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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 1311

Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
Alan J. Auerbach, Daniel R. Feenberg Journal of Labor Economics. 2000.  Vol. 14. No. 3 . P. 37-56. 
Using the TAXSIM model for the period 1962-95, we consider the federal tax system's impact as an automatic stabilizer. Despite the many changes in the tax system, there has been relatively little change in its role as an automatic stabilizer. We estimate that individual federal taxes offset perhaps as much as 8 percent of initial shocks to GDP. We also suggest that the progressive income tax may help to stabilize output via its effect on the supply of labor, an additional effect that may even be of similar magnitude to the more traditional path of stabilization through aggregate demand.
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Опубликовано на портале: 30-08-2003
John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, John Leahy
Prior research has established that consumption falls significantly at retirement. What is not known is the extent to which this fall is anticipated during the working years. Do working households expect such a large fall in consumption upon retirement, or are they taken by surprise? Using data from a new survey, we show that many working households do expect a considerable fall in consumption when they retire. In fact, those who are already retired report significantly smaller falls in consumption than are expected by those who are still working. We show that participation in the stock market plays a dominant role in explaining the gap between expectations and outcomes, indicating that much of the gap is a result of unexpected stock market appreciation. The survey produces new insights into the high level of uncertainty in the period leading up to retirement, and the surprises that may lie in store when households actually retire.
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Macroeconomics [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Michael C. Burda
New York: Oxford University Press, 2001
Burda and Wyplosz provide comprehensive coverage of intermediate macroeconomics. The clarity and accessibility of the text, together with the use of numerous examples and case studies, combine to make the learning of macroeconomics as simple as possible and to make this new edition one of the finest teaching resources available for contemporary macroeconomics. Completely revised and updated, this new edition contains new material on economic growth, labour markets and unemployment, money supply, inflation, financial and exchange markets, and supply side policies.
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Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Willem Hendrik Buiter
2003
This note comments on two central issues for fiscal policy design in the UK, highlighted in the recent Code for Fiscal Stability' proposed by the new Labour government. The first concerns the merits of the so-called golden rule of public sector investment' -- the proposition that, over the cycle, government borrowing should not exceed government capital formation. The second concerns the case for attempting to construct a more comprehensive balance sheet of public sector assets and liabilities, including tangible public sector assets and certain contingent claims. The two main conclusions are that the golden rule is without merit but that, subject to some important caveats, the construction of a more comprehensive government balance sheet is a worthwhile enterprise.

Macroeconomics [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Olivier Jean Blanchard
Upper Saddler River, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 2003
The fundamental goals of this text are to provide an integrated view of macroeconomics, and to make close contact with current macroeconomic events. This Intermediate Macroeconomics text is organized around a set of core chapters followed by three optional extensions. The core covers the short run, medium run and then long run and is then followed by the three extensions: openness, expectations, and pathologies. The book concludes with a section on policy although policy issues are also sprinkled through most chapters. The book is known for its global emphasis and empirical applications. The Third Edition has simplified many of the more difficult topics. Theoretical material is always presented in three ways: in words, in graphs, and with algebra. For courses in Intermediate Macroeconomics or MBA level Macroeconomics for Managers.
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Макроэкономика [учебная программа]
Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Александр Дмитриевич Смирнов
4 семестр
Основные цели курса - расширить полученные студентами на первом году обучения базовые знания по макроэкономике, развить экономический способ мышления и подготовить студентов к применению логики и методов экономического анализа в последующем обучении. Курс рассчитан на один семестр и читается студентам второго курса.
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Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Robert J. Barro
2003
A tax-smoothing objective is used to assess the optimal consumption of public debt with respect to maturity and contingencies. This objective motivates the government to make its debt payout contingent on the levels of public outlay and the tax base. If these contingencies are present, but asset prices of non-contingent indexed debt are stochastic, then full tax smoothing dictates an optimal maturity structure of the non-contingent debt. If the certainty-equivalent outlays are the same for each period then the government should guarantee equal real payouts in each period, that is, the debt takes the form of indexed consols. This structure insulates the government's budget constraint from unpredictable variations in the market prices of indexed bonds of various maturities. If contingent debt is precluded, then the government may want to depart from a consol maturity structure to exploit covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the term structure of real interest rates. However, if moral hazard is the reason for the preclusion of contingent debt, then this consideration also deters exploitation of these covariances and tends to return the optimal solution to the consol maturity structure. The issue of nominal bonds may allow the government to exploit the covariances among public outlay, the tax base, and the rate of inflation. But if moral-hazard explains the absence of contingent debt, then the same reasoning tends to make nominal debt issue undesirable. The bottom line is that an optimal-tax approach to public debt favors bonds that are indexed and long term.

Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Robert J. Barro, Vittorio Grilli
Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 1994
This major macroeconomics text by Robert Barro and Vittorio Grilli is written from a European perspective. It adopts an open-economy approach and incorporates full treatment of European labour and financial institutions and markets. The authors cover in a rigorous and stimulating fashion the main macroeconomic theories and policy in relation to the components of the macroeconomic environment, including the household, the monetary system, the production process, the government and business cycles, and address the major economic problems of the world today.
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Economic Growth [книги]
Опубликовано на портале: 29-08-2003
Robert J. Barro
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1998
Why do economies grow? What fixes the long-run rate of growth? These are some of the simplest, but also hardest, questions in economics. Growth of lack of it has huge consequences for a country's citizens. But for various reasons, growth theory has had long fallow patches. Happily, this is changing.
In 1956 Robert Solow developed what became the standard neo-classical model of economic growth. Counties grow, on this theory, by accumulating labour and capital. Adding either obeys diminishing returns: the more labour or capital you already have, the more you need for a further given jump in output. One consequence is that an economy with less capital ought to outgrow one with more. Generally, they do. Another is that growth should eventually drop to zero. Awkwardly, it stays positive. To save the theory, long-run growth was explained by an outside factor, technical innovation, which is not in the growth function itself-- hence the label "exogenous" for the Solow family of models.
Partial as it was, the Solow model won wide acceptance and growth theory slumbered for three decades. Then came two changes. One was an attempt to add technical change and other factors to labour and capital within the growth function so that the model might predict long-run growth without leaning on outside "residuals"--the so-called "endogenous" approach. The other was a huge number of factual studies.
Barro and Sala-i-Martin explain all this and more with admirable clarity (and much demanding maths) in the first modern textbook devoted to growth theory. The main theories are examined. The stress throughout is on linking theory to fact. One of three chapters on empirical work suggests how much each of several possible factors would be needed to explain differing international growth rate--not an explanation itself, but an indispensable set of empirical benchmarks.
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Опубликовано на портале: 28-08-2003
Joshua Aizenman, Ricardo Hausmann
2003
This paper investigates budgetary rules for an economy characterized by inflation and volatile relative prices. We view the budgetary process as a limited contingencies contract between the treasury and the ministers. The budgetary process allows a minister, whose realized real budget falls short of a threshold, to ask for a treasury, the minister obtains the extra funds needed to meet the expenditure threshold level. The contract sets both the projected budget and the threshold real expenditure that justifies budget revisions. We identify the efficient contract and show that for significant state verification costs and for low volatility, the contract is non contingent (i.e., a nominal contract). For volatility significant enough the contract becomes state contingent -- it reduces the initial allocation [i.e., the projected budget,] and reduces the threshold associated with budgetary revisions. Both adjustments imply that in volatile economies the projected revenue understates the realized budget hence the average budget error is positive. As volatility increases, the contract converges to a full ex-post indexation. Hence, one of the costs of inflation is that nominal contracts lose their disciplining role in determining the real allocation. Instead, the economy shifts towards more costly arrangements like ex-post indexation, where discipline is accomplished by constant monitoring The last part of the paper uses the data from 12 Latin American countries to test the model's predictions. Our tests confirm that in an inflationary environment the planned budget is under-predicting the realized one -- higher inflation increases the budget error and the average budget error is positive.

Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Robert L. Heilbroner THESIS: теория и история экономических и социальных институтов и систем. 1993.  № 1. С. 41-55. 
