial frictions are zero. Consistent with theory, small firms and firms without bond ratings show the strongest response to financial factors, while bond-rated firms show little if any response once we control for investment fundamentals.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Williamson offers a truly contemporary approach to intermediate macroeconomics that builds macro models from micro principles - an approach consistent with how macro research is done today. Strong theoretical underpinnings are balanced by real-world applications in two features - Theory Confronts the Data and Macroeconomics in Action.
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию ресурс содержит графическое изображение (иллюстрацию)

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Mark Gertler CRCSPP. 1999.  Vol. 50 . No. 1. P. 61-110. 
This paper develops a tractable overlapping generations model that is useful for analyzing both the short and long run impact of fiscal policy and social security. It modifies the Blanchard (1985)/Weil (1987) framework to allow for life/cycle behavior. This is accomplished by introducing random transition from work to retirement, and then from retirement to death. The transition probabilities may be picked to allow for realistic average lengths of life, work and retirement. The resulting framework is not appreciably more difficult to analyze than the standard Cass/Koopmans one sector growth model: Besides the capital stock, there is only one additional state variable: the distribution of wealth between workers and retirees. Under reasonable parameter values, government debt and social security have significant effects on capital intensity.
ресурс содержит гиперссылку на сайт, на котором можно найти дополнительную информацию

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler
2003
Authors study the international monetary policy design problem within an optimizing two-country sticky price model, where each country faces a short run tradeoff between output and inflation. The model is sufficiently tractable to solve analytically. Authors find that in the Nash equilibrium, the policy problem for each central bank is isomorphic to the one it would face if it were a closed economy. Gains from cooperation arise, however, that stem from the impact of foreign economic activity on the domestic marginal cost of production. While under Nash central banks need only adjust the interest rate in response to domestic inflation, under cooperation they should respond to foreign inflation as well. In either scenario, flexible exchange rates are desirable.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Martin S. Feldstein
2003
This paper evaluates the welfare gain from achieving price stability and compares it to the cost of the transition. In calculating the gain from price stability, the paper emphasizes the distortions caused by the interaction of inflation and capital income taxes. Because inflation exacerbates the tax distortions that would exist even with price stability, the annual deadweight loss of a two percent inflation rate is a surprisingly large one percent of GDP. Since the real gain from shifting to price stability grows in perpetuity at the rate of growth of GDP, its present value is a substantial multiple of this annual gain. Discounting the annual gains at the rate that investors require for risky equity investments (i.e., at the 5.1 percent real net-of-tax rate of return on the Standard and Poors portfolio of equities from 1970 to 1994) implies a present value gain equal to more than 35 percent of the initial level of GDP. Since the estimated cost of shifting from two percent inflation to price stability is about five percent of GDP, the gain substantially outweighs the cost of transition.