Понимание экономической теории как абстрактной науки о рациональном выборе, не связанной с определенной сферой человеческой деятельности, привело к явлению, называемому «экономическим империализмом». Но применение экономического подхода ко всем социальным явлениям имеет, естественно, не только сторонников, но и противников. Против такого расширения предмета экономической науки выступают, в частности, представители институционалистского направления. Ярким примером их аргументации является статья известного американского экономиста и историка экономической мысли Роберта Хайлбронера. Работу Хайлбронера можно рассматривать как своего рода научный диспут с лауреатом Нобелевской премии по экономике 1992 г. Г. Беккером, наиболее авторитетным представителем «экономического империализма».
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Karl Polanyi
Перев.: Алексей Владимирович Белянин (ориг.: Русский) THESIS: теория и история экономических и социальных институтов и систем. 1993.  № 2. С. 10-17. 
Книга экономиста-историка Карла Поланьи «Великая трансформация» является одним из наиболее авторитетных трудов по происхождению рыночной экономики и ее основных институтов. Непосредственная цель работы заключается в том, чтобы выявить социальные последствия функционирования определенной экономической системы, а именно рыночной экономики, полное развитие которой наступило в XIX в. В данной статье, являющейся переводом главы из этой книги, подчеркивается важная роль, которую при становлении саморегулирующейся рыночной экономики сыграло превращение в товары факторов производства. Сведение человеческого существа к простой «рабочей силе», а природы – к «земельной собственности», по мнению Поланьи, превращает Новую историю в высокую захватывающую драму, финал которой наступает в 1920–1930-е годы.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Eric M. Engen, William G. Gale, John Karl Scholz
This paper evaluates research examining the effects of tax-based saving incentives on private and national saving. Several" factors make this an unusually difficult problem. First, households that participate in, or are eligible for, saving incentive plans have systematically stronger tastes for saving than other households. Second, the data indicate that households with saving incentives have taken on more debt than other households. Third, significant changes in the 1980s in financial markets, pensions, social security, and nonfinancial assets interacted with the expansion of saving incentives. Fourth, saving incentive accounts represent pre-tax balances, whereas conventional taxable accounts represent post-tax balances. Fifth, the fact that employer contributions to saving incentive plans are a part of total employee compensation is typically ignored. A major theme of this paper is that analyses that ignore these issues overstate the impact of saving incentives on saving. We show that accounting for these factors largely or completely eliminates the estimated positive impact of saving incentives on saving found in the literature. Thus, we conclude that little if any of the overall contributions to existing saving incentives have raised private or national saving.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Benoit Mulkay, Bronwyn H. Hall, Jacques Mairesse
This paper is a contribution to the small but growing literature that compares the investment and R&D behavior of manufacturing firms in large developed countries that have varying financial and capital market institutions. Specifically, we look at two similar samples of French and United States firms during the period 1982-1993. We estimate a dynamic specification of a simple error-corrected investment model for both ordinary investment and for R&D investment, a model that incorporates both output (sales or turnover) and cash flow as predictors for investment. Our focus is on two comparisons: France versus United States and physical investment versus R&D investment. In general, we do not find any significant differences between the two countries in the long run effects of demand (output) on investment. However, we do find that cash flow or profits appear to have a much larger impact on both R&D and investment in the U.S. Except for the well-known difference in the serial correlation of the two types of capital spending, we reject any significant differences between investment and R&D behavior for each country; the major differences are between countries.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Nicholas S. Souleles
This paper provides one of the first comprehensive analyses of the household data underlying the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. This data is used to test the rationality of consumer expectations and to assess their usefulness in forecasting expenditure. The results can also be interpreted as characterizing the shocks that have hit different types of households over time. Expectations are found to be biased, at least ex post, in that forecast errors do not average out even over a sample period lasting almost 20 years. People underestimated the disinflation of the early 1980's and in the 1990's, and generally appear to underestimate the amplitude of business cycles. Forecasts are also inefficient, in that people's forecast errors are correlated with their demographic characteristics and/or aggregate shocks did not hit all people uniformly. Further, sentiment is found to be useful in forecasting future consumption, even controlling for lagged consumption and macro variables like stock prices. This excess sensitivity is counter to the permanent income hypothesis [PIH]. Higher confidence is correlated with less saving, consistent with precautionary motives and increases in expected future resources. Some of the rejection of the PIH is found to be due to the systematic demographic components in forecast errors. But even after controlling for these components, some excess sensitivity persists. More broadly, these results suggest that empirical implementations of forward-looking models need to better account for systematic heterogeneity in forecast errors.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Jonathan A. Parker, Motohiro Yogo
This paper evaluates the return on equity using novel data on the consumption of luxury goods. Specifying household utility as a nonhomothetic function of the consumption of both a luxury good and a basic good, we derive and evaluate the riskiness of equity in such a world. Household survey and national accounts consumption data overstate the risk aversion necessary to match the observed equity premium because they contain basic consumption goods. The risk aversion implied by equity returns and the consumption of luxury goods is more than an order of magnitude less than found using national accounts consumption data. For the very rich, the equity premium is much less of a puzzle.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Alan J. Auerbach
This paper deals with several issues regarding the causes and implications of recent and projected U.S. federal budget deficits. It considers why deficits have remained so large in spite of deficit reduction efforts, evaluates the impact of the recent policies of the Clinton administration, and offers long-range deficit projections. Among the paper's findings are: 1. Until the past year, deficit projections over the past decade have been consistently too optimistic; had initial projections for the current fiscal year proved accurate, the deficit-reducing policies of the early 1990s already would have driven the federal budget well into surplus; there is no single explanation for these large and systematic forecasting errors. 2. The budget rules that legislators have developed to control deficits, including those now in effect, are ill-designed for their apparent purpose. They fail to compensate for forecasting errors and encourage shifts in the timing of revenues and expenditures. The paper presents evidence that such shifting has followed the incentives of the different schemes. 3. The projected decline in the deficit as a share of GDP over the next few years reflects not only the policies already enacted but also the continuation of significant real reductions in discretionary spending -- representing a drop of 2.2 percent of GDP between 1994 and 2004. 4. Even if such optimistic forecasts prove to be correct, longer run projections suggest that current fiscal policy is unsustainable. Without any growth in the relative price of health care, the demographic transition still is projected to lead to sharp increases in Social Security and Medicare benefits as a share of GDP, and primary deficits of nearly 4 percent of GDP.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Robert J. Barro
Optimal debt management can be thought of in three stages. First, if taxes are lump sum and the other conditions for Ricardian equivalence hold, then the division of government financing between debt and taxes is irrelevant, and the whole level of public debt is indeterminate from an optimal-tax standpoint. Second, if taxes are distorting, then the timing of taxes will generally matter; for example, it may be desirable to smooth tax rates over time. This consideration makes determinate the levels of debt at various dates, but does not pin down the composition of the debt, say by maturity. Finally, if there is uncertainty about real interest rates, levels of public outlay, GDP, and so on, then the relation of tax rates to states of nature becomes important. In some cases, optimal taxation dictates the smoothing of tax rates over states of nature, and this element may pin down the composition of the debt. For example, the maturity structure can be designed to insulate the government's financing costs from shifts in real interest rates. This paper studies dynamic optimal taxation in an equilibrium model that yields a form of tax smoothing as a basis for debt management. The main analysis uses a tractable form of the one-sector stochastic growth model. The type of taxation that yields the clearest results on tax smoothing is a proportional levy on consumption. In a simple benchmark case, optimal debt management entails the issue of indexed consols. More generally, payouts on debt would also be contingent on aggregate consumption and the level of government spending.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Andrew B. Abel
This paper develops a tractable stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze the equilibrium equity premium and growth rate of the capital stock in the presence of a defined-benefit Social Security system. If the Social Security Trust Fund increases the share of its portfolio held in risky capital, the equilibrium equity premium falls in the following period and along a constant growth path. This change in the portfolio of the Social Security Trust Fund will increase the growth rate of capital in the following period, and, if a certain sufficient condition is satisfied, will increase the growth rate of the capital stock along a constant growth path. Calibration of the model indicates that it can match the historical average equity premium and the historical average growth rate of the capital stock using plausible values of the preference parameters. In addition, the sufficient condition for the growth rate of the capital stock to increase along a constant growth path is satisfied. Quantitatively, the effects on the riskless interest rate and the growth rate of capital are small.
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Katsunori Watanabe, Takayuki Watanabe, Tsutomu Watanabe
This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that more than 80 per cent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule.
